PGA Championship Best Bets

If home-course advantage is worth something in a golf major, Justin Thomas should be in a good spot this week. With the PGA Championship staged in Thomas’ hometown of Louisville, Kentucky, he will need all the help he can get to take down Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and several other players in better recent form.

Thomas is a two-time PGA champion, with titles in 2017 and 2022 representing his only major wins. In fact, the PGA in May 2022 was the last time he won a tournament. He’s far from the favorite at Valhalla Golf Club. which is near where he grew up, but Thomas’ local knowledge could help him close the gap on Scheffler (+400) and McIlroy (+750), the favorites on the DraftKings odds board. McIlroy’s last major win was the PGA at Valhalla in 2014. Scheffler has won four of his past five starts, including the Masters in April.

 

In golf and horse racing, I typically try to beat the favorite, and that’s the case this week. Scheffler and McIlroy are each dealing with well-documented distractions, plus their single-digit odds are unappealing. Thomas has not played poorly, but he’s not hot, either. After missing the cut at the Masters, he finished tied for fifth and T-21 in his past two starts. The strongest case for Thomas, a former Kentucky high school state champion, is he should be a horse for the course.

When the odds drift on a big-name player who’s struggling to win but has that type of potential, a long shot is sometimes worth a shot. I’m betting Thomas to finish Top 20 (+175 at DraftKings) for one unit and to win (54-1 at Circa Sports) for a half-unit.

Other players on my PGA betting card (with DraftKings and Circa odds):

Brooks Koepka
Never lacking confidence, “Big Game Brooks” typically steps it up for the majors. In 21 major starts at the PGA and U.S. Open, Koepka has 11 top-five finishes, including five wins. The defending PGA champ is coming off of a LIV win in Singapore. I bet Koepka in the Masters last month and he was a mess, finishing 9-over par and tied for 45th, so he will be motivated to bounce back.
PGA Championship Best Bet: Top 10 (+230) for one unit and to win (16-1) for a half-unit.

Jon Rahm
It was disappointing when “Rahmbo” took the Saudi money and ran to the LIV tour, where he has been the favorite in each tournament this year but has not recorded a win. He’s a fierce competitor with top-five finishes in the four majors, with a Masters win in 2023 and a U.S. Open win in 2021. A dry spell has caused his odds to inflate, and he’s flying under the radar for a change.
PGA Championship Best Bet: Top 10 (+200) for one unit and to win (17-1) for a half-unit.

Bryson DeChambeau
Valhalla is a long layout at 7,609 yards, and it will be playing even longer this week with rain in the forecast. DeChambeau ranks first in strokes gained off the tee in the last 36 rounds (Rahm ranks second, followed by Scheffler and McIlroy). DeChambeau also ranks first in driving distance. He’s also good around the greens and with his putter, similar to Koepka and Rahm. Long hitters will have a significant edge on this course, and DeChambeau could be the top Louisville slugger.
PGA Championship Best Bet: Top 10 (+300) for one unit and to win (28-1) for a half-unit.

Tournament matchups:
Jon Rahm (+135) over Xander Schauffele
Bryson DeChambeau (-133) over Max Homa
Tyrrell Hatton (-104) over Patrick Cantlay
Cameron Young (-120) over Jordan Spieth
Sahith Theegala (-115) over Sam Burns

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