Genesis Invitational Best Bets and Golf Odds

Genesis Invitational Best Bets and Golf Odds:

Since graduating from the Challenge Tour in 2016, Thomas Detry had failed to win on a major tour and had finished runner-up a combined eight times from 2017-to 2024 on the DP World and PGA Tours. That came to an end in resounding fashion on Sunday as the Belgian won the Waste Management Phoenix Open by seven strokes (-24) for his first major tour victory. Detry began the week priced as high as 100-1 and now has risen to No. 22 in the OWGR with the convincing win. 

Detry (55-1 this week) will be part of a 72-player field for this week’s “Signature Event” at the Genesis Invitational. This year, the Genesis will not be played at its customary venue Riviera Country Club because of the damage from the California wildfires. The tournament has been moved to San Diego at Torrey Pines Golf Course, which hosted the Farmers Insurance Open three weeks ago won by Harris English (60-1 this week). 

Scottie Scheffler (4-1) heads up the field in his customary favorite position. He was on the periphery of contention heading into the weekend but settled for a T-25 finish last weekend in Phoenix. 

Rory McIlroy (7-1) won two weeks ago at Pebble Beach and has good finishes at Torrey Pines — third in 2020, fifth in 2019 and seventh in 2021 (U.S. Open). 

Collin Morikawa (14-1) has a couple of solid finishes of his own at Torrey Pines — third in 2023 and fourth in the 2021 U.S. Open. 

Justin Thomas (18-1) does not exactly have a great run of form on this course but is inching closer and closer to getting into the winner’s circle with a runner-up at the AMEX and a T-6 last week in Phoenix. 

Hideki Matsuyama (25-1) opened the 2025 season with a win at the Sentry and has a couple of top-10s at Torrey Pines. He is also the defending Genesis champion, having won last year at Riviera. 

Ludvig Åberg (25-1) was the first-round leader at the Farmers here three weeks ago with a 63 on the easier North Course but was struck with an illness and tumbled down the leaderboard over the weekend. He also withdrew the following week at Pebble Beach. 

The second tier of the odds board starts with Sungjae Im (28-1), Patrick Cantlay (35-1), Tommy Fleetwood (35-1), Jason Day (40-1), Tom Kim (40-1), Rasmus Højgaard (40-1), Taylor Pendrith (40-1) and Jordan Spieth (40-1), whose T-4 last week in Phoenix is his best finish in over a year. 

The Event

This tournament was established in 1926 as the Los Angeles Open and was first played at the Los Angeles Country Club and has been played at a variety of courses in the greater Los Angeles area. Riviera Country Club, located in Pacific Palisades, has hosted the event 59 of 95 times and has been its permanent home essentially since 1984 (Valencia CC hosted in 1998). The event has been the site for several historic milestones in the game of golf. In 1938, the legendary Babe Zaharias became the first woman to play in a professional men’s golf event. In 1992, the Nissan L.A. Open was the site of Tiger Woods’ first PGA Tour event, which he played as a 16-year-old high school sophomore amateur.

Woods, who withdrew from the field on Monday, serves as the tournament host as his Tiger Woods Foundation is the event organizer. This event has had many legendary winners, including Ben Hogan, Sam Snead, Tom Watson, Johnny Miller, Hale Irwin, Byron Nelson, Ben Crenshaw, Nick Faldo, Phil Mickelson, Fred Couples, Ernie Els and numerous other major champions.

South Korea-based Hyundai Motor Group, through its Genesis Motors subsidiary, took over the tournament’s sponsorship in 2017.

The Genesis is one of four “Signature” events that will maintain a 36-hole cut, which includes the top-50 and ties and also every player within 10 strokes of the 36-hole lead.

The Field

46 of the top 50 in the OWGR are in this week’s field. 

