MLB Best Bets Today May 18
Usually Monday slates in MLB are more limited than what we’ve got today. There are 14 games on the schedule, as only a couple of NL teams – the Pirates and Cardinals – enjoy the day off. Well, for now, as games in Detroit, Kansas City, and Minneapolis are all threatened by rain. The other thing about today’s schedule is that there are no day games. Our first game starts at 6:40 p.m. ET with four scheduled first pitches and everything else will be after.
If we do get all of today’s games, wind will be a big factor, with breezes knocking down balls to RF in Detroit, while the games in Kansas City and Chicago are expected to have some helping gusts.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for May 18:
Texas Rangers (-149, 9.5) at Colorado Rockies
8:40 p.m. ET
The roller coaster weather pattern continues in Colorado as the Rangers and Rockies fire up a weekday set. On their last homestand, the Rockies had a game snowed out. They came back home to 80-degree weather last week, but that is definitely not the case today, with temps in the low 40s and a little bit of rain floating around.
MacKenzie Gore and Jose Quintana are the listed starters here, as we get a couple of southpaws. Gore has a 4.50 ERA with a 4.04 ERA and a 3.95 FIP over his 48 innings of work. It seems like some positive regression came into play last time out, as he allowed just a solo homer and two other hits over eight solid innings against Arizona. He only struck out five of the 28 batters he faced in that start with a 7.4% SwStr%, a 45.5% Hard Hit%, and a couple of Barrels allowed.
Gore has worked 24 innings on the road and has allowed a .239/.358/.435 slash with a .355 wOBA, which would be +55/+124/+125 and +111 compared to his home numbers at pitcher-friendly Globe Life Field. Rangers pitchers have allowed 109 runs in 25 games on the road compared to 59 runs in 21 games at home.
The numbers for Quintana aren’t very impressive, but he has an ERA under 4.00 because of all the weak contact he has induced. He has a 33.6% Hard Hit% with a 7.1% Barrel%. The crafty vet draws a Rangers team that only has 44 PA against LHP over the last 14 days and a .203 wOBA in that small sample. For the season as a whole, the Rangers are batting .193/.277/.269 against LHP with a .255 wOBA. They’ve only hit four homers in 369 plate appearances in that split.
Lastly, for a dome team like the Rangers, tonight’s conditions seem pretty suboptimal. They’re not great for the Rockies either, but this will be Texas’s first outdoor game since May 7. I’ll take a shot with Colorado here.
Pick: Rockies +124
Athletics (-131, 9) at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 p.m. ET
A bullpen meltdown cost the A’s the chance at taking the rubber match against the Giants and making for a happier flight to Orange County, but the A’s get right back at it tonight against the Angels. The Halos have dropped six in a row, eight of nine, and 21 of 26 since getting off to an 11-10 start. Meanwhile, the .500 Athletics lead the AL West.
J.T. Ginn and Walbert Urena are the listed starters today. Ginn checks in with a 3.12 ERA, 3.84 xERA, and a 4.20 FIP, as his 80.4% LOB% is doing yeoman’s work. But, he’s only allowed a 33.9% Hard Hit% and a 6.5% Barrel%, so he’s done a really good job of limiting hard contact throughout the season, leading to a .261 BABIP against. Also, he’s walked one or zero batters in five of his seven starts and all three relief appearances. He had a couple control blow-ups against Cleveland and Texas a few weeks apart, but mostly throws a lot of strikes otherwise.
The 22-year-old Urena has made five MLB starts and has allowed 10 runs over 25.2 innings of work. He has a 24/14 K/BB ratio with a high rate of ground balls and only two homers allowed. He has a 3.51 ERA with a 2.62 xERA and a 3.88 FIP as a starter. But, I do worry about the control problems against a pretty patient A’s lineup. Urena only has a 45.2% F-Strike% and pitching behind in the count is rarely useful for a pitcher. Batters ahead in the count are only batting .219 with a .214 BABIP. That’s one key area of regression lurking for Urena.
The A’s have a top-10 offense over the last 14 days with a wOBA that ranks seventh in baseball. The Angels rank 26th in wOBA over that span. With the Athletics coming off of a three-error effort yesterday, they should be extra motivated to get back on track, while it seems like every day at the ballpark is a grind for the Angels.
Pick: Athletics -131
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks (-142, 9)
9:40 p.m. ET
NL West rivals come together at Chase Field with Robbie Ray and Zac Gallen on the bump for their respective teams. Ray checks in with a 3.04 ERA, 4.58 xERA, and a 4.92 FIP, as the long ball has had a big impact on his xERA and FIP. He’s served up 10 meatballs in his 50.1 innings across nine starts thus far. Not surprisingly, seven of them have come on the road, so that’s the concern here as he heads to the desert.
But, in usual Robbie Ray fashion, the home runs are really the only significant issue. He’s given up 18 runs in total with those 10 homers playing a big role. He’s stranded over 91% of runners with nearly a strikeout per inning, plus home runs wipe the bases clean. You would think that Ray has been getting hit hard, and he has allowed 16 Barrels for an 11.9% Barrel%, but he only has a 33.6% Hard Hit% against overall. He generates enough chase and enough swings and misses in the zone to be effective.
While Arizona is eighth in wOBA against LHP, they have only hit 10 HR in that split. Over the last 14 days overall, the Snakes are only batting .219/.314/.339, while the Giants are a top-10 lineup with a .319 wOBA. They’ve gotten on track from a power standpoint and rank fourth in the league with 18 HR in that period. They’re also hitting .253/.311/.441 over the last two weeks against RHP.
Gallen has allowed 17 runs on 19 hits over his last three starts with just 12 strikeouts against seven walks. He continues to get hit hard with a 5.02 ERA, 5.33 xERA, 4.68 FIP, and a 44.6% Hard Hit% with a 10.1% Barrel%. He’s allowed five Barrels in his last two starts. He also has just an 8.3% SwStr% on the year, despite being ahead in the count a lot. Unlike Ray, he’s not getting many in-zone Whiffs and that has definitely been a problem.
The Giants bullpen has 3.85 FIP over the last couple of weeks, so hopefully their high-leverage guys can protect a lead if given one.
Pick: Giants +118
