The Open Championship Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:
Tom Kim ended a 1,001-day winless drought with a victory Sunday at the Genesis Scottish Open. Kim, a pre-tournament price of around 66-1, had been showing signs of life lately, as evidenced by finishing third last month at the U.S. Open. Yours truly has even bet him a few times in 2026 and did so last week, but unfortunately only in a top-30 placement market. Sometimes in betting golf outrights, you cannot love them and leave them, and I learned that lesson this past weekend.
Min Woo Lee, a former Scottish Open champion, finished runner-up. Another former Scottish Open champion, Robert MacIntyre, finished T-3 along with Matt Fitzpatrick, Johnny Keefer and Keita Nakajima. Rounding out the top 10 were yet another former Scottish Open champion, Rory McIlroy, and Michael Thorbjornsen (T-7), along with Si Woo Kim and Victor Perez (T-9).
This week, we are on to the final major championship of the season in Southport, Merseyside, England, as the 154th Open Championship takes place at Royal Birkdale Golf Club.
One notable story from last week’s Scottie Scheffler (+750) did not play the weekend for the first time in 78 events as he missed the cut. That was Scheffler’s first missed cut in almost four years, 1,428 days to be exact (2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship). While he is defending the Claret Jug for being victorious in last year’s Open at Royal Portrush, Scheffler, still favored, does have some closer company atop the odds board with 2014 Open champion Rory McIlroy (+850).
A pair of Englishmen are both 16-1 in Matt Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood, who was born in Southport and an attendee of previous Opens in his hometown at Royal Birkdale.
Jon Rahm (22-1) has finished inside the top 7 in The Open in three of the last five years.
Xander Schauffele (28-1) won the Claret Jug two years ago at Royal Troon but has won only once since. Collin Morikawa (30-1) won the same trophy in 2021 the week after finishing T-71 at the Scottish Open.
Chris Gotterup (28-1) seems to have taken a liking to links golf as he was third in his Open debut last year at Royal Portrush, plus has gone first and T-11 in his last two years at the Genesis Scottish Open. Other Americans looking to nab their first major include Cameron Young (35-1), Russell Henley (50-1), Sam Burns (50-1) and Patrick Cantlay (66-1).
Along with Fleetwood, several other European Ryder Cuppers are seeking their first major championship triumph — which teammate Shane Lowry (66-1) got at Royal Portrush — including Ludvig Åberg (33-1), Viktor Hovland (33-1), Robert MacIntyre (35-1) and Tyrrell Hatton (35-1).
Other recent Open champions in this field include 2023 winner Brian Harman (110-1), 2022 winner Cameron Smith (130-1), 2018 winner Francesco Molinari (350-1) and Jordan Spieth (80-1), who won The Open last time it was held at Royal Birkdale in 2017.
The Field
156 players comprise this week’s field at The Open Championship. The low 70 players and ties make the weekend cut.
The Course
Founded 137 years ago as Birkdale Golf Club in 1889, the club was awarded “Royal” status in 1951. Birkdale Golf Club moved to a new site in Birkdale Hills in 1894.
Royal Birkdale first held The Open Championship in 1954 and has hosted The Open 10 times. Some of the game’s legends have won the Claret Jug and became the “Champion Golfer of the Year” here.
| Year | Player | Winning Score |
| 1954 | Peter Thomson | 283 (-9) |
| 1961 | Arnold Palmer | 284 (-4) |
| 1965 | Peter Thomson | 285 (-7) |
| 1971 | Lee Trevino | 278 (-14) |
| 1976 | Johnny Miller | 279 (-9) |
| 1983 | Tom Watson | 275 (-9) |
| 1991 | Ian Baker-Finch | 272 (-8) |
| 1998 | Mark O’Meara | 280 (E) |
| 2008 | Padraig Harrington | 283 (+3) |
| 2017 | Jordan Spieth | 268 (-12) |
The duo of Fred Hawtree and five-time Open champion J.W. Taylor were commissioned to redesign the course to Open Championship standards.
Tom Mackenzie and Martin Ebert did a 2024 renovation here and have done redesigns or renovations at eight of the 10 Open Championship venues — Royal Lytham and St Annes, Royal St. George’s, Royal Troon, Royal Liverpool, Royal Birkdale, Carnoustie, Turnberry and Royal Portrush.
Royal Birkdale will play as a par-70 measuring 7,223 yards, 67 yards longer than the 7,156-yard setup used in 2017.
