Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3:45 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants (-110, 8.5)
The Nationals (35-33) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 4-3 as +130 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 6-3 as a -110 road pick’em.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Nationals hand the ball to lefty Foster Griffin (7-2, 3.63 ERA) and the Giants (27-41) go with fellow southpaw Robbie Ray (4-6, 4.12 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -120 home favorite and Washington a +100 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down on Nationals to complete the sweep, dropping the line away from San Francisco (-120 to -110) and toward Washington (+100 to -110). In other words, smart Nationals money has moved this game down to a pick’em.
At Circa, Washington is receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” one-way split in favor of the Nationals from the Vegas sharps.
The Nationals have the more productive offense, posting a .322 OBP with 362 runs scored compared to San Francisco posting a .307 OBP with only 278 runs scored.
Washington is hitting .268 against lefties this season, ranking 2nd in MLB.
The Nationals are 10-3 in Griffin’s 13 starts this season. He is 5-1 with a 3.40 ERA on the road and 6-0 with a 3.24 ERA during the day.
Washington is 23-13 on the road, the 3rd best road record in MLB.
Meanwhile, San Francisco is 12-18 at home, the 4th worst home record in MLB.
7:07 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-130, 8.5) at Toronto Blue Jays
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Phillies (36-31) won the opener 5-2, taking care of business as -185 road favorites. Then the Blue Jays (33-35) bounced back with a 3-2 win yesterday, cashing as a -110 home pick’em.
In tonight’s series finale, the Phillies tap lefty Jesus Luzardo (4-4, 4.56 ERA) and the Blue Jays send out righty Max Scherzer (1-3, 9.64 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -145 road favorite and Toronto a +125 home dog.
The public thinks this line is too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the chalk with the Phillies.
However, despite receiving 73% of moneyline bets at DraftKings, we’ve seen Philadelphia fall from -145 to -130. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Toronto, as the line has moved toward the Blue Jays (+125 to +115) despite being the unpopular play.
At Circa, Toronto is taking in 31% of moneyline bets and 62% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split from the wiseguys in the desert.
Home dogs off a win, like the Blue Jays here, are 76-80 (49%) this season but have produced a 4% ROI due to the plus money payouts. Dogs off a win with line movement in their favor facing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 39-36 (52%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Toronto offers correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (8.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
9:38 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels (-115, 9)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Astros (31-38) took the opener 5-4 in extra innings, coming through as -135 road favorites. Then the Angels (26-42) bounced back with a 10-1 win yesterday, cashing as +105 home dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Astros hand the ball to righty Peter Lambert (5-4, 3.55 ERA) and the Angels turn to lefty Reid Detmers (2-5, 4.26 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -125 home favorite and Houston a +105 road dog.
The public is split down the middle and can’t decide who to support.
However, despite this roughly 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen the line fall away from Los Angeles (-125 to -115) and toward Houston (+105 to -105).
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price one way or the other. So, based on the 50/50 line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have come down in favor of Houston.
At DraftKings, the Astros are taking in 47% of moneyline bets but 66% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Houston is receiving 82% of moneyline bets and a whopping 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the road team, especially the pros in Vegas.
Houston offers betting system and correlative betting value as a divisional dog in a high total game (9), with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
Lambert has posted a 2.93 ERA on the road compared to 3.82 at home. Houston is 3-0 in his last three starts.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 4-9 on Detmers’ 13 starts this season. He is 0-3 with a 5.11 ERA at home compared to 2-2 with a 3.41 ERA on the road.
Houston is hitting .250 against lefties, 9th best in MLB.
On the other hand, Los Angeles is hitting .234 against righties, ranking 24th.