The Course

Torrey Pines Golf Course in La Jolla is a 36-hole public course owned by the City of San Diego. Unlike the Farmers Insurance Open three weeks ago, only the South Course will be played for the Genesis Invitational. The South Course, which was renovated in 2019 by Rees Jones before the 2021 U.S. Open, is now the longest annual course on the PGA Tour at 7,765 yards. It plays as a par-72, The fairways (fifth narrowest on tour at 28-yard average) and rough on the South Course are Kikuyugrass but with a Ryegrass overseed. The South Course greens (fifth smallest on tour at 5,000 square feet) are faster (12.5 stimpmeter) Poa Annua.

Torrey Pines South played as the ninth most difficult course last season with an average round score of 72.40 (+0.40 par). It could be even more difficult this year as the rough is a half-inch longer (four inches) to start the tournament than in past years. Southern California, including San Diego, has been very dry over the last several months, so the rough may play a bit easier with little to no moisture. There are 82 bunkers on the course and only one water danger hole on the layout.

The South Course record is 62 set by Tiger Woods (third round, 1999). 

Correlated courses to the South Course include Glen Abbey, Muirfield Village, Riviera, Augusta National, Quail Hollow, Chapultepec, Olympia Fields and Bethpage Black.

Golf Digest provides a hole-by-hole flyover video of Torrey Pines South. 

Genesis Invitational Recent History

2024: Hideki Matsuyama (-17/267); 80-1

2023: Jon Rahm (-17/267); 8-1

2022: Joaquin Niemann (-19/265); 50-1

2021: Max Homa (-12/272); 60-1*

2020: Adam Scott (-11/273); 33-1

2019: J.B. Holmes (-14/270); 150-1

2018: Bubba Watson (-12/272); 50-1

2017: Dustin Johnson (-17/267); 9-1

2016: Bubba Watson (-15/269); 25-1

2015: James Hahn (-6/278); 200-1**

2014: Bubba Watson (-15/269); 33-1

2013: John Merrick (-11/273); 250-1***

2012: Bill Haas (-7/277); 50-1****

2011: Aaron Baddeley (-12/272); 100-1

2010: Steve Stricker (-16/268); 16-1

Playoff win over Tony Finau – *

Playoff win over Paul Casey & Dustin Johnson – *

Playoff win over Charlie Beljan – **

Playoff win over Keegan Bradley & Phil Mickelson – ***

All of the above events were played at Riviera Country Club and the Genesis Invitational became a “Signature Event” just last year.

We can also include the Farmers Insurance Open history as well, but keep in mind that players play one round at the substantially easier Torrey Pines North Course during that tournament. 

2025: Harris English (-8/280); 100-1

2024: Matthieu Pavon (-13/275); 150-1

2023: Max Homa (-13/275); 22-1

2022: Luke List (-15/273); 90-1*

2021: Patrick Reed (-14/274); 25-1

2020: Marc Leishman (-15/273); 55-1

2019: Justin Rose (-21/267); 14-1

2018: Jason Day (-10/278); 22-1**

2017: Jon Rahm (-13/275); 55-1

2016: Brandt Snedeker (-6/282); 18-1

2015: Jason Day (-9/279); 14-1***

2014: Scott Stallings (-9/279); 250-1

2013: Tiger Woods (-14/274); 15-2

2012: Brandt Snedeker (-16/272); 22-1****

2011: Bubba Watson (-16/272); 66-1

2010: Ben Crane (-13/275); 80-1

Playoff win over Will Zalatoris – *

Playoff win over Alex Noren and Ryan Palmer – **

Playoff win over Harris English, JB Holmes and Scott Stallings – ***

Playoff win over Kyle Stanley – ****

Course history is ordinarily something to examine weekly, and this week is no exception, but it is probably less important than usual with the change in venue for this event and it being a “Signature Event.” A perfect example is Rory McIlroy two weeks ago. He did not have all that much history at Pebble Beach but won the tournament. 

Weather

Unlike three weeks ago at Torrey Pines, weather will be a factor as rain and wind are expected. 

In terms of statistics to examine, they largely remain the same. The course may not necessarily play harder from a scoring standpoint because the rain will soften the fairways and greens. It will not play as firm and fast. The length of the course already makes it a bear. Add to that some rain and wind and it makes for a long trek around this place. 

