Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for July 7. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Tuesday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Tuesday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110) vs. Braves
Braves at Pirates – 6:40 pm ET
This season, Skenes is averaging 6.6 strikeouts per game, with that number going up to 7.7 per game at home. Well, the Pirates are hosting the Braves tonight, so Skenes will be going to work in pitcher-friendly PNC Park. And while this isn’t the greatest matchup in the world, I do expect the righty to shine. While social media likes to rip Skenes to shreds, he has still had several dominant outings this year. The Braves have also cooled down considerably after a hot start to the year, and they actually rank dead last in MLB in wRC+ (85) since May 15.
Tarik Skubal Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+120) vs. Athletics
Athletics at Tigers – 6:40 pm ET
I normally try to avoid these absurdly high strikeout totals, but Skubal really should be able to race through this A’s lineup several times. This season, the Athletics have a strikeout rate of 24.4% and whiff percentage of 27.5% when facing left-handed pitchers. Well, this isn’t just a left-handed pitcher, it’s the left-handed pitcher. Skubal has dealt with some injuries this year, but he comes into this one off back-to-back performances in which he struck out nine batters against the Yankees. I see him hitting the nine-K mark again tonight.
Jacob deGrom Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+100) vs. Angels
Angels at Rangers – 8:05 pm ET
DeGrom comes into this start off three consecutive outings with at least eight strikeouts. Tonight, he enters the game with a total of 7.5, which is pretty high — and I just got done saying I hate taking high totals. But it make sense the number is set at 7.5, as the Angels have the league’s highest strikeout rate (25.0%) and aren’t far off when it comes to whiff percentage (27.4%). Of course, deGrom only had three strikeouts the last time he got a crack at Los Angeles. But he’s too good not to turn it around and bury them here.
Additional Picks
Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-160) vs. Oriole
CJ Abrams Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120) vs. Astros
Seth Lugo Over 15.5 Outs (-120) vs. Mets
Payton Tolle Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120) vs. White Sox
Jake Cronenwroth Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110) vs. Diamondbacks
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Victor Bericoto Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-142) vs. Blue Jays
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.84 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -532 — a +25.5% edge to the Over.
TJ Freidl Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-133) vs. Phillies
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.63 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -413 — a +23.4% edge to the Over.
James Outman Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-142) vs. Athletics
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.64 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -413 — a +21.8% edge to the Over.
