Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, June 10, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: SF is 25-11 (+15.58 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-110 vs WSH)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 384-429 but for +90.44 units and an ROI of 9.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+129 at TB), CINCINNATI (+141 at SD)
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 379-190 (66.6%) for +53.16 units and an ROI of 9.3%!
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-180 vs MIN)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams have gone positive again at 117-89 start for -0.18 units and an ROI of -0.08 after last week brought in +6.74 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-180 vs MIN), NY METS (-136 vs STL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 36-62 for -31.67 units and an ROI of -32.3%!
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-110 at ATH)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 75-89 for +9.73 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+141 at SD), MINNESOTA (+148 at DET), COLORADO (+144 vs CHC)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 29-12 for +0.8 units.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-207 at PIT)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to an 84-100 start for -9.20 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 37-46 for -7.16 units and an ROI of -8.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – TAMPA BAY (-155 vs BOS), WASHINGTON (-109 at SF)
3+ games – ST LOUIS (+113 at NYM), KANSAS CITY (+100 vs TEX)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 67-78 for -1.95 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-119 vs NYY), BALTIMORE (-110 vs SEA), PITTSBURGH (+169 vs LAD), MINNESOTA (+148 at DET)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 440-465 but for +27.16 units and an ROI of 3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+129 at TB), CLEVELAND (-119 vs NYY)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 384-429 but for +90.44 units and an ROI of 9.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+129 at TB), CINCINNATI (+141 at SD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 455-436 (51.1%) for +19.36 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+169 vs LAD), NY METS (-136 vs STL)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2093-1981 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -267.18 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-105 vs AZ), LA DODGERS (-207 at PIT), DETROIT (-180 vs MIN), LA ANGELS (-120 vs HOU)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,120-2,692 (44.1%) for -267.99 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-136 at TOR), HOUSTON (-101 at LAA)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 641-530 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.93 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-119 vs NYY)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 379-190 (66.6%) for +53.16 units and an ROI of 9.3%!
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-180 vs MIN)*WATCH FOR ATHLETICS vs MIL (-110 CURRENTLY)*
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 60-35-5 (63.2%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 30-8 Over streak in the last 38).
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-DET (o/u at 9)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 98-143 SU (-23.14 units, ROI: -9.6%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+141 at SD), MIAMI (-105 vs AZ)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 192-226 SU record for +40.41 units and an ROI of 9.7% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+169 vs LAD)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 222-255 SU but for +46.69 units (ROI: 9.8%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+144 vs CHC)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 301-313 run (+10.54 units, ROI: 1.7%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): BALTIMORE (-110 vs SEA)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 189-156 (+10.86 units, ROI: 3.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+113 at NYM)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 248-168 in their last 416 tries (+31.70 units, ROI: 7.6%).
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+113 at NYM)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ATLANTA -149 (+40 diff), SAN DIEGO -171 (+20), CHICAGO CUBS -175 (+19)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: CHC-COL OVER 12 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: STL-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), TEX-KC UNDER 10 (-0.5), HOU-LAA UNDER 9 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) WASHINGTON (35-33) at (902) SAN FRANCISCO (27-41)
Trend: WSH is the most profitable team in MLB on the road this season (23-13 record, +19.29 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-109 at SF)
Trend: Under the total is 19-9 (+9.18 units) when SF is favored with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-SF (o/u at 8)
Trend: SF is 25-11 (+15.58 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-110 vs WSH)
(903) CINCINNATI (32-34) at (904) SAN DIEGO (34-32)
Trend: Brady Singer’s teams are 12-2 (+11.31 units) in his last 14 starts vs NL West opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+141 at SD)
(905) ARIZONA (34-32) at (906) MIAMI (32-35)
Trend: Over the total is 19-6-3 (+12.40 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): AZ-MIA (o/u at 8.5)
(911) CHICAGO-NL (34-33) at (912) COLORADO (25-42)
Trend: CHC is 34-15 (+12.77 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-175 at COL)
Trend: CHC is 17-34 (-14.23 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 at COL)
(913) NEW YORK-AL (40-26) at (914) CLEVELAND (37-32)
Trend: Under the total is 15-7-2 when starter Carlos Rodon has faced CLE in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-CLE (o/u at 7.5)
(915) BOSTON (27-38) at (916) TAMPA BAY (39-25)
Trend: TB is 14-4 (+10.28 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-155 vs BOS)
(919) MINNESOTA (30-38) at (920) DETROIT (28-39)
Trend: Over the total is 23-13-4 (+8.70 units) when MIN is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-DET (o/u at 9)
(921) TEXAS (32-34) at (922) KANSAS CITY (28-39)
Trend: Under the total is 20-7-1 (+12.30 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-KC (o/u at 10)
Trend: KC is 3-14 (-13.44 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+100 vs TEX)
(925) PHILADELPHIA (36-31) at (926) TORONTO (33-35)
Trend: Jesus Luzardo’s teams are 4-10 (-8.45 units) when he starts vs AL East competition since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-136 at TOR)
Trend: Max Scherzer’s teams have a 24-7 record when he starts vs Philadelphia in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+113 vs PHI)
(927) ATLANTA (45-22) at (928) CHICAGO-AL (35-31)
Trend: CWS is 21-11 (+11.38 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+124 vs ATL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): HOUSTON (-101 at LAA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy ROAD FAVORITES of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-207 at PIT)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-136 at TOR), ATLANTA (-149 at CWS), MILWAUKEE (-110 at ATH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-119 vs NYY), SAN FRANCISCO (-110 vs WSH), DETROIT (-180 vs MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-ATH (o/u at 14.5)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Tuesday, June 16)
