France vs Morocco | 2026 FIFA World Cup Quarterfinal | Thursday, July 9 | 4 p.m. ET | Gillette Stadium | Foxborough
France (-170) | Draw (+285) | Morocco (+500)
Over 2.5 Goals (-105) | Under 2.5 Goals (-120)
France -0.5 (-175) | Morocco +0.5 (+140)
We are down to eight teams, and Thursday’s quarterfinal at Gillette Stadium sees tournament favorites France (+180 to lift the trophy) face Morocco (+2800), the only African nation left in the tournament, in a repeat of the 2022 World Cup semifinal.
France ground out a 1-0 win over a physical Paraguay side left unchecked by the referee in the Round of 16 at Philadelphia Stadium, needing a VAR-awarded penalty to break down La Albirroja’s stubborn 10-man low block. Kylian Mbappé converted from the spot in the 69th minute to take his tournament tally to seven goals, and France’s players deserve credit for keeping their composure as the referee lost control of the match and Paraguay tried to bait them into retaliation.
Morocco weathered being dragged down to Canada’s level in an energetic and physical first half before taking command in a 3-0 win at Houston Stadium to reach a second straight World Cup quarterfinal. Azzedine Ounahí filled the void left by injured leading scorer Ismaël Saibari with a knockout-stage brace—a first-time sweep from an Achraf Hakimi set piece in the 50th minute and a clinical counter-attack finish in the 82nd—before Soufiane Rahimi added a stoppage-time third to make Morocco the first African nation to reach back-to-back World Cup quarterfinals.
Two of the world’s best footballing sides proved in the Round of 16 that they can get their hands dirty and stand their ground against opposition who want to make it ugly. That sets up nicely for Thursday’s quarterfinal, which is an absolute must-watch and potential tie of the tournament.
FRANCE TEAM NEWS
The thigh injury that ruled Aurélien Tchouaméni out of the Paraguay game is likely to keep him out of this one as well. The Real Madrid central midfielder is back training individually and should be available for the semis and final if France progress.
I talked previously about Didier Deschamps going to a 4-3-3 as France come up against better opposition and we’re at that stage. Morocco’s quality in central midfield can’t be ignored, and Deschamps’ pragmatic nature will see Bradley Barcola making way. With Tchouaméni out I’d like to see Warren Zaïre-Emery get the nod. The 20-year-old has been brilliant for PSG this season and is a real talent. The only other option is N’Golo Kanté.
The only other injury concern for France is Marcus Thuram. Michael Olise, Manu Koné and Barcola will all be suspended for the semifinal if they pick up a yellow card—or not, depending on who phones who.
France Predicted Lineup 4-3-3
Manager: Didier Deschamps
GK: M. Maignan
RB: J. Koundé | CB: W. Saliba | CB: D. Upamecano | LB: L. Digne
CM: M. Koné | CM: A. Rabiot | CM: W. Zaïre-Emery
RW: M. Olise | CF: K. Mbappé (C) | LW: O. Dembélé
MOROCCO TEAM NEWS
Morocco’s fitness concerns center around Ismaël Saibari. He pulled up with a hamstring strain and was replaced in the 22nd minute against Canada. Morocco will be doing everything they can to get their top scorer fit and ready.
If he doesn’t make it, Rahimi—who replaced him and scored—will lead the line. Redouane Halhal will continue at center back if Chadi Riad hasn’t returned to full fitness. Halhal, Achraf Hakimi, Azzedine Ounahí, Bilal El Khannouss and Issa Diop will all be suspended for the semifinal if they find themselves in the referee’s book again.
Morocco Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Manager: Mohamed Ouahbi
GK: Bono
RB: A. Hakimi (C) | CB: I. Diop | CB: C. Riad | LB: N. Mazraoui
CM: A. Bouaddi | CM: N. El Aynaoui
RW: B. Díaz | AM: A. Ounahí | LW: B. El Khannouss
CF: S. Rahimi
MATCH BREAKDOWN
When France beat Morocco 2-0 in the 2022 semifinal, Les Bleus were widely seen as the side that spoiled the party and ended the fairytale. Four years on, Morocco have evolved into a genuine force, hardened by the experience of Qatar and strengthened by their run to this year’s controversial AFCON title. The emergence of youngsters like Ayyoub Bouaddi, Gessime Yassine and Bilal El Khannouss has increased the talent pool available to Mohamed Ouahbi, who took charge just three months before the tournament. In that short time, he has shaped a side that retains the mental toughness and defensive discipline that carried them so far in Qatar but now dominates possession, plays to their technical strengths and takes the initiative too.
