Barracuda Championship Golf Picks

Barracuda Championship Golf Picks:

Last week, Englishman Harry Hall emerged from a five-man playoff to win the ISCO Championship on the third hole in overtime – and with a chip-in birdie across the green on the Par 3 9th hole to earn his first PGA TOUR victory. Hall, 45/1 pre-tournament, won the third playoff hole over Pierceson Coody and Matt NeSmith. Rico Hoey and Zac Blair also reached the playoff. This week, the PGA TOUR and DP World Tour co-sanction an opposite event of the Open Championship at the Barracuda Championship.

Keith Mitchell (16/1) leads the odds board here and is looking for his first victory since the 2019 Honda Classic.

Michael Thorbjornsen (25/1) turned pro just four weeks ago and already has a runner-up at the John Deere Classic two weeks ago. 

Also priced at 25/1 are Taylor Pendrith, who won his first PGA TOUR event in May at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and Patrick Rodgers, who finished runner-up and lost in a playoff to Akshay Bhatia here last year. 

Chan Kim (30/1) finished Top 10 last week at the ISCO. Nick Dunlap (30/1) won The American Express earlier this season as an amateur before turning professional less than a month later. Sam Stevens (30/1) has a Top 10 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and a runner-up on the Korn Ferry Tour over the last five weeks.

A long list of players is priced at 35/1 including Beau Hossler, who finished 6th here last year, Mark Hubbard, who was 10th here last year and 4th in 2022, Kevin Yu, Mac Meissner, and Hoey. 

The Event

Since 2012, this event has used the Modified Stableford scoring system, which was used prior at the International event in Colorado. 

Points	Strokes in relation to Par
Albatross	+8 points (3-under par)
Eagle	+5 points (2-under par)
Birdie	+2 points (1-under par)
Par	+-0 points (Par)
Bogey	-1 point (1-over par)
Double Bogey or worse	-3 points (2-over par or more)

The Field

156 players are here playing for valuable FedEx Cup points, an invitation to next year’s PGA Championship, and a two-year PGA TOUR exemption. 

Current DraftKings odds are listed here: Golf Betting Odds & Lines: Barracuda Championship | DraftKings Sportsbook

The Course

Tahoe Mountain Club’s Old Greenwood Course in Truckee, CA, will host the Barracuda Championship for the third time after many years at the Montreux Golf & Country Club. The track is a Par 71 of 7,480 yards; however, it is played at near 6,000 ft of altitude, so it will play closer to 6,800 yards or so. The course was designed by Jack Nicklaus in 2004. 

Old Greenwood is a resort track that combines mountain forests and desert. Water is in play on 6 holes, and 95 bunkers are throughout the layout. The fairways and greens (5,300 sq ft average) are Bentgrass/Poa Annua, and the rough is Bluegrass cut to about 2.5″. The greens will roll at around 11 on the stimpmeter. 

Further course details and facts are available from the GCSAA (Golf Course Superintendents Association of America): 7.18-barracuda-(pga-tour).pdf (gcsaa.org)

With a Modified Stableford scoring system in place, there’s obviously a premium on making eagles and birdies and the players are rewarded for doing so more than they are penalized for scores of bogey or worse. 

Here is the official scorecard for the Barracuda Championship courtesy of PGA TOUR Media:

Barracuda Championship Recent History

2023: Akshay Bhatia 40; 35/1*
2022: Chez Reavie 43; 40/1
2021: Erik Van Rooyen 50; 66/1
2020: Richy Werenski 39; 33/1
2019: Collin Morikawa 47; 10/1
2018: Andrew Putnam 47; 28/1
2017: Chris Stroud 44; 75/1**
2016: Greg Chalmers 43; 300/1
2015: J.J. Henry 47; 66/1***
2014: Geoff Ogilvy 49; 66/1
2013: Gary Woodland 44; 40/1
2012: J.J. Henry 43; 40/1

Playoff win over Patrick Rodgers – *
Playoff win over Greg Owen & Richy Werenski – **
Playoff win over Kyle Reifers – ***

Note: The 2012-2019 tournaments were played at Montreux Golf Club. The Barracuda officially moved to Old Greenwood in 2020. 

Statistical Analysis

This event rewards birdies and eagles and does not really punish for bogeys or worse.