The fairways, with an average width on the narrow side at 32 yards, are primarily Fescue with some Bentgrass, while the rough (four to six inches) is comprised of Native and Fescue grasses. They will be firmer, but the landing areas are more level than a typical links course, and many of the lies will be flat with fewer blind shots into the greens. Royal Birkdale is a straightforward setup, relatively speaking.
The Fescue and Bentgrass greens average approximately 5,500 square feet, which are a bit smaller than the typical PGA Tour putting surfaces, plus have smaller targets because of slopes, narrow entrances, surrounding bunkers and tightly mown runoffs. The greens will be slightly faster than typical Open greens at around 10.5 to 11 on the stimpmeter.
Royal Birkdale’s primary defenses are the wind (which is difficult to judge because of the towering dunes), of course, as the course lies close to the Irish Sea, but also the 110 bunkers on the layout, with many of them being in the fairways. If a player finds one of the fairway bunkers, there is little chance to reach the greens on approach shots.
As you can see from the above scorecard, there have been changes at Royal Birkdale. Other than rebuilt tees, renovated bunkers, and improved drainage, there were significant changes on the fifth, seventh, 14th and 15th holes. The short par-4 fifth was completely redesigned into a more drivable hole featuring a raised green surrounded by some deep bunkers. The 14th is now a par-5 while a new long par-3 was introduced as the 15th. Players do not see a par-5 until No. 14 and both par-5s are late on the back nine.
Three-time Open champion (1987, 1990, 1992) Sir Nick Faldo takes us through the changes at Royal Birkdale in this video provided by the R&A.
Comparable courses include almost all of the Open rota courses, especially the Mackenzie/Ebert renovations listed above. Royal Birkdale also shares similarities with last week’s Scottish Open course, Renaissance, plus stateside courses like Pebble Beach, Waialae and Kiawah Island.
Golf Digest provides us with a hole-by-hole flyover video of Royal Birkdale.
Weather
One of the main storylines at The Open Championship always involves the weather forecast. Temperatures are projected to be in the mid-70s throughout the week with little to no rain in the forecast.
The heaviest wind gusts look to be in the afternoon on both weekend days and without much of a draw bias in each of the first two rounds.
Open Championship Recent History
2025: Scottie Scheffler (-17/267); Royal Portrush; 9-2
2024: Xander Schauffele (-9/275); Royal Troon; 14-1
2023: Brian Harman (-13/271), Royal Liverpool; 150-1
2022: Cameron Smith (-20/268), St. Andrews; 20-1
2021: Collin Morikawa (-15/265), Royal St. George’s; 40-1
2020: Canceled due to COVID-19 pandemic
2019: Shane Lowry (-15/269), Royal Portrush; 70-1
2018: Francesco Molinari (-8/276), Carnoustie; 33-1
2017: Jordan Spieth (-12/268), Royal Birkdale; 16-1
2016: Henrik Stenson (-20/264), Royal Troon; 33-1
2015: Zach Johnson (-15/273), St. Andrews; 110-1*
2014: Rory McIlroy (-17/271), Royal Liverpool; 18-1
2013: Phil Mickelson (-3/281), Muirfield; 20-1
2012: Ernie Els (-7/273), Royal Lytham & St. Annes; 45-1
2011: Darren Clarke (-5/275), Royal St. George’s; 200-1
2010: Louis Oosthuizen (-16/272), St. Andrews; 250-1
Playoff win over Marc Leishman and Louis Oosthuizen – *
Open Championship Trends and Angles
- 12 of the last 15 winners had at least one top-5 finish in at least one of their six events before The Open.
- 8 of the last 14 winners had at least one victory in at least one of their six events before The Open.
- 18 of the last 25 winners, including 10 of the last 12, had at least one worldwide victory earlier in the season.
- 13 of the last 15 winners were inside the OWGR Top 40.
- 8 of the last 15 winners were age 32 or older.
- 13 of the last 15 winners, including the last five, played the week prior.
- 16 of the last 19 winners had a previous top-10 or better in a previous Open.
- 11 of the last 13 winners have posted a top-20 in at least one of their previous two majors leading into The Open.
- 13 of the last 13 winners already had a win or a runner-up in a major earlier in their career.
- 15 of the last 16 winners had at least four career worldwide wins.
- 14 of the last 16 winners had played The Open at least four times.
- 16 of the last 16 winners had at least one top-5 finish earlier in the season.
- 14 of the last 16 winners had at least four top-10 finishes earlier in the season.
Statistical Analysis
Approach has been the decider in past Opens here at Royal Birkdale, and this year should be no exception.
There will be a wide array of approach shots from short wedges at around 100 yards to 200-yard or longer iron shots.