Here are some early weather forecasts courtesy of AccuWeather:

Thursday Morning

Thursday Afternoon

Friday conditions are anticipated to be a tad warmer with more intermittent precipitation. 

Saturday and Sunday look clear from a rain and wind standpoint. 

​Statistical Analysis 

Torrey Pines South Course is the longest course on the PGA Tour, so distance matters, but the fairways are also some of the narrowest on the tour and Driving Accuracy is only around 52%. Total Driving consists of Driving Distance Rank + Driving Accuracy Rank. Harris English, who won for us three weeks ago here at 100-1, was the PGA Tour leader in Total Driving heading into that Farmers Insurance Open. 

Total Driving (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Daniel Berger 39 (22 Driving Distance Rank + 17 Driving Accuracy Rank)
2. Taylor Pendrith 64 (39 + 25)
3. Gary Woodland 66 (2 + 64)
4. Rasmus Højgaard 77 (6 + 71)
5. Ben Griffin 90 (57 + 33)
6. Tom Kim 102 (14 + 88)
7. Davis Thompson 113 (77 + 36)
8. Wyndham Clark 122 (24 + 98)
9. Shane Lowry 127 (107 + 20)
10. Robert MacIntyre 132 (112 + 20)
11. Michael Kim 134 (52 + 82)
12. J.J. Spaun 134 (49 + 85)
13. Rickie Fowler 135 (87 + 48)

Total Driving (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 87 (64 + 23)
2. Ludvig Åberg 96 (22 + 74)
3. Rory McIlroy 104 (2 + 102)
4. Tommy Fleetwood 108 (97 + 11)
5. Austin Eckroat 109 (93 + 16)
6. Jordan Spieth 115 (43 + 72)
7. Harris English 120 (83 + 37)
8. Stephan Jaeger 122 (21 + 101)
9. Daniel Berger 123 (118 + 5)
10. Keegan Bradey 124 (54 + 70)
11. Sam Burns 126 (39 + 87)
12. Shane Lowry 126 (97 + 29)
13. Davis Thompson 129 (47 + 82)

Ball Striking takes into account Total Driving + Greens In Regulation Rank, and these greens only average 5,000 square feet, fifth smallest on tour. 

Ball Striking (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Taylor Pendrith 7 (5 Total Driving Rank + 2 GIR Rank)
2. Rasmus Højgaard 15 (7 + 8)
3. Gary Woodland 23 (6 + 17)
4. Robert MacIntyre 32 (26 + 6)
5. Davis Thompson 37 (14 + 23)
6. Sepp Straka 43 (40 + 3)
7. Collin Morikawa 55 (54 + 1)
8. Tom Kim 57 (12 + 45)
9. Kevin Yu 65 (43 + 22)
10. J.J. Spaun 72 (28 + 44)
11. Matt Fitzpatrick 74 (63 + 11)
12. J.T. Poston 79 (47 + 32)
13. Michael Kim 80 (28 + 52)

Ball Striking (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 5 (2 + 3)
2. Daniel Berger 26 (14 + 12)
3. Kevin Yu 50 (40 + 10)
4. Corey Conners 54 (28 + 26)
5. Aaron Rai 56 (47 + 9)
6. Ludvig Åberg 77 (4 + 73)
7. Davis Thompson 80 (21 + 59)
8. Max Greyserman 91 (31 + 60)
9. J.J. Spaun 91 (75 + 16)
10. Sam Stevens 97 (66 + 31)
11. Tommy Fleetwood 101 (7 + 94)
12. Keegan Bradley 110 (15 + 95)
13. Shane Lowry 115 (17 + 98)

Harris English led the field three weeks ago for Scrambling, getting up and down 22 out of 26 times at 84.6%. 

