MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, July 2.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
12:35 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Pirates starting pitcher Jared Jones owns a 5.76 ERA this season, but his 4.79 fielding independent with nine strikeouts per nine innings points toward positivity. Phillies starting pitcher Alan Rangel has pitched better than his 4.50 ERA would indicate, posting a 2.77 fielding independent with 9.8 strikeouts and 1.5 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that ranks 17th in scoring with fewer than 4.5 runs per game.
Pick: Pirates vs. Phillies Under 10 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.9
3:10 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies
The Marlins have yet to announce a starting pitcher, but Ryan Gusto should factor into this game in some capacity. While his ERA sits at 5.06, he has allowed just one run over 7 2/3 innings in his last two appearances and is backed by a bullpen that ranks third in ERA at 3.38. Rockies starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen has been hit hard this season, posting a 6.83 ERA that balloons to 8.20 at home.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -126
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -139
6:40 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
White Sox starting pitcher Davis Martin has been the ace of the staff this season, posting a 3.00 ERA and a 2.91 fielding independent with 0.6 home runs and 2.3 walks allowed per nine innings. The Guardians rank last in the American League in scoring this season with just over 3.9 runs per game and have averaged fewer than 3.3 runs per game over their past 25 contests. Guardians starting pitcher Slade Cecconi owns a 4.18 ERA with seven strikeouts and 2.9 walks per nine innings, but he has pitched significantly better of late, allowing three runs or fewer in 10 straight starts and two runs or fewer in nine of those outings. At home, his ERA drops to 3.26 with just 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: White Sox vs. Guardians Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.3
7:15 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
The Braves were deliberating overnight whether to give Hurston Waldrep or Grant Holmes the start, but regardless of who gets the ball, they will be backed by the league’s best bullpen with a 2.76 ERA. Cardinals starting pitcher Dustin May owns a 4.30 ERA but a better 3.32 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs and 2.4 walks allowed per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks 21st in ERA at 4.37.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -112
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -128
8:05 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
Tigers starting pitcher Framber Valdez is down to a career-low 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings this season, and his ERA has risen to 4.05. Rangers starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi owns a 3.95 ERA with 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings, but that mark drops to 3.24 over his past 14 starts. He also faces a Tigers lineup that ranks 24th in road scoring with 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline -124
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -139
9:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
Angels starting pitcher Walbert Ureña has been a bright spot for the club, posting a 3.14 ERA while allowing just 0.6 home runs per nine innings. However, he is prone to early exits because he issues 4.6 walks per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA at 4.61. Mariners starter Bryce Miller is enjoying a career year with a 1.97 ERA and 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings, though his 3.06 fielding independent and 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings suggest some regression. He faces an Angels lineup that ranks seventh in road scoring with just under five runs per game.
Pick: Angels vs. Mariners Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