Deschamps won’t be underestimating them. As I mentioned above, I’m confident we’ll see a shift to a 4-3-3—he historically sets up not to lose in knockout ties and knows central midfield will be the key battleground. Bouaddi and El Aynaoui have been excellent in this tournament—composed on the ball, relentless without it—and losing Tchouaméni to injury is the last thing France needed heading into this matchup.
I think Zaïre-Emery is the right call if Deschamps wants to match Morocco’s technical quality in the middle despite not playing a minute yet. The 20-year-old is a highly composed, press-resistant midfielder renowned for his tactical maturity and defensive intelligence. He’s no stranger to big occasions either, having been thrown in at emergency right-back away to Bayern Munich in the Champions League semifinal this season and not looking out of place.
This Morocco side won’t be intimidated by the occasion either, but they’ll be desperate for Saibari to make it. He’s their top scorer in this tournament with three and offers a direct, physical presence—a focal point who can hold the ball up, bring others into play and finish. There’s a reason Bayern Munich signed him. I don’t think he’ll make it, though. Without him, Morocco looked out of sorts in the first half against Canada. Rahimi did well when he came on, but he’s known for his intelligent runs behind defensive lines rather than being a focal point. It’ll be interesting to see how he performs against Dayot Upamecano and William Saliba—two center backs blessed with pace.
The shift to a 4-3-3 does come at a cost for France. Olise likely moves to the right wing—his natural position at Bayern—which restricts his ability to drift inside and create from central areas where he’s been at his most dangerous. On the left, Dembélé could interchange positions with Mbappé, who loves to drift out to that flank, giving France a fluid front three that’s harder to track and could create headaches for Morocco’s backline.
Four goals conceded in five matches tells you everything about this Morocco defense. They’ve kept clean sheets against Scotland and Canada and even when they’ve conceded—against Brazil, Haiti and the Netherlands—they’ve never looked like a side about to collapse. Hakimi’s ability to balance his marauding attacking runs with defensive responsibility against Dembélé—or Mbappé if the two interchange—will be one of the game’s key matchups. Morocco can and will drop deep when the occasion demands it, but France should be wary—this is a side that’s at its most dangerous on the counter, especially with Rahimi’s pace leading the line.
All of this makes for a fascinating encounter—France’s star power and Deschamps’ pragmatism against a Morocco side that returns with the quality and experience they lacked in 2022.
THE BET
I know everything I’ve written hinges on Deschamps switching to a 4-3-3, but I’ve followed him long enough to know this is par for the course. He tightens up in the knockout rounds—he always has. Morocco’s midfield ran rings around Casemiro and Bruno Guimarães in Brazil’s 4-2-3-1 and dominated possession (70%) against Ryan Gravenberch and Frenkie de Jong in the Netherlands’ 3-4-2-1. Sticking with the 4-2-3-1, leaving four attackers on the pitch, would leave France exposed in central midfield—a risk that goes against the core of Deschamps’ footballing philosophy.
For my bet, I’m combining France Moneyline (-170) and Under 3.5 Goals (-320) into a Same Game Parlay at +108. Everything I’ve outlined above supports both legs. Deschamps playing not to lose, Saibari unlikely to feature, Morocco’s defensive discipline and improved technical ability, Saliba and Upamecano having the pace to match Rahimi—it all points to a tight, cagey contest with few goals.
When it comes down to it, France have the deeper hand to play. If the game is still tight heading into the last 20 minutes, Deschamps can introduce Barcola and Désiré Doué off the bench—two players who would star for most sides in this tournament. Morocco’s bench doesn’t carry that same attacking weight, especially without Saibari.
The party-crasher narrative is done. Morocco belong at this level now and could go further if they didn’t have France standing in their way—a side that hasn’t lost a World Cup quarterfinal since 2014 under Deschamps.
Pick: Same Game Parlay France Moneyline and Under 3.5 Goals +108
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