Scrambling (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Hideki Matsuyama 75.21%
2. Sam Stevens 73.64
3. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 72.84
4. Jordan Spieth 71.05
5. Min Woo Lee 70.73
6. Collin Morikawa 69.23
7. Daniel Berger 69.12
8. Tom Hoge 68.69
9. Harris English 68.13
10. Byeong Hun An 67.57
11. Sungjae Im 67.54
12. Denny McCarthy 67.11
13. Sepp Straka 67.09

Scrambling (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Hideki Matsuyama 68.17
2. Scottie Scheffler 66.18
3. Denny McCarthy 66.15
4. Tommy Fleetwood 66.03
5. Collin Morikawa 65.45
6. Maverick McNealy 65.16
7. Russell Henley 65.00
8. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 64.93
9. Robert MacIntyre 64.85
10. Mackenzie Hughes 64.73
11. Rory McIlroy 64.08
12. Seamus Power 63.96
13. Ludvig Åberg 63.95

Even the most accurate drivers are going to miss plenty of these narrow fairways. Moreover, the greens at Torrey Pines South are some of the smallest on tour, so players will have to be even more precise with the irons whether from the fairway or the rough.

The top three finishers three weeks ago at the Farmers — Harris English, Sam Stevens and Andrew Novak — rated fourth, third and seventh, respectively, in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach. 

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Collin Morikawa 1.249
2. Scottie Scheffler 1.159
3. Sepp Straka 1.151
4. J.J. Spaun 0.992
5. Nick Taylor 0.966
6. Hideki Matsuyama 0.910
7. Tom Hoge 0.833
8. Russell Henley 0.792
9. Justin Thomas 0.782
10. Jason Day 0.774
11. Shane Lowry 0.751
12. Jordan Spieth 0.695
13. Adam Scott 0.686

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 1.269
2. Tony Finau 0.808
3. Corey Conners 0.776
4. Tom Hoge 0.754
5. Lucas Glover 0.710
6. Aaron Rai 0.676
7. Justin Thomas 0.639
8. Shane Lowry 0.531
9. Si Woo Kim 0.506
10. Hideki Matsuyama 0.499
11. J.J. Spaun 0.469
12. Viktor Hovland 0.458
13. Ludvig Åberg 0.434

The plurality of the approach shots will come from 200 yards and out. 

Average Proximity to the Hole — 200+ Yards (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Min Woo Lee 38′ 0″ (feet, inches)
2. Seamus Power 42′ 0″
3. Gary Woodland 42′ 11″
4. Corey Conners 43′ 7″
5. Jordan Spieth 43′ 11″
6. Collin Morikawa 44′ 5″
7. Jake Knapp 45′ 10″
8. Sepp Straka 45′ 10″
9. Adam Scott 45′ 11″
10. Tom Hoge 46′ 5″
11. Byeong Hun An 46′ 9″
12. Cam Davis 46′ 9″
13. Wyndham Clark 46′ 10″

Average Proximity to the Hole — 200+ Yards (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Robert MacIntyre 44′ 10″
2. Michael Kim 45′ 3″
3. Tom Hoge 45′ 11″
4. J.J. Spaun 45′ 11″
5. Andrew Novak 46′ 2″
6. Viktor Hovland 46′ 5″
7. Jake Knapp 46′ 8″
8. Byeong Hun An 47′ 2″
9. Max Greyserman 47′ 3″
10. Akshay Bhatia 47′ 10″
11. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 48′ 0″
12. Tony Finau 48′ 0″
13. Sungjae Im 48′ 0″

Torrey Pines South has pure Poa greens. They are fast (12.5 stimpmeter) but also bumpy and unpredictable. 

Strokes Gained: Putting — Poa Greens (Last 50 rounds)

1. Denny McCarthy 38.8
2. Max Homa 30.4
3. Maverick McNealy 29.5
4. Wyndham Clark 27.4
5. Adam Scott 25.5
6. Michael Kim 22.7
7. Sahith Theegala 19.6 (43 rounds)
8. Mark Hubbard 19.6
9. Mackenzie Hughes 19.4
10. Daniel Berger 18.9
11. Akshay Bhatia 17.7 (16 rounds)
12. Sungjae Im 17.6
13. Justin Rose 16.9

Torrey Pines South is a challenging course, and it is easy to drop shots in a hurry here. 

