WNBA Picks
Despite what I felt like was a solid handicap, the Liberty and Fever game sailed over the total to give us a loser on the only bet of Saturday. But, we live to fight another day and there’s a four-game slate on Sunday to extract value from, featuring the Dallas Wings vs Seattle Storm, Portland Fire vs Washington Mystics, Toronto Tempo vs Las Vegas Aces, and Chicago Sky vs Indiana Fever. Here are the TSI projections for Sunday, August 23rd.
Dallas Wings (-8.5) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 174.5
Dallas, despite beating Indiana last game, has been about five points below its season average over the last three games with Azzi Fudd out for the season with a knee injury. Seattle has been 1.5 points worse than their season average over the last three games, but as is always the case with Seattle, they’re abysmal on the road; they’ve been seven points worse on the season when playing away from Seattle. Similarly, Dallas has been five points better at home this season so the home/road splits definitely favor Dallas here. However, TSI projects Dallas -3.5 with a total of 167, so there appears to be value on Seattle and the Under. I have no interest in betting Seattle on the road here, and I considered the Under, but digging deeper into the home/road game totals, these teams have actually had some high outputs lately, so I’m going to pass altogether.
Portland Fire (+5.5) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 166.5
Portland has been 2.5 points better than their season average over the last three games, while Washington has been 4.5 points better than theirs over that span. The Fire are averaging almost 96 points per game at home over their last five home games, while Washington has managed just 77 per game over their last five road contests. TSI projects Washington -2 with a total of 163.5. I don’t want to play an Under on the Fire, as they’ve got both the offensive (complimentary) and defensive (derogatory) ability to sail games over totals. I’m going to fade Washington on the road here and play Portland.
Bet: Portland Fire +5.5 (play to +4.5)
Toronto Tempo (+14.5) vs Las Vegas Aces, O/U 181.5
The big story here is the dynamic duo of Marina Mabrey and Brittney Sykes are both out (again) for Toronto, so their recent trends really aren’t relevant without those two. The Aces have been a half point worse over the last three games, and have given up 91 points per game in their last five road games. TSI projects Aces -8.5 with a total of 180, but adjusting for Mabrey and Sykes being out would make this around Aces -13.5, so not enough to pull the trigger. We just don’t have enough data on Toronto without these two stars to feel good about a play here.
Chicago Sky (+3) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 186.5
Sydney Taylor came back for Chicago after missing several games with an injury and hit yet another game-winner for them. Indiana is coming off a tough loss to New York Saturday so this is a good spot for Chicago at home, where they’ve been eight points better this season, and Indiana has been five points worse away from Indianapolis. TSI projects Indiana -9.5 with a total of 182. Frankly, I feel like TSI is way too strong on Indiana here. I’d love to back Chicago, but at this number it would be irresponsible to fade TSI.
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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