WNBA Picks
It was a really disappointing weekend for us, betting-wise, in the WNBA. Losing Indiana -11.5 when they had a 20-point lead with four minutes to go was brutal, and then there were just some bad plays by me despite the process being good. Chicago somehow beat Minnesota as 4.5-point underdogs in their fourth road game in a week, so kudos to them and a bad L by me. Nonetheless, the show goes on, and we’ve got a doubleheader Monday night featuring the Mystics traveling to Dallas to take on Paige Buckers and the Wings, while a couple of bottom-feeders battle it out as the Portland Fire will host the Connecticut Sun. Here are the TSI projections for those games:
Dallas Wings (-4.5) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 171.5
Dallas has been relatively disappointing so far this season after winning the opener against Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever. They’ve lost two straight to Atlanta and Minnesota and will look to get on track against Washington at home. The Mystics are 2-1 with both wins coming on the road. Dallas is just 6th in opponent-adjusted TSI offensive rating and 11th on defense, while Washington is #13 on offense but #1 on defense so far. TSI projects Dallas -3 with a total of 169.5. I think Washington is a little underrated and Dallas a little overrated at the moment so I’m going to back the Mystics on the road.
Bet: Mystics +4.5 (play to +4)
Portland Fire (-4) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 173
Unlike last year when Connecticut was terrible AND seemingly disinterested, this year they are at least competing so far. They took Vegas down to the wire last week but are still 0-4 to start the year. Portland, the expansion team, is just 1-2 in their own right but did beat the Liberty – albeit shorthanded. Portland is actually second in TSI offensive rating but just 13th on defense. Connecticut is 14th on offense and dead last on defense. TSI projects Portland -6.5 with a total of 179. I’m definitely backing Portland and would lean Over here as well.
Bet: Fire -4 (Play to -5)
Lean: Over 173
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