WNBA Picks
Injuries and suspensions are the main story of tonight’s three-game slate; the Phoenix Mercury travel to Toronto to take on the Tempo without the services of Alyssa Thomas, who is infamously serving a one-game suspension for the “throat punch heard ‘round the world” on Caitlin Clark. Indiana will host the LA Sparks, but the Fever will be without Caitlin Clark, who suffered a back injury in that game against Phoenix, and LA is missing Cameron Brink and Kelsey Plum for at least a month. Seattle hosts Atlanta in a back-to-back for the Dream after losing at Golden State last night. Here are the TSI projections for Saturday’s games.
Toronto Tempo (-5.5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 177.5
Toronto is coming off a game in which it scored 125 points (league record in regulation) and Marina Mabrey scored 53, tying the WNBA single-game record with A’ja Wilson and Liz Cambage. Phoenix is without Thomas, as I mentioned, due to the suspension. Phoenix has been five points better than Toronto over the last five games, and very oddly has been seven points better on the road than they have been at home, while Toronto is two points better at home than on the road. TSI projects Phoenix -1.5 with a total of 180 with a full lineup, and I think Thomas is probably worth 3.5 to 4 points to the spread. Both these teams’ games have been exceeding expected point totals over the last five games, so until I see signs of slowing down, if TSI calls for an Over on a Tempo game, I think it’s worth considering.
Bet: Over 177.5 (Play to 178.5)
Indiana Fever (-6.5) vs LA Sparks, O/U 179.5
Another game impacted by the absence of key players here in Indiana, as Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Plum, and Cameron Brink are all sidelined for this one. In the first game for LA without both its stars, they posted a game grade 25 points below their season average and allowed a league record 125 points to Toronto. Indiana has been about the same over the last five as they have all season, but obviously losing Clark is a major blow to the offense. TSI projects Fever -7.5 with a total of 188 based on team aggregate data, and I think the injuries are probably a bit of a wash in this case. Neither team is going to be interested in playing a lick of defense, so I’d expect the likes of Kelsey Mitchell and Nneka Ogwumike to get what they want. I’m still playing the over despite the loss of offensive stars because both defenses are that bad, and there are still capable scorers on both sides.
Bet: Over 179.5 (Play to 180.5)
Seattle Storm (+8.5) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 166.5
This is a tough spot for Atlanta, who’s playing a back-to-back and its third road game in four days. Teams on back-to-backs are just 1-3 ATS this year. Seattle is coming off a big win against the Liberty, their first win since May 24th. TSI projects Atlanta -8.5 with a total of 172, although I don’t really want to play an Over on a team in Atlanta’s situational spot with the schedule, and I don’t trust Seattle enough. Seattle is playing about four points better over its last 5 than it has all season, and is exponentially better at home, so I’d lean the Storm’s way, but they’re a very tough team to bet on because the offense can just disappear at any moment.
Lean: Storm +8.5
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
