MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, June 27.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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1:10 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole has a 3.62 ERA with 8.1 strikeouts and 2.5 walks per nine innings in six starts since coming off the injured list. Red Sox starting pitcher Jake Bennett has a 3.71 ERA and a 2.65 fielding independent in his first five MLB starts, but he is pitching to a lot of contact with only 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Yankees lineup that is averaging nearly 4.7 runs per game since Aaron Judge went on the injured list, while the Red Sox rank last in the league in scoring at home with 3.4 runs per game.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline -120 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -149 and Total 8.1
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers
Astros starting pitcher Kai-Wei Teng has a 4.03 ERA but an even higher 4.63 fielding independent with 1.3 home runs and four walks per nine innings. Tigers starting pitcher Framber Valdez is posting a 3.91 ERA with a career-low 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings, but he is allowing only 0.9 home runs per nine innings. He also has the motivation of pitching against the organization where he began his career and with which he had minimal negotiations during the offseason. In his first career start against the Astros earlier this month, he threw six innings and allowed just one unearned run.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -119
Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -137
4:05 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns has been magnificent this season, posting a 2.00 ERA with 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 1.1 home runs per nine innings. Pirates starting pitcher Jared Jones has struggled since coming off the injured list, posting a 5.75 ERA and a 4.78 fielding independent in five starts while allowing 1.8 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings. The Pirates also rank 19th in bullpen ERA at 4.32.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -109
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -136
4:10 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha has a 3.48 ERA this season, but the heavy amount of contact he allows may be catching up to him. He is getting only 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings and has allowed at least three runs in four of his past five starts. White Sox starting pitcher Davis Martin has a 3.18 ERA and a 2.93 fielding independent with 0.6 home runs allowed and 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Royals lineup that ranks last in the league in road scoring at 3.7 runs per game.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline -140
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox -166
7:10 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Mariners give Logan Gilbert the start on the mound. He has been solid overall with a 3.29 ERA, 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings, and 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. He has been especially dominant on the road, posting a 1.04 ERA with just 0.3 home runs allowed per nine innings. Gilbert is expected to be piggybacked by Emerson Hancock, who owns a 3.60 ERA with 8.6 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings. Guardians starting pitcher Slade Cecconi has a 4.49 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings this season, but he has been in excellent form, allowing three earned runs or fewer in nine straight starts.
Pick: Mariners vs. Guardians Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.3
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins
Rockies starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen has struggled in a big way this season, posting a 7.11 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings allowed. He faces a Twins lineup that ranks eighth in scoring with 4.8 runs per game. Twins starting pitcher Mike Paredes has a 4.05 ERA while allowing 0.9 home runs per nine innings in his small sample of five career MLB appearances. Both teams have struggled in the bullpen, as the Twins rank last in the league with a 5.30 bullpen ERA, while the Rockies rank 28th at 5.02.
Pick: Twins Moneyline -138 and Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Twins -176 and Total 9.4
9:05 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants
Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder has struggled recently, allowing at least three runs in four of his past five starts, but he still owns a 3.71 ERA this season with one home run and 2.8 walks allowed per nine innings. He is backed by the league’s best bullpen, which owns a 2.85 ERA. The Giants rank 20th in bullpen ERA at 4.39, while their offense is 27th in home scoring at fewer than 3.8 runs per game. Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb enters with a 3.35 ERA and a 3.07 fielding independent with just 0.5 home runs and 2.2 walks allowed per nine innings, but he draws a difficult matchup against a Braves offense that ranks second in road scoring at 5.4 runs per game.
Pick: Braves Moneyline +112 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -103 and Total 8.1
9:38 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels
Athletics starting pitcher Jack Perkins has pitched better than his 6.76 ERA would indicate, as he owns a 3.76 fielding independent with 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.2 home runs allowed per nine innings. He faces an Angels lineup that ranks 23rd in home scoring at just over four runs per game and is now without Mike Trout because of injury. Angels starting pitcher Reid Detmers owns a 3.93 ERA but a much lower 2.88 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs, 2.7 walks, and 10 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Athletics vs. Angels Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.8