Controlling distance and spin plus trajectory are the keys to separate the elite ball strikers.
Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2026 season)
- Francesco Molinari 0.925
- Alex Fitzpatrick 0.913
- Patrick Reed 0.875
- Collin Morikawa 0.864
- Matt Fitzpatrick 0.847
- Antoine Rozner 0.807
- Shane Lowry 0.776
- Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra 0.776
- Jon Rahm 0.734
- J.J. Spaun 0.697
- Si Woo Kim 0.673
- Tom Kim 0.662
- Daniel Hillier 0.660
- Brooks Koepka 0.640
- Scottie Scheffler 0.623
- Ludvig Åberg 0.618
- Adam Scott 0.608
- Viktor Hovland 0.607
- Bernd Wiesberger 0.596
- Joaquin Niemann 0.589
- Justin Rose 0.580
- Dan Bradbury 0.575
- Kurt Kitayama 0.549
- Daniel Berger 0.521
- Kazuma Kabori 0.517
- Hennie du Plessis 0.507
Royal Birkdale places a premium on driving accuracy, and players must be careful of finding the fairway bunkers.
Driving Accuracy (2026 season)
- Alistair Docherty 76.5%
- Kazuma Kabori 72.8
- Russell Henley 72.7
- Aaron Rai 71.3
- Si Woo Kim 70.2
- Collin Morikawa 70.1
- Matthew Baldwin 69.6
- Matt Fitzpatrick 69.3
- Francesco Molinari 68.1
- Corey Conners 67.0
- Tommy Fleetwood 66.6
- Mason Howell 65.9
- Alex Fitzpatrick 65.3
- Joaquin Niemann 65.1
- Tom McKibbin 65.0
- Alex Noren 64.8
- Viktor Hovland 64.8
- Jordan Smith 64.3
- J.J. Spaun 64.3
- Scottie Scheffler 63.9
- Ryan Gerard 63.8
- Tom Kim 63.5
- Daniel Berger 63.4
- Rickie Fowler 62.8
- Jon Rahm 62.8
- Brian Harman 62.7
- Sami Valimaki 62.7
- Matt McCarty 62.7
- Ryo Hisatsune 62.7
- Harris English 62.6
- Casey Jarvis 62.6
Only 22 players finished the 2017 Open in red figures and although weather conditions do not appear to be overly difficult, there are plenty of bogeys that lurk here if players are not accurate off the tee or hit their approaches to the wrong locations on the greens.
Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2026 season)
- Thomas Detry 9.0%
- Scott Vincent 9.4
- Scottie Scheffler 9.4
- Sam Bairstow 9.7
- Bryson DeChambeau 9.9
- Peter Uihlein 10.1
- Jon Rahm 10.2
- Alex Fitzpatrick 10.6
- Russell Henley 10.6
- Andy Sullivan 11.1
- Lucas Herbert 11.1
- Tommy Fleetwood 11.9
- Matt Fitzpatrick 11.9
- Cameron Young 11.9
- Rory McIlroy 12.0
- Tom Kim 12.0
- David Puig 12.0
- Patrick Cantlay 12.2
- Si Woo Kim 12.3
- Patrick Reed 12.5
- Rickie Fowler 12.6
- Alistair Docherty 12.7
- Keita Nakajima 12.8
- Caleb Surratt 12.8
- Collin Morikawa 12.9
- Alex Smalley 13.0
The green complexes are protected by revetted pot bunkers, tightly mown runoffs and short fescue that will test players’ short games.
Players can and must be creative around the greens.
