Eero 400 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
After the Shane Van Gisbergen debacle that was Naval Base Coronado two weeks ago, we bounced back nicely with a great simulation run at Sonoma last week, getting another outright winner with SVG and scoring two top-3s, three top-5s and seven top-10s as well. We netted profits in just about every area. We are done with road courses for the season. It’s all ovals from here, and typically we see higher-graded tracks on my handicap-ability scale, particularly when they are flat tracks or “cookie cutters.” In fact, as the Cup Series returns to Chicagoland Speedway for the first time since 2019, we see a solid grade of B. Since the series hasn’t been to Chicagoland in seven years, however, the basis for this week’s handicapping and simulation will be the cookie-cutter races run over the last season-and-a-half. In which case, our primary attention will turn to drivers like Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick and Kyle Larson.
Chicagoland Speedway is a 1.5-mile oval in Joliet, Illinois, that was built in the late 1990s era of similar tracks going up across the country. Those similar venues, which still have at least one race per year in the top series, include Homestead-Miami Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway. We’ve been to two already in 2026, with Hamlin winning at Las Vegas and Reddick taking the most recent run at Kansas in May. Expect drivers to use similar car setups to those run at those two earlier races, especially if they were successful. If not, you could see something completely different. This week’s race at Chicagoland helps cap a much-anticipated 250th anniversary for America weekend.
As is the case at these cookie-cutter tracks elsewhere, the most important simulation factors are how each driver has done on similar tracks and how they are doing recently. Based on those factors, Hamlin, Reddick and Larson pretty much separate themselves from the rest of the field. Having not been at these types of venues in almost two months, however, this might be a chance for a live underdog to steal the checkered flag. You can see some of my favorite live underdogs in the predictions section below. Still, I probably wouldn’t discount the qualifying and practice results on Friday and Saturday, as they are sure to have an impact on the final simulation.
Not surprisingly, the odds board for this week at DraftKings is dominated by the drivers I have already mentioned, with Hamlin (+320) the favorite, followed by Reddick (+550), Larson (+600) and Christopher Bell (+850). No one else is better than +1000.
Before digging into what to look for statistically at Chicagoland, here’s a quick wrap-up of the encouraging results from Sonoma, and an overall look at how our simulation projections have fared in terms of betting results to date through 18 races. As you consider these numbers, remember how big of a hit they all took last week simply because Van Gisbergen failed to finish at Coronado despite ridiculous and unbeatable prices.
Initial Sonoma simulation winner: Winner SVG (+1 units) – NOW +1.35 units for the season
Final Sonoma Simulation winner: Winner SVG (+1 units) – NOW +33.55 units for the season!
Final Sonoma Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: one winner, one loser – total return 0 units – NOW +25.85 units for the season
Final simulation top 3 Sonoma projections: two winners, one loser, SVG -600, Gibbs +550 – total return +5.5 units – NOW +1 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Sonoma projections: three winners, two losers, SVG -1000, Larson +145, Gibbs +260 – total return +3.05 units – Now -14.25 units for the season
Final simulation top 10 Sonoma projections: seven winners (SVG, Larson, Gibbs, Blaney, McDowell, Briscoe, Bell), three losers – total return +3.05 units – Now -36.05 units for the season
Another SVG DNF would have essentially killed our numbers for the season. I can’t caution you enough not to ever take top-3s, top-5s and top-10s at the levels they have been the last two weeks with him. Anything can happen, and the only bet I would ever do at major favorite prices is on the “to win” option. The risk is minor, the chances are probable. That’s not a horrible recipe. Unfortunately, while I didn’t get harmed that badly on my bankroll, the numbers I am required to post above did. Hopefully we can recover quickly with several highly graded tracks coming up.
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter …
Final simulation top 5 Sonoma projections: three winners, two losers, SVG -1000, Larson +145, Gibbs +260 – total return +3.05 units – Now -26.1 units for the season
Top Sonoma long shots to win: four losers – total return -4 units – Now -9 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Sonoma: Bell (5th), Byron (12th), Elliott (17th), Wallace (22nd) – Now 53 for 70 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10!
I continued my run of success in nailing three of four drivers I picked to struggle and finish outside the top 10, hitting at a 75.7% clip for the season.