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Keith Mitchell 25.14%
2. Michael Kim 24.81
3. Chan Kim 24.72
4. Hayden Springer 24.70
5. Nick Dunlap 24.44
6. Patton Kizzire 24.39
7. Sam Ryder 23.94
8. Jacob Bridgeman 23.78
9. Rico Hoey 23.64
10. Trace Crowe 23.61
11. Carson Young 23.61
12. Ryan McCormick 23.51
13. S.H. Kim 23.46
14. Alejandro Tosti 23.33
15. Troy Merritt 23.10
16. Max Greyserman 23.00

These greens are fairly easy to hit, so it is probably more prudent to look at overall Proximity to the Hole and look for players that hunt for the flags.

Proximity to the Hole (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Joel Dahmen 33′ 10″
2. Patton Kizzire 34′ 4″
3. Troy Merritt 34′ 9″
4. Keith Mitchell 34′ 11″
5. Carson Young 35′ 4″
6. Ryan Moore 35′ 5″
7. Mac Meissner 35′ 7″
8. Chan Kim 35′ 8″
9. Sam Ryder 35′ 10″
10. Ben Silverman 35′ 11″
11. J.J. Spaun 36′ 0″
12. Tom Whitney 36′ 1″
13. Kevin Yu 36′ 2″
14. Greyson Sigg 36′ 3″
15. Chez Reavie 36′ 4″
16. Justin Suh 36′ 4″

There is not a lot of trouble off the tees here and the altitude puts distance on a level playing field, so Total Driving (Distance Rank + Accuracy Rank) is probably the best gauge for off-the-tee play.

Total Driving (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Rico Hoey 106
2. Patrick Fishburn 119
3. Keith Mitchell 120
4. Daniel Berger 129
5. Hayden Springer 133
6. Carl Yuan 135
7. Kevin Dougherty 138
8. K.H. Lee 138
9. Carson Young 138
10. Max Greyserman 141
11. Chan Kim 141
12. Kevin Yu 141
13. Hayden Buckley 146
14. Cameron Champ 149
15. Tom Whitney 150
16. Taylor Pendrith 151

An event like this one can often come down to a putting contest. 

Strokes Gained: Putting – Bentgrass/Poa Greens – Average Per Round (Last 24 Rounds)

1. Adrien Saddier 1.23 (8 Rounds)
2. Kevin Kisner 0.82
3. S.H. Kim 0.79
4. Ben Taylor 0.76
5. Andy Sullivan 0.75
6. Jacques Kruyswijk 0.73 (4 Rounds)
7. Dylan Wu 0.72
8. Francesco Laporta 0.67 (4 Rounds)
9. Hayden Springer 0.66 (22 Rounds)
10. Ricardo Gouveia 0.65 (8 Rounds)
11. Sam Bairstow 0.56 (4 Rounds)
12. Justin Suh 0.54
13. Alexander Knappe 0.52 (4 Rounds)
14. Aaron Baddeley 0.50
15. Ryan McCormick 0.40 (18 Rounds)

Selections

Rico Hoey 35/1
Hoey came up short for us last week at the ISCO Championship. However, he finished Top 20 here on debut last year and has finishes of 2nd and 6th in two of his last three events. 

Hayden Springer 45/1
Springer posted back-to-back Top 10 finishes at the Rocket Mortgage (10th) and John Deere (7th) Classics. He shot a round of 59 just two weeks ago at the John Deere. 

Sam Bairstow 55/1
Englishman Bairstow finished 6th last week at the ISCO and was 2nd in the field for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. He has two Top 10 finishes, and five Top 15 finishes this season as a DP World Tour rookie. 

Johannes Veerman 55/1
Veerman was in contention after 54 holes last week at the ISCO but could not get much going Sunday and settled for T-10. That gave him his fifth Top 10 finish combined on the PGA and DP World Tours. 

Patrick Fishburn 66/1
Fishburn has five Top 25 finishes this season.  He played his college golf at BYU and is from Utah, so he should be well acclimated to playing at altitude. ‘

Andy Sullivan 150/1
Sullivan, an Englishman, would certainly rather being playing in the Open Championship, but he is back here again in 2024 (47th last year). He finished a respectable 16th last week in Kentucky, ranking 2nd in the field for Driving Accuracy.