UFC Azerbaijan Predictions:
Baku, Azerbaijan, hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night event, a fight card with 12 bouts, 10 of which feature local and regional athletes competing against fighters arriving from across the globe. There is one fight featuring two area combatants, as well as a fight between athletes from Colombia and Australia.
They also employ a large cage in Azerbaijan. The crowd will enjoy 12 hand-selected bouts, all of which feature male fighters and most of which slightly favor the area participant.
Bouts kick off at 6 a.m. PT for the prelims, then the main card at 9 a.m. PT.
Last week, we correctly predicted Manel Kape to overcome his opponent after a couple of close rounds, which is exactly what transpired. We turn our attention now to Baku.
Rafael Fiziev -120 vs. Manuel Torres +100
Lightweight (155 pounds) main event
Torres is a Mexican finisher. Since his debut on DWCS, he has compiled a 6-1 record in the UFC, with all six of those wins being first-round finishes. Torres has been consistent, as his defeat to Ignacio Bahamondes was also via first-round submission.
Torres has NEVER fought past the first round in his professional career, save for one early fight in 2018.
Torres has a Muay Thai background; he applies constant forward pressure to lure opponents into the firefight, and he has a granite beard.
Torres’ last four foes have prepared him in style and level of competition to be more than competitive in this step-up fight against a savant Muay Thai striker in Rafael Fiziev.
In native Azerbaijani Fiziev, the striking coach at Tiger Muay Thai in Phuket, Thailand, we have a dominant local warrior versed in world-class Muay Thai and supplemented with a blue belt in BJJ.
Fiziev is 1-4 in his last five, but his defeats were against elite top-five competition in the division, the likes of which Torres has yet to compete against. That sole victory was against Bahamondes, the man who defeated Torres in one round.
Torres will sport height, age and reach advantages over the local Fiziev. However, who Fiziev has competed against must factor into this handicap as well as the damage and attrition those bouts have inflicted upon him.
Yes, Fiziev has competed against a higher level of adversary by far, but what and how much have those defeats taken from the 33-year-old? Meanwhile, Torres travels across the world to take on a most dangerous power striker/kicker in his own backyard, and with all the locals jeering for Fiziev and against Torres.
This fight figures to be a real barnburner…do not miss this main event.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Over -140
Abus Magomedov -150 vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk +130
Middleweight (185 pounds)
We’ll refer to each of these men in this column by their first names.
Abus is the local fighter who has realized a 4-3 record in the UFC. Abus can strike and he has a solid wrestling base, as do most Russian athletes. Abus has displayed an extremely balanced set of mixed-martial-arts weaponry. He has an impressive 14 KOs, followed by eight submission wins and six wins via decision.
Abus has competed against three fighters currently ranked in the top seven of the division, and despite losing all three of those scraps, he arrives at this fight looking to bounce back after a submission loss in October of last year.
In Polish power puncher Mike O, we have an extremely aggressive knockout artist who once competed against the light heavyweights before dropping down to middleweight, where he has realized a 6-4 record.
Michal has not faced the lethal set of adversaries that Abus has, but he has fought several of the same athletes and has realized success. Mike O will do all he can to keep this battle on the feet. He will own advantages in athleticism, toughness, and most especially striking aptitude. He sports a +1.35 significant strike per minute advantage over Abus, who holds a negative significant strike differential.
Where Abus may be giving away striking aptitude and athleticism, he will have an advantage in his grappling/wrestling, and it is here that Abus will look to build the foundation of this fight by taking Mike O to the floor for a roll immediately.
Where this fight takes place will be a great barometer to who is in control here. Mike O is close to inept on the canvas, while he will hold great advantage in the striking and leg kick department should this fight remain standing.
This will be a great clash of styles, but one where I believe the underdog is more than live!
UFC Azerbaijan Best Bet: Michal Oleksiejczuk +130 circa.
I also released this on the GambLou ‘Sneak-Teep’ podcast Oleksiejczuk +135, so the number is dropping. Buy now!
Total in this fight: 1.5 rds. Over -135
Strong lean Over.
Friday morning, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms or at GambLou.com. Access all my final releases there. Thank you for reading. Enjoy the fights!
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