There is very little separation on the leaderboard for The Open Championship at Royal Birkdale Golf Club, as the course did a good job of providing challenges to the players since Mother Nature did not. Daniel Brown and Sungjae Im shared second place after 18 holes at 4-under until Jackson Suber went out and fired a 5-under among the late players to tee off. Bryson DeChambeau, Francesco Molinari, Robert MacIntyre, Thomas Detry, Ryan Gerard, and Alex Smalley all shared a piece of fourth place, just two shots off the pace.

Reigning champion Scottie Scheffler started hotter than a $2 pistol, but tailed off a little as his round progressed, though he carded a 2-under 68 and that obviously means he’ll be in the mix on Friday and likely throughout the duration of the tournament.

While a lot of players shot even par or better, some did struggle, spraying the ball around the course or struggling to putt with some pretty firm conditions. Justin Rose shot a 5-over 75 and it looks like he’ll have a short weekend stay and it looks like the same for Jordan Spieth, who appears to be disappointing those who bet on him, but making those who bet against him very happy, with a first-round 73.

The Open Championship first-round scores

The Open Championship second-round tee times

The Open Championship latest odds

VSiN’s golf experts offered their first-round observations and second-round predictions . . .

Matt Youmans

It was 11 p.m. here in Las Vegas when I started watching TV coverage of my favorite major, the British Open. (I’ve always refused to say “The Open Championship” because we have something here called the U.S. Open.) Anyway, I worked all night on college football previews for the VSiN magazine while watching golf and it was around 7 a.m. when I briefly fell asleep on the couch. I quickly woke up and watched until noon.

The British always presents unique challenges with links golf courses, and it’s more interesting when it’s raining and windy, but the conditions at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England were benign and the players took advantage. Robert MacIntyre, a lefty from Scotland, came out hot and birdied the first two holes to seize the early lead. One of my best bets is on “Bobby Mac” at 33-1 odds, and he finished 3 under and two strokes off the lead, so that was good news.

The first round of a major is always a mixed bag of good and bad news. Now, some bad news. Justin Rose is another of my bets at 38-1, despite the England star dealing a few of the worst beats I’ve ever taken in golf outrights, including a Masters play at 120-1 when he lost in a playoff last year. On Wednesday afternoon, we watched the England soccer team blow a World Cup game the way Rose has often choked on Sunday afternoons at Augusta. At 45, he’s not too old to win majors and his country needed him now more than ever. Rose was terrible, posting a 5-over 75, and sits in a tie for 136th.

Majors are not won on Thursdays, but they can be lost. Rose is already out of it, along with Joaquin Niemann (+6) and Gary Woodland (+8), but there were not many high-profile blowups. Rory McIlroy and Matt Fitzpatrick each disappointed with 2-over scores, but they are not dead yet. Fitzpatrick was probably the most popular player in the field with bettors this week, so that was a bad sign before he even teed off.

On Tuesday night, I got baited into betting Scottie Scheffler when Circa Sports raised his number to +810. Scheffler is intriguing because he’s typically a great bounce-back player and is off last week’s missed cut at the Scottish Open. He played well by carding a 2-under 68, and he actually played better than that score. He hit a ball that was buried in deep grass and ended up bogeying the par-5 17th, which was the easiest hole on the course. Scheffler is live and deserves to be the current favorite — +450 on DraftKings’ adjusted odds.

One of the biggest surprises was the success of his playing partner, Bryson DeChambeau, who missed the cut in this year’s first three majors. DeChambeau finished with a 3-under 67.

I played smaller bets on futures (approximately three units total) and bigger on Top 10 and 20 placements this week. Aside from Scheffler, MacIntyre and Rose, my other outrights bets are on Fitzpatrick (18-1), Collin Morikawa (30-1), Chris Gotterup (32-1) and Tyrrell Hatton (35-1). Scheffler is a Top 10 play (-120) along with Fitzpatrick (+200), and my Top 20s are Tommy Fleetwood (-112), Hatton (+160) and MacIntyre (+165).

Morikawa is far from my favorite player, but he’s great with short irons and in strong current form. If I didn’t bet him, I expected he would be a pain in the butt all weekend. Morikawa (-2) and Hatton (-1) are in good spots, and so is Fleetwood, who birdied the 17th to get to -1.

Jackson Suber, the first-round leader at -5, closed at 185-1 at Circa, where oddsmaker Sam Cooney said “we did take some action on Suber.”

I rarely add plays after the first round and won’t tonight. If I didn’t have any pre-tournament action, Morikawa at 15-1 is what I would bet now. Thomas Detry, who’s two strokes back, was impressive and could be worth a shot at 55-1.

Matt Brown

The Open Day 1 Recap: Royal Birkdale Proved a Test

Royal Birkdale got meaner as the sun moved, and the numbers back it up cleanly.

DataGolf had Round 1 conditions at +1.44 over the field baseline overall, but split into +1.00 for the morning wave and +1.87 for the afternoon. The wave split lands somewhere around 0.7 strokes. So if you’re looking at the leaderboard right now, mentally give the late starters a shot. They are effectively better positioned than their number says.