Scrambling (2026 season)
- David Puig 79.2%
- Sam Bairstow 78.1
- Russell Henley 71.6
- Alex Fitzpatrick 71.4
- Hennie du Plessis 70.9
- Scottie Scheffler 70.5
- Tommy Fleetwood 69.7
- Andy Sullivan 68.9
- Antoine Rozner 68.8
- Hideki Matsuyama 68.1
- Cameron Young 68.0
- Tom Kim 67.4
- Rickie Fowler 67.1
- Viktor Hovland 66.8
- Shane Lowry 66.7
- Sami Valimaki 66.4
- Casey Jarvis 66.4
- Wyndham Clark 66.2
- Jackson Suber 66.2
- Xander Schauffele 66.0
- Akshay Bhatia 65.8
- Patrick Reed 65.8
- Min Woo Lee 65.5
- Jason Day 65.4
- Harris English 65.3
- Bud Cauley 65.3
- Kurt Kitayama 65.2
- Robert MacIntyre 65.0
Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2026 season)
- Cameron Smith 0.640
- MJ Daffue 0.569
- Patrick Reed 0.546
- Matt Fitzpatrick 0.531
- Justin Thomas 0.525
- Jason Day 0.494
- Scottie Scheffler 0.481
- Padraig Harrington 0.470
- Matthew Jordan 0.455
- Ben Griffin 0.432
- Michael Hollick 0.424
- Wyndham Clark 0.410
- Eric Cole 0.394
- Maverick McNealy 0.384
- Tommy Fleetwood 0.384
- Jon Rahm 0.372
- Sungjae Im 0.357
- Patrick Cantlay 0.341
- Hideki Matsuyama 0.321
- Sahith Theegala 0.305
- Harry Hall 0.295
- Matthew Southgate 0.293
- Tyrrell Hatton 0.290
- Keegan Bradley 0.290
- Nick Taylor 0.271
- Bud Cauley 0.270
- Martin Couvra 0.262
- Jack Buchanan 0.261
- Peter Uihlein 0.250
The greens are typically slow on links courses and Royal Birkdale’s are no exception with a 10.5 to 11 on stimpmeter. The greens are slow because of the typically windy conditions.
Strokes Gained: Putting — Average Per Round (2026 season)
- Scott Vincent 1.164
- Shaun Norris 0.964
- Stewart Cink 0.757
- Cameron Smith 0.730
- Sam Burns 0.722
- Akshay Bhatia 0.694
- Peter Uihlein 0.672
- David Puig 0.603
- Peter Bridgeman 0.603
- Jake Knapp 0.583
- Kota Kaneko 0.579
- Harris English 0.565
- James Nicholas 0.554
- Robert MacIntyre 0.544
- Eric Cole 0.541
- Alex Noren 0.531
- Scottie Scheffler 0.463
- Ben Griffin 0.462
- Maverick McNealy 0.458
- Keita Nakajima 0.423
- MJ Daffue 0.402
- Max Homa 0.374
- Wyndham Clark 0.373
- Ryan Gerard 0.372
- Harry Hall 0.359
- Chris Gotterup 0.355
- Michael Kim 0.347
- Rory McIlroy 0.331
- Russell Henley 0.328
- Andy Sullivan 0.317
- Jon Rahm 0.303
Strokes Gained: Putting — Slow Greens — Average Per Round (2026 season)
- Alistair Docherty 1.527
- Joakim Lagergren 0.834
- James Nicholas 0.831
- David Puig 0.666
- Sam Burns 0.631
- Kota Kaneko 0.604
- Harry Hall 0.562
- Jake Knapp 0.511
- Josele Ballester 0.506
- Jacob Bridgeman 0.488
- Jason Day 0.479
- Cameron Smith 0.464
- Eric Cole 0.445
- Matthew Jordan 0.432
- Andy Sullivan 0.427
- Patrick Reed 0.411
- Daniel Brown 0.408
- Mason Howell 0.403
- Xander Schauffele 0.392
- Lucas Herbert 0.388
- Matt McCarty 0.372
- Harris English 0.357
- Maverick McNealy 0.347
- Jon Rahm 0.344
- Tyrrell Hatton 0.330
- Thomas Detry 0.329
- Ben Griffin 0.325
- Alex Noren 0.317
- Matt Fitzpatrick 0.305
- Tommy Fleetwood 0.301
Initial forecasts project consistent, but not overwhelming winds, but it can always change quickly this time of year.
Strokes Gained: Total — Windy Conditions — Average Per Round (2026 season)
- Collin Morikawa 3.20
- Scottie Scheffler 3.09
- Casey Jarvis 2.85
- Wyndham Clark 2.50
- Xander Schauffele 2.43
- Matt Fitzpatrick 2.28
- Tommy Fleetwood 2.05
- Justin Thomas 2.01
- Jacob Bridgeman 1.95
- Rory McIlroy 1.86
- Joaquin Niemann 1.86
- Akshay Bhatia 1.83
- Ryo Hisatsune 1.80
- Ryan Gerard 1.69
- Robert MacIntyre 1.67
- Si Woo Kim 1.65
- Sam Burns 1.62
- Aaron Rai 1.61
- Patrick Reed 1.60
- Min Woo Lee 1.58
- Ludvig Åberg 1.55
- Corey Conners 1.54
- Sahith Theegala 1.53
- Ryan Fox 1.52
- Bud Cauley 1.51
- Jason Day 1.50
Selections
Matt Fitzpatrick (18-1, DraftKings)
Despite having three victories this year and being certainly in the running for PGA Tour Player of the Year, Fitzpatrick has been just a little off at the majors, going T-18, T-14 and 22nd in the first three this season.
