Here we are: the final day of the Group Stage, with Groups J, K and L all decided on Saturday, Day 17 of the World Cup. We move on to the Knockout Stage on Sunday, starting with Switzerland vs South Africa. It’ll be a relief for anyone who isn’t a fan of draws — from here, games go to extra time and penalties if needed to determine a winner and loser. Here are the two bets that stand out from the final six group games.
Colombia vs Portugal | 2026 FIFA World Cup Group K | Saturday, June 27 | 7:30PM EST | Hard Rock Stadium | Miami Gardens
Colombia (+320) | Draw (+280) | Portugal (-120)
Over 2.5 Goals (+100) | Under 2.5 Goals (-125)
Colombia +0.5 (+100) | Portugal -0.5 (-125)
Saturday evening sees Group K come to a close with the two strongest teams battling for top spot. Colombia sit top on six points and need only avoid defeat to claim the group, which puts them in a bracket with Switzerland. Portugal sit in second on four points and need to win here to avoid landing in a bracket likely to contain Spain.
With all to play for, I think we’re in for a treat. Colombia don’t strike me as a team willing to sit deep and defend in the hope of securing a draw and top spot. They’ll play to their strengths, which is a fast-paced, open game where Luis Díaz’s pace and trickery can punish Portugal in transition. 2014 Golden Boot winner James Rodríguez operates freely behind Luis Suárez, finding space and dictating play. Daniel Muñoz — who has scored in both games — marauds from right-back, and his well-timed runs into the box make him a constant attacking threat.
Nestor Lorenzo has done a great job molding Los Cafeteros into an explosive, exciting counter-attacking side and his tactics have resulted in two wins, four goals, 35 shots and six big chances, totaling 2.59 xG. Against this Portugal side, we can expect more of the same.
If you caught my Portugal vs DR Congo Preview or Bill Adee’s VSiN Daily, you’ll remember me calling Ronaldo a “head on a stick.” Long story short, Father Time has caught up with the 41-year-old and I predicted he’d be found out against Colombia and stronger sides in the Knockout Stage.
CR7 revealed the true level of his decline in the opening game in what was a shockingly poor performance against DR Congo. The only thing more shocking was Roberto Martinez leaving him on the pitch for the full 90 minutes. Both will chew your ear off all night about the decision being justified due to his brace in the 5-0 win over Uzbekistan, a result that hasn’t magically solved all of their problems.
Coming into this tournament I knew a Portugal side with Ronaldo up top and Martinez’s blind faith in him would struggle against sides of Colombia’s quality — and that day is upon us. Their center-back pairing of Davinson Sánchez and Jhon Lucumi have enough about them to tame Ronaldo, just like the DR Congo Leopards did.
Back Colombia to avoid defeat and grab top spot.
Pick: Colombia +0.5 (+100)
DR Congo vs Uzbekistan | 2026 FIFA World Cup Group K | Saturday, June 27 | 7:30PM EST | Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Atlanta
DR Congo (-135) | Draw (+320) | Uzbekistan (+340)
Over 2.5 Goals (-115) | Under 2.5 Goals (-110)
DR Congo -0.5 (-145) | Uzbekistan +0.5 (+115)
The other match in Group K sees the two weakest sides face off with both technically able to progress but realistically only one has a shot. Uzbekistan on zero points and a minus seven goal difference would need to record an emphatic win to be within a shout. Three points for DR Congo would see them make history and advance to the Knockout Stage for the first time.
Reflecting on my Portugal vs DR Congo Preview I was a little dismissive of the Premier League quality and experience The Leopards’ back line possesses. Captain Chancel Mbemba, Axel Tuanzebe, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Arthur Masuaku have impressed in a back five alongside Steve Kapuadi, their best display coming against Portugal. However, they were fortunate to only concede one against a Colombia side who stretched and pulled them apart at times but failed to capitalize on their chances.
In attack they have struggled to create high-quality chances in open play — their goal coming from a well-worked corner which was rated at 0.39 xG. Setting that aside, they’ve registered 14 attempts totaling 0.85 xG which averages out to 0.06 xG per attempt. Looking at their shot maps it’s not hard to see why with only four attempts coming inside the 18-yard-box.
I think DR Congo will have more joy against this Uzbekistan defense who couldn’t contain Portugal or Colombia, giving up eight goals, 32 shots and 11 big chances for a combined 4.22 xG. This is despite manager and legendary defender Fabio Cannavaro’s safety-first approach that sets up in a 5-4-1 low block when out of possession and prioritizes defensive solidity. In attack they have one goal which is rated at 0.98 xG. Remove that and they’ve mustered 14 shots and zero big chances totaling 0.42 xG which averages out to 0.03 xG per attempt.
It’s a grim read in attack for both sides, but I think that favors this DR Congo side more than it does Uzbekistan who have shown almost no cutting edge in open play. DR Congo’s backline has already proven it can handle quality opposition, and a Uzbekistan attack this toothless should hold few fears and cause fewer problems.
The obvious play here is DR Congo Moneyline (-135). Considering both sides’ attacking numbers, I’m going to combine it with Under 3.5 Goals (-310) to boost it to +136.
Back DR Congo to secure the three points and their ticket to the Knockout Stage in a low-scoring affair.
Pick: Same Game Parlay DR Congo Moneyline (-135) and Under 3.5 Goals (-310) = +136