Looking ahead to Chicagoland on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the seven cookie-cutter track races run over the last season and a half, and here are the leaders during that time frame in specific racing categories. Again, I have decided to limit the number of drivers I am looking at in these stat leaders to those most offered on the typical betting platforms:
Average STARTING POSITION last seven Cookie Cutter Track Races
1. Kyle Larson: 6.14
2. Christopher Bell: 7.43
3. William Byron: 8.43
4. Denny Hamlin: 8.43
5. Tyler Reddick: 9.43
6. Chris Buescher: 9.57
…
25. AJ Allmendinger: 22.43
26. Ricky Stenhouse: 23.71
27. Shane Van Gisbergen: 23.86
28. Todd Gilliland: 27.14
29. Brad Keselowski: 29.86
30. Connor Zilisch: 30.5
Average PRACTICE SPEED last seven Cookie Cutter Track Races
1. Darrell Wallace: 3.14
2. Tyler Reddick: 8.43
3. Christopher Bell: 9
4. Kyle Larson: 10
5. Denny Hamlin: 10.57
6. William Byron: 10.86
…
25. Todd Gilliland: 25.29
26. Brad Keselowski: 26
27. Ryan Preece: 28.14
28. Connor Zilisch: 28.5
29. Shane Van Gisbergen: 29
30. Joey Logano: 30.57
Average RUNNING POSITION last seven Cookie Cutter Track Races
1. Kyle Larson: 4.29
2. Tyler Reddick: 8.86
3. Denny Hamlin: 9.29
4. Christopher Bell: 9.57
5. Chase Elliott: 9.86
6. Alex Bowman: 11.33
…
25. Erik Jones: 22.43
26. Ricky Stenhouse: 23
27. Michael McDowell: 23.71
28. Todd Gilliland: 26.14
29. Shane Van Gisbergen: 27.57
30. Connor Zilisch: 30.5
Average LAPS LED last seven Cookie Cutter Track Races
1. Kyle Larson: 81.57
2. Denny Hamlin: 64.29
3. Ryan Blaney: 18.57
4. Christopher Bell: 17.71
5. Darrell Wallace: 13.43
6. William Byron: 13.14
…
23. Ryan Preece: 0
24. Ty Gibbs: 0
25. Noah Gragson: 0
26. Austin Dillon: 0
27. AJ Allmendinger: 0
28. Ricky Stenhouse: 0
29. Shane Van Gisbergen: 0
30. Connor Zilisch: 0
Average DRIVER RATING last seven Cookie Cutter Track Races
1. Kyle Larson: 125.93
2. Denny Hamlin: 111.3
3. Christopher Bell: 99.47
4. William Byron: 98.07
5. Tyler Reddick: 97.96
6. Chase Elliott: 96.06
…
25. Erik Jones: 55.1
26. Ricky Stenhouse: 54.51
27. Michael McDowell: 53.66
28. Todd Gilliland: 48.27
29. Shane Van Gisbergen: 42.06
30. Connor Zilisch: 31.75
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last seven Cookie Cutter Track Races
1. Kyle Larson: 256.29
2. Chris Buescher: 226.71
3. Tyler Reddick: 226
4. Christopher Bell: 217
5. Denny Hamlin: 213
6. Chase Elliott: 208.14
…
25. Michael McDowell: 37.86
26. Ricky Stenhouse: 37.57
27. Erik Jones: 34.71
28. Shane Van Gisbergen: 32.86
29. Todd Gilliland: 18.14
30. Connor Zilisch: 2
Best AVERAGE FINISH last seven Cookie Cutter Track Races
1. Kyle Larson: 4
2. Chase Briscoe: 6.29
3. Chris Buescher: 10
4. Chase Elliott: 10.29
5. Christopher Bell: 10.43
6. Denny Hamlin: 10.57
…
25. Ricky Stenhouse: 22.86
26. AJ Allmendinger: 23.29
27. Ryan Blaney: 25.14
28. Carson Hocevar: 27
29. Shane Van Gisbergen: 28.71
30. Connor Zilisch: 30.5
Obviously, Larson is the dominant driver on most of these lists. However, he is currently on a long winless streak. Could this finally be the race that he breaks through in 2026? It sure looks like it could be. However, I would be cautious betting too much against Hamlin or Reddick, as they’ve been the dominant drivers on more standard tracks this season, and after running a triangle and two road courses over the last three races, surely they will be eager to get back onto an oval. In fact, looking back at the two cookie-cutter track races run so far this season, the winners were Hamlin (Las Vegas) and Reddick (Kansas).
With all of these stats in mind, my top-rated simulation drivers for cookie-cutter tracks are Hamlin, Larson, Bell, Elliott, Briscoe. For recent ratings, the top 5 are Larson, Gibbs, Blaney, Hamlin, Reddick. A reminder that the most important simulation factor for cookie-cutter tracks in general has been how each driver fares at similar tracks and current momentum. All of this goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the NASCAR HUB at VSiN.com.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after qualifying, which is set for 3 p.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which WILL change a bit on Sunday in the morning VSiN Newsletter), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Larson, Hamlin, Reddick, Elliott, Bell
Top underdogs to consider: Blaney, Byron, Elliott, Wallace
Favorites to fade: Logano, Chastain, Gibbs, Keselowski
The 267-lap event at Chicagoland Speedway is set for 6 p.m. ET Sunday.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds and much, much more.
