Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA playoff game on 5/17. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Winning game 6 has provided a good boost for game 7 in the second round, as these teams riding the positive momentum have gone 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS (76.9%) in their last 13 chances.
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-4.5 vs CLE)
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 357-269 SU but 292-319-15 ATS (47.8%) over the last seven seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 53-79-1 ATS (40.2%).
System Match (FADE ATS): DETROIT (-4.5 vs CLE)
Unders are the wager of choice in second round game 7’s lately, 9-6 in the last 15 (60%).
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DET (o/u at 206.5)
NBA Second Round Trends/Systems
Trends by Line/Total Range
Laying big points with home teams has not worked out well for bettors in the second round recently, as hosts laying 8.5 points or more have gone 23-12 SU but just 12-23 ATS (34.3%) since 2016! This is in direct contrast to the first round numbers we saw a couple of weeks ago. All other home favorites are 77-55-1 ATS (58.3%) in that span.
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-4.5 vs CLE)
Last Game Trends
Teams have struggled in the second round when coming off of same series losses and playing on the road, having gone just 16-33 SU and 20-29 ATS (40.8%) in the follow-up contests in their last 49 playoff tries.
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+4.5 at DET)
Trends by Game Number
Favorites have been far from automatic lately in game 7s, going just 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS (38.5%) in their last 13 tries, although OKC did whip Denver 125-93 in 2025 with the series on the line.
Trend Match (SLIGHT FADE): DETROIT (-4.5 vs CLE)
Winning game 6 has provided a good boost for game 7, as these teams riding the positive momentum have gone 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS (76.9%) in their last 13 chances.
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-4.5 vs CLE)
Not surprisingly, Unders are the wager of choice in game 7s lately, 9-6 in the last 15 (60%).
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DET (o/u at 206.5)
Trends by Seed Number
#1 seeds are on a 19-9 SU and 17-11 ATS (60.7%) at home in the last 5+ seasons in the second round, turning around a trend that saw them go just 9-8 SU and 5-11-1 ATS (31.3%) prior.
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-4.5 vs CLE)
#1 seeds have failed to build on second round momentum in the last five postseasons, going 12-14 SU and 8-18 ATS (30.8%) in the last 26 tries when coming off a same series win.
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (-4.5 vs CLE)
Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 19-46 SU and 27-37-1 ATS (42.2%) as such since 2015.
#4 seeds trying to fend off elimination in a second round series are just 6-12 SU and 8-10 ATS (44.4%) in the last 18 tries.
Losses compound for #4 seeds in the second round, as they are just 15-29 SU and 19-25 ATS (43.2%) coming back after a same series defeat since 2014.
Trends Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+4.5 at DET)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* CLEVELAND is just 26-28 SU and 18-36 ATS (33.3%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+4.5 at DET)
* DETROIT is 21-11 Under the total (65.6%) as a favorite of -1.5 to -5 points this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DET (o/u at 206.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 193-72 SU and 153-111-1 ATS (58%) run.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-4.5 vs CLE)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Eastern Central Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Central divisional games, home favorites in the -0.5 to -10 line range are on a 30-21 Over (58.8%) run since April 2024.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-DET (o/u at 206.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 357-269 SU but 292-319-15 ATS (47.8%) over the last seven seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 53-79-1 ATS (40.2%).
System Match (FADE ATS): DETROIT (-4.5 vs CLE)
Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 116-77 SU and 108-82-3 ATS (56.8%) in that follow-up try over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+4.5 at DET)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 102-74 SU & 104-71-1 ATS (59.4%) in their last 176 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NOT YET BUT WATCH FOR CLEVELAND at DET (+4.5 CURRENTLY)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for the game as of 4:00 p.m. ET on Saturday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, to majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, & total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-4.5 vs CLE)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and an ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT ML (-180 vs CLE)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – CLE-DET (o/u at 206.5)
NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLEVELAND +4.5 (+0.3)
UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLEVELAND +4.5 (+0.1)
TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLE-DET UNDER 206.5 (-0.3)
UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLEVELAND +4.5 (+0.1)
TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLE-DET UNDER 206.5 (-0.1)