The Draw Is About to Flip

Here’s the part worth understanding, because The Open sends everyone off one tee more or less continuously: the guys who played late Thursday go off early Friday. The DataGolf projected Friday split is 0.9 strokes, morning again the better side. So the afternoon wave that got beat up today gets the good half tomorrow.

Everybody Had a Different Plan

The most fun part of Round 1 was watching 156 players look at the same tee box and arrive at wildly different answers. The signature moment: Rory McIlroy drove the green on 9 while his playing partners Xander Schauffele and Matt Fitzpatrick both laid up short. Same hole, same conditions, opposite philosophies.

This is genuinely unusual. Most of the time, the course almost forces players to play the same way. Not on Thursday. 

The Raw Numbers (and What They Actually Mean)

Basic course stats from Thursday, with percentile position among PGA Tour rounds since 2015. Percentile = the share of Tour rounds that came in lower than today.

• Driving distance: 279.3 yards (16th percentile). Short.
• Driving accuracy: 52% (2nd percentile). Almost nothing on Tour since 2015 has been harder to hit a fairway on.
• GIR: 63% (35th percentile).
• Missed-fairway penalty: 0.39 (67th percentile).

Accuracy was rewarded over distance. Here’s the proof, in order. The 52% tells you fairways were nearly impossible to find. The missed-fairway penalty tells you what it cost: 0.39, above Tour average, and it rose gradually throughout the day. Meanwhile length bought you almost nothing, with a yard of power converting to just 0.3 yards per tee shot. Hard to hit, expensive to miss, no upside for bombing it.

Scottie Scheffler’s answer? 92.9% of fairways hit, best in the field. Bryson DeChambeau’s answer? 28.6% of fairways, and he still gained 2.15 strokes off the tee. Both shot red numbers. Links golf remains a beautiful mess. 

Cut Line Watch

DataGolf’s cutline probabilities: +1 at 29.6%, +2 at 41.8%, +3 at 18.7%. Call it +2 and hold on.

Bryson DeChambeau (-3) is going to avoid missing the cut in all four majors this year, barring a Friday disaster. 

Harry Hall cannot say the same. He’s at +7 and needs a serious round to avoid the full sweep of weekends off. JJ Spaun, the only other live Cut Slam candidate, is at even par and in decent shape.

My Portfolio

Tickets on Scottie Scheffler (-2), Collin Morikawa (-2), and Russell Henley (E). Standing pat.

Morikawa is the one I like more after Thursday, not less. He’s normally money off the tee and he lost 1.5 strokes there in Round 1. He still shot 2-under while gaining 3.89 on approach. If the driver shows up at even average levels, he makes noise.

Negative Regression Candidates

Two guys sitting prettier than they played:

• Alex Smalley (-3): Lost 1.22 off the tee, lost strokes around the green, #1 in the field in putting at +4.03. The flat stick carried the entire round.
• Bud Cauley (-2): Lost 1.48 off the tee, also lost ARG, #2 in the field in putting at +3.44.

Positive Regression Candidates

Other than Morikawa, the guys who beat the course up and got nothing for it:

• Ben Griffin (-1): Best ball-striking round in the entire field at +4.48, then lost 2.83 strokes putting. Couldn’t putt it in the ocean and still finished under par. Best buy-low profile on the board.
• Jon Rahm (-1): +4.12 ball-striking, minus 1.65 putting.
• Chris Gotterup (E): +2.21 ball-striking, minus 2.37 putting.

All three played better golf than their number says. Any of them find a merely mediocre putting day Friday and they’re jumping the board.

Kelley Bydlon

The first round of The Open Championship is in the books, and if you haven’t been watching much golf this summer – and probably even if you have – you’re a bit surprised to see the name Jackson Suber at the top of the leaderboard (-5).

Suber had an eagle on the par five 17 to jump the leaderboard and get to -5. That’s where he finished his round at. One shot ahead of two names I’m more surprised to see: Daniel Brown and Sungjae Im. 

It was Suber’s first round of links golf ever, and he definitely likes putting on these courses so far. He gained over three shots on the field just with the flatstick. His approach and around the green games were solid though, and this is a guy who has been playing good golf recently with three finishes of T6 or better in the past six weeks. Yes, would be surprising if he was able to go on to win an Open Championship, but this isn’t a complete nobody either. 

I was eager to see how the course would play today with no rain in the area in quite a while and not much wind expected. It definitely looked and played dry as we expected. Winds kicked up a little bit in the afternoon, but scoring was only about a three quarters of a stroke more difficult, so pretty fair throughout the round. 

As usual, no added bets for me heading into the second round. I will revisit this more after tomorrow when we have multiple rounds worth of data. However, there are definitely some players jumping out to me based off putting stats. 

Bud Cauley is a great ball striker, but not exactly the best putter on the planet, so a little surprising to see him second in the field in putting, only behind Alex Smalley. Cauley could be a fade candidate in second round matchups. 

On the other end, Bryson DeChambeau, Ben Griffin Jon Rahm, and Chris Gotterup were all top eight in tee-to-green stats, but lost with the putter. It would be a little surprising to see Rahm and DeChambeau continue to putt poorly, but it would be shocking to me to see Gotterup and Griffin continue to struggle, even on foreign greens. These are two of the better and more consistent putters on the PGA tour. I think live top 10s/20s on those guys could be very good looks.