WNBA Picks
No plays for us last night in the lone WNBA game, and frankly, I’m glad because that game went wildly off script between the Indiana Fever and the Atlanta Dream, totaling over 200 points in a Dream win. Friday has a three-game slate for us, featuring the Connecticut Sun hosting the Toronto Tempo, the New York Liberty hosting the Washington Mystics, and the Minnesota Lynx visiting the Golden State Valkyries. Here are the TSI projections for Friday’s games.
Connecticut Sun (+1) vs Toronto Tempo, O/U 165.5
Connecticut’s losing streak is up to six games, despite them taking some major steam last game and again in this game at home. They’re getting outscored 89-81 in that span, with an average game grade of -8.5 points below the average WNBA team. Toronto comes in having lost three straight by a margin of 100-84 points per game. TSI projects Toronto -1.5 with a total of 176. The line has moved towards the Under. I don’t understand that at all, as the lowest formula I have projects 170+ in this game. Connecticut home games have averaged four points more per game than their road games, and Toronto road games have averaged 12 more points per game than their home games. I am not going to hesitate to take the Over here against what I deem as a bad line move.
Bet: Over 165.5 (Play to 169.5)
New York Liberty (-13) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 167.5
The Liberty escaped Chicago with a one-point win, their eighth straight, where they’ve outscored opponents 89-79 on average over that span. Washington finally got a road win, albeit against Connecticut, but even that win posted only a -2 (points below average) game grade. They’ve been terrible on the road all season, where their power rating is 11 points worse than at home. Against playoff-caliber teams, that number is even worse; they’re 16.5 points worse on the road against those teams. TSI projects Liberty -12.5 with a total of 163.5 in this game. I love the Under here, as Washington road games have been about four points lower than expected on average, and against playoff teams, that number is 9.5. New York home games have been about 4.5 points lower than expected, and against non-playoff teams, that number is even a tad lower.
Bet: Under 167.5 (Play to 165.5)
Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) vs Minnesota Lynx, O/U 163.5
Man, what a matchup we have on this Friday night. Golden State has now won four straight games after a bit of a lull where they went 1-3, improving mostly on the defensive end, holding teams 10.8 points below their averages in that span. Minnesota has looked the part of the best team in the league, although they seem to have an Aces problem. The Lynx have won 10 of 11 by an average of 95-77. TSI projects a pick ‘em with a total of 167 here, and I should note that this is a “circled schedule spot”, as Minnesota is playing their 4th game in a week with back-and-forth travel, making this their third road game in that four-game span. Golden State has been about 4.5 opponent-adjusted points better at home this season, averaging three more points and allowing three fewer points per game at home. Minnesota has been merely a point worse on the road, but still 10 points above average, so I don’t expect a drastic drop off in performance simply because it’s a road game, but the schedule factor certainly could exacerbate that a bit. I’d lean Over here, but with Golden State’s trending defense and Minnesota’s fatigue possibly playing a role, I need to just pass altogether. I should note that these “schedule spots” are 7-1 since May 25th (after the first couple weeks of the season), so I may put a recreational sprinkle on the Valks’ ML just for kicks.
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