Fitzpatrick ranks No. 1 on the PGA Tour for both Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Around The Green and is exceptional at scrambling from the shorter grasses.
His putter started cold on the West Coast but has gotten better throughout the season, gaining strokes in nine of his last 13 starts. He gained over 4.5 strokes with the flatstick last week on the slower greens at Renaissance and will find similar greens here at Royal Birkdale.
Tommy Fleetwood (19-1, DraftKings)
Unfortunately, we are paying a bit of the hometown tax here on Fleetwood as his odds should probably be in the mid- to high-20s, but this feels like it could be the spot for Fleetwood to finally win his first major.
Fleetwood has finished no worse than 14th anywhere in his last five starts, so he appears to be peaking at the right time.
He ranks first in Scrambling, third for Strokes Gained: Around The Green and sixth in Driving Accuracy on the PGA Tour.
There would certainly be no more popular winner than Fleetwood hoisting the Claret Jug in his hometown.
Collin Morikawa (33-1, DraftKings)
This has certainly been a busy year for Morikawa. He began by winning for the first time in 28 months at Pebble Beach (former Open winners at Royal Birkdale who also won at Pebble Beach include Jordan Spieth and Mark O’Meara).
Then, he had a back injury in the early spring, which perhaps stalled his season’s momentum a bit and forced him to withdraw from The Players. Next, he and wife Katherine welcomed their first child.
Now all of that is behind him, and he can focus completely on golf.
In his previous start, Morikawa finished third and just one shot out of the playoff with a closing round of 61.
He fits the prototype for success here, ranking second on the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained: Approach, fifth for both Driving Accuracy and Distance From the Edge of the Fairway.
Robert MacIntyre (36-1, DraftKings)
MacIntyre has three top-8s on six starts in The Open, including a T-7 last year at Royal Portrush, and finished second in the 2019 British Masters held at nearby Hillside Golf Club in Southport.
He finished T-3 last week at his home Scottish Open but led the field with his irons by gaining almost 10 strokes on the field for approach, and appears to be over his neck injury from the spring.
“Bobby Mac” also ranks ninth on the PGA Tour this season for Strokes Gained: Putting.
The Scotsman is looking to be the first from his country to win The Open since Paul Lawrie in 1999.
Tyrrell Hatton (38-1, DraftKings)
Hatton finished just T-17 at the Scottish Open but led the field for Strokes Gained: Putting.
He finished T-3 at the Masters and T-7 at the U.S. Open earlier this season, so he is becoming more of a regular factor in major championships.
The Englishman, a Liverpool fan, should feel very comfortable on Merseyside and has a recent victory under his belt, having won at Valderrama on LIV to begin June.
Like Morikawa, he became a recent first-time father as well, so that has perhaps calmed his demeanor a bit to get him across the finish line for his first major championship.
Justin Rose (41-1, DraftKings)
Despite being the only player to lose two sudden-death playoffs at the Masters and still be in search of his first green jacket, The Open Championship is one that Rose wants to win the most. He has come close twice, finishing T-2 at Carnoustie in 2018 and T-2 at Troon two years ago.
It was here at Royal Birkdale in 1998 where Rose made his Open Championship debut as a 17-year-old to finish T-4 and win the Low Amateur honors.
Rose has finished T-3 (Masters), T-10 (PGA) and T-11 (U.S. Open) this year at the first three majors.
Approaching age 46, time is running short for Rose to nab that second major (2013 U.S. Open), but it feels like he still has one more in him with three top-3 finishes in his last eight major championships, and The Open has been the major for elder statesmen to win in recent years (Darren Clarke, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson all won in their 40s).
Russell Henley (54-1, DraftKings)
Henley disappointed at the PGA Championship and U.S. Open after finishing T-3 at The Masters. However, he has become a regular contender in majors lately with five top-10s in his last nine.
He got back in the winner’s circle seven weeks ago, winning the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial, another course where accuracy off the tee is important. Henley leads the PGA Tour for Driving Accuracy.
His best major over the last two years has been at The Open with a fifth at Troon in 2024 and a 10th last year at Royal Portrush.
Maverick McNealy (115-1, Circa Sports)
McNealy has posted career-best finishes in all three majors this season, so why not a fourth here?
Mav always has an elite short game, and this year is no exception, ranking eighth in Sand Saves, 14th for Strokes Gained: Around The Green and 19th for Strokes Gained: Putting on the PGA Tour this season.
Placement markets, props, matchups and/or other bets will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks.