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Collin Morikawa 6.94%
2. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 8.89
3. Jordan Spieth 9.03
4. Sepp Straka 9.44
5. Jason Day 9.72
6. Denny McCarthy 9.72
7. Sam Burns 10.07
8. Justin Thomas 10.07
9. Will Zalatoris 10.19
10. Brian Harman 10.23
11. Hideki Matsuyama 10.28
12. Min Woo Lee 10.42
13. Scottie Scheffler 10.42

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 9.85
2. Aaron Rai 12.23
3. Andrew Novak 12.47
4. Tommy Fleetwood 12.60 
5. Ben Griffin 12.64
6. Maverick McNealy 13.04
7. Collin Morikawa 13.08
8. Russell Henley 13.17
9. Hideki Matsuyama 13.29
10. Ludvig Åberg 13.41
11. Kevin Yu 13.42
12. Seamus Power 13.48
13. Sam Stevens 13.62

NOTE: Percentage of time player makes bogey.

In recent years, scoring has been around low teens under par, so players are going to need to score on par-5s especially. 

Strokes Gained Par-5s (Last 50 rounds)

1. Patrick Cantlay 25.9
2. Scottie Scheffler 22.5
3. Billy Horschel 22
4. Taylor Pendrith 21.1
5. Max Greyserman 20.7
6. Si Woo Kim 19.3
7. Jason Day 17.9
8. Davis Thompson 16.4
9. Tony Finau 16.2
10. Ludvig Åberg 16
11. Aaron Rai 15.6
12. Ben Griffin 15.6
13. Adam Scott 15.4

Selections

Collin Morikawa (18-1, Circa Sports)

Morikawa was a W/D from the Farmers three weeks ago when it became apparent that Torrey Pines was going to host this year’s Genesis Invitational.

He leads the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained: Approach and Bogey Avoidance for the young 2025 season and ranks near the top for Ball Striking and Scrambling.

While he gives up a little distance off the tee, Morikawa is one of the PGA Tour’s best with long irons and even bombers off the tee will have long irons on their approaches. 

Taylor Pendrith (40-1, DraftKings)

Pendrith has consecutive top-10 finishes, including a T-9 at Torrey Pines three weeks ago where he was second for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green, fifth for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, fifth for Driving Distance and sixth for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee.  

Combining his performances at Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach, Pendrith ranked second in Greens In Regulation, third in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and fifth in Total Driving.

Tony Finau (50-1, Circa Sports)

Despite a rare missed cut three weeks ago at Torrey Pines, Finau has been a “horse for the course” as he has finished ninth or better in six of the last nine years, including sixth or better five times. 

Finau, who played the South Course on Wednesday and the North Course during Thursday’s high winds, was on the wrong end of a bad draw bias. 

He was 20-1 three weeks ago here and is over double the price this week. With the weather conditions looking iffy to start the event, Finau’s carry distance off the tee should play to his advantage.

Viktor Hovland (55-1, Bet365)

Hovland was runner-up at Torrey Pines in 2021.

He is not exactly in stellar form, so he is a bit of a flier here, but he is typically strong off the tee in elevated events on more difficult courses.

Around the green has long been a weakness in Hovland’s game, but he is a substantially better chipper out of thick grasses that will surround the greens this week as opposed to short grass. 

Cameron Young (70-1, FanDuel)

Young opened with a first-round 74 last week in Phoenix but finished with rounds of 64-66-67 to finish T-12. 

Last week, he ranked second for Driving Distance and fourth for Strokes Gained: Putting. 

His big game off the tee should fit well in the tough conditions this week.

Wyndham Clark (80-1, BetMGM)

Clark was the first-round leader last week in Phoenix before settling for a T-16 finish. 

He has two PGA Tour wins in California, the 2023 U.S. Open and 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (also on Poa greens). 

Clark’s length off the tee plus his proficiency with long irons can put him into contention here. 

Placement markets and/or matchups will be up Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks