A major champion will be crowned on Sunday, and it is going to be a must-see TV event. The mix of names at the top features a variety of players that have experienced tremendous success and also those for which winning this tournament would be truly life-changing.
Obviously picking up a big check out of the $20.5 million prize purse is going to be significant for all of the players in the running, but to be called a major champion is something that players like Aaron Rai, Ludvig Aberg, Matti Schmid, Chris Gotterup, Max Greyserman, and others have dreamed of. Meanwhile, those who have climbed that mountain are in the mix, including Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy.
Whoever handles the pressure the best may very well be the one lifting the Wanamaker Trophy at day’s end.
PGA Championship third-round scores
PGA Championship final-round tee times
VSiN’s golf experts offered their third-round observations and final-round predictions . . .
Kelley Bydlon
Well it’s a great looking leaderboard with big time names near the top as we head into the final round of the PGA Championship. I was high on Alex Smalley heading into the week, having bet a top 20 on him, so I might be one of the few that actually thinks he can win this thing. In fact, I think the outright price on him at +485 (DraftKings) offers some value. He has a two shot lead on a course where we have seen for three rounds it’s hard to make up ground. I will be adding that small to my bets for the week but nothing else as of now. Any fourth round matchup plays I make will be posted at vsin.com.
Wes Reynolds
Day 3 of the PGA Championship saw scoring improve over the first two days as the field averaged a score of even par 70.00 after two days of averaging +2.2 and +2.6 strokes over par.
Just as we all expected, Alex Smalley, a 175/1 longshot, has a two-shot lead at 6-under par. Smalley has his first ever 54-hole lead in his 141st start on the PGA TOUR. He is 5/1 to earn his maiden TOUR win at a major championship no less. The 29-year-old started out 3-over par in his first four holes and then the crowds left he and Maverick McNealy (-3; 25/1) final group. Once that happened, Smalley regathered himself and shot 5-under over his final 15 on Saturday.
Smalley will be in the final group tomorrow with Matti Schmid (30/1), who like his playing partner, is seeking his first professional victory after shooting a 5-under 65 on Saturday and gaining +4.15 strokes putting.
This championship is still wide-open, but Jon Rahm (+450) is the slight favorite, and he will be in the penultimate pairing with Nick Taylor (18/1). Taylor led the field for Strokes Gained: Approach and gained +4.28 strokes with his irons.
Ludvig Åberg (6/1) and Aaron Rai (18/1) are also at 4-under. Åberg might have a piece of the lead if he could have made some putts. The Swede is my closest chance to win an outright bet on Sunday.
Many players including Schmid, Taylor, along with Rory McIlroy (-3; 7/1), Xander Schauffele (-3; 12/1), and Patrick Reed (-3; 22/1) took advantage of the calmer early conditions and posted numbers before the brunt of the wind picked up in the afternoon.
Some players in the final groups struggled including World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (-1; 16/1), who ranked 74th in the field out of 82 players Saturday for Strokes Gained: Putting. Cameron Young (E; 105/1), who had been arguably the best player in the world over the last two months, was even worse by losing -3.3 strokes with the putter and ranking 81st out of 82 players that made the weekend cut.
In terms of an outright winner, I will be rooting for Åberg, of course. However, I will just say “good luck” at picking an outright winner out of this bunched leaderboard. Hopefully you have one or a couple in the hunt tomorrow. Regardless, it should be a fun final round with lots of twists and turns, and we will know the winner of the Wanamaker Trophy. The one winner that is already for sure is Aronimink Golf Club, which has been a great test for this elite field.
I will have a couple of matchups overnight and tomorrow morning at VSiN.com/picks.
Matt Youmans
It’s impossible for anyone to know who’s going to win this major, but it is possible for all of us to guess, and when bettors are guessing it’s good for the bookmakers. With 21 players within three strokes of leader Alex Smalley, action will be sprayed all over the live betting board Sunday. None of that action will be from this guy. No adds for me. I’m basically drawing dead with bets on Maverick McNealy (12-1), Chris Gotterup (14-1) and Scottie Scheffler (+500). McNealy was one shot behind Smalley before McNealy bogeyed the 18th and Smalley birdied.
My guess at the winner would be Rory McIlroy, who’s +770 at DraftKings. After opening with a 74, McIlroy has figured it out with rounds of 66 and 67. I will root for Smalley, a 160-pound Cinderella story. Smalley has zero PGA Tour wins. I’ll root for Smalley mostly because veteran Las Vegas bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich bet him at 160-1 odds before the tournament.
Scheffler, who’s five strokes back, is not worth a shot at 17-1 or higher. He’s tied for 23rd and must jump too many players to get there. Scheffler missed an easy five-foot birdie putt on the first hole and that set the tone for his clueless Saturday on the greens. He missed at least five putts inside 10 feet. Jimmy Fraser, a wily golf bettor from California, said, “Old ladies could have kicked in some of the putts Scottie missed today.”
Some of those putts have to start falling, and my prediction is Scheffler will finish with a 67, yet it’s too little and too late. Aronimink is a dull golf course and the play has not been great to watch, but the final round will be wide open and wild, so that’s a positive.
Matt Brown
- Alex Smalley leads by two at six under, and I genuinely believe there are 12 to 15 players alive to win this golf tournament tomorrow. The real question is whether anybody in that pack can go out and put together a special 6 or 7 under round. This course has proven it can bite back hard, but it can also give if you’re locked in. Sunday is going to find out who wants it.
- Your Round 3 outliers: Matti Schmid gained over 4 strokes with the putter and Nick Taylor gained over 4 strokes on approach. Both are now sitting at four under, two shots back. On the other side, Ludvig Aberg lost 1.7 strokes putting, Scheffler lost nearly 2.3 strokes with the flat stick, Cameron Young lost 3.3 strokes putting, and Si Woo Kim lost nearly 3.5 strokes on approach. Stats like that are basically a roadmap for who has something left in the tank on Sunday.
- The course played a little better today and I’m still not in love with the setup, but at least we finally saw some separation off the tee. The first two days there was essentially zero reward for what you did with the driver. Today you could actually see guys take advantage. That matters.
- Xander’s irons have been garbage all week. He’s at three under sitting three back, and honestly if he cleans that up even a little, I love him at plus money for a live top five. The ball-striking version of Xander Schauffele at a major is a terrifying thing.
- I like Alex Smalley. I’ve bet him a bunch over the last couple years. But the man has never won on the PGA Tour, and I have a hard time seeing him hold off this particular group of savages chasing him down on a Sunday at a major. We’ll see. Root for him either way.
- Buckle up. This is going to be an incredible Sunday.
Best Regards,
Matt Brown
Host: Ready, Set, Bet/Long Shots
@MattBrownM2
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