WNBA Picks
We’ve got three games in the WNBA tonight, featuring the Toronto Tempo hosting the Golden State Valkyries, the Connecticut Sun hosting the Minnesota Lynx, and the Indiana Fever visiting the LA Sparks. We were able to cash the Liberty/Wings Under last night, so let’s look to keep it rolling tonight. Here are the TSI projections for Wednesday night.
Toronto Tempo (+7.5) vs Golden State Valkyries, O/U 167.5
Toronto scores six fewer points per game at home than on the road, but gives up 12 fewer points per game. Golden State scores three fewer points on the road and allows three more points defensively. The Tempo have struggled against playoff teams, as their power rating in games against them has been three points lower than against non-playoff teams. Golden State has been two points better against non-elite competition. TSI projects Golden State -5.5 with a total of 167 in this game, and Golden State has been playing almost double their season power rating average over the last five games, so I think they could be in for some regression here in a sell-high spot.
Bet: Tempo +7.5 (Play to +6.5)
Connecticut Sun (+7.5) vs Minnesota Lynx, O/U 167.5
This is a rematch of a couple days ago, where Connecticut beat Minnesota at Minnesota, as Olivia Miles sat out with a calf injury. She is likely out again on Wednesday, so Minnesota will have to muster some toughness not to lose twice in a row to the worst team in the league. Connecticut has been six points better at home this season, although Minnesota has been a point better on the road. TSI projects Minnesota -11 with a total of 167.5, and I’d be very surprised if Minnesota didn’t bounce back in a big way here tonight, Miles or not.
Bet: Lynx -7.5 (Play to -8.5)
LA Sparks (+6.5) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 184.5
Caitlin Clark is probable for this game, after missing the last game in Vegas. LA has turned into a dumpster fire without Kelsey Plum and Cameron Brink in the lineup, giving up 103 points per game in their last five, while only scoring 86 per game in that span. TSI projects Fever -1.5 with a total of 180, but I’m not sure TSI has caught up to how bad LA is at the moment, so I’m going to pass altogether and just take another data point on the Sparks’ new look, as Indiana has been playing about four points better than its season average over the last five games.
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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