Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Patrick Moquin handicaps the Thursday, July 2 racing card at Colonial Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 7.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Screen Test (7th race)
Seventh Race
1. Screen Test
2. Connect the Stars
3. Mia Familia
SCREEN TEST could be a sneaky contender making her belated 3-year-old debut for Motion, who has picked an ambitious spot to bring her back off the break; after soundly defeating future stakes winner Coach Mazzula in her second career start in September, the filly shipped to Keeneland and ran well back in a brutal allowance field; she has not run since, but the upside is there for one who has had plenty of time to mature. CONNECT THE STARS will get some class relief for Casse after three stakes tries and a Churchill Downs allowance last month; the filly has been tested time and again since her maiden victory in January; she is very close to being a stakes winner despite running well beyond her scope these past few months, having come up just short in a $150,000 stakes at Gulfstream in March; this is decidedly easier stuff. MIA FAMILIA is another one who has been tested in Florida stakes, having come up just short in a $75,000 event on synthetic last month; she displayed similar form on turf before that and simply seemed to run up against some tougher competition; obvious candidate.
Here are Patrick’s thoughts on the other seven races on Thursday’s Colonial Downs card.
First Race
1. Turkish Breeze
2. Over My Cents
3. Set Ablaze
TURKISH BREEZE has finished second in her last two starts at Laurel and will ship off the claim for Hester; she’s a consistent type who doesn’t offer a ton of flash in comparison to other contenders, but she’s a proven dirt runner and seemed to be circling a second victory back in Maryland; Lopez rides who could end up on the front end in a small field. OVER MY CENTS has run some big races on the turf recently, and based on the manner in which she progressed on that surface, it’s conceivable that she could carry the form back to dirt; that being said, it is an unproven thing, as she has not run on dirt since March, when she was a very different and middling sort of runner; Magana and Ruiz make a dynamic pair and the jockey stays for the surface switch. SET ABLAZE is another one switching back to the dirt after steady, if unsuccessful, gains on the turf; she has not run since last September, which creates a new puzzle in several respects; not only was her dirt form erratic when she last ran over the surface, but she has not tried it in more than a year; she might need a start regardless.
Second Race
1. Bushido
2. Warheart
3. One Timer
BUSHIDO will have to run on short rest if he wants to make it three in a row here, but the gelding has simply been too good to ignore in this field; since switching back to turf, he has gone to the front in back-to-back starts and looked even stronger in June than he did in April, kicking clear to a 4 1/4-length victory in a second-level allowance, for which he earned an 88 Beyer; he’s obviously which is always scary, but it’s also hard to get around him. WARHEART returned from a short break in April and ran a solid race against a tough allowance field, chasing the early speed and fading back to fourth with a 76 Beyer; his room for improvement is limited coming off another short break, but this group is more forgiving too. ONE TIMER was once a legitimate graded stakes contender, and while those days are probably behind him, he remains dangerous on turf and could be potent off a lengthy break for Rivelli; he has not won since August 2023, so it would be a mild surprise if he fires huge, but this is an encouraging spot to place him in his 2026 debut.
Third Race
1. Emerald Spun
2. Panama Canal
3. Hay Grace Brennan
EMERALD SPUN is a clear standout in this field after firing off back-to-back 68 Beyers on turf at Churchill Downs; she had never tried the surface before and clearly seems to be taking to it, even if she wasn’t quite sharp enough to win as an outsider in Kentucky; Brisset is shipping to Colonial with abundantly clear intentions. PANAMA CANAL only ran once last year and will make her first start for new trainer Motion off a very long layoff; she showed very little in that Pimlico debut, but that was a tough field and she would have been a wild card coming back after so long regardless; this feels like the sort of runner Motion could have geared up as a 4-year-old. HAY GRACE BRENNAN has finished sixth in all three of her career starts, so there’s clearly work to be done here; she has steadily improved in all of those starts while running at long odds, and though she still probably won’t stack up to the top pick or even the unpredictable second pick, she has a shot at a minor prize if she takes to this new course at Colonial.
Fourth Race
1. Forty Seven Smoker
2. Second City Saint
3. Nattie’s Boss
FORTY SEVEN SMOKER will have to draw in, but the 36 Beyer she earned for her runner-up finish at Laurel last time out doesn’t seem to reflect her ability; she came up a neck short over the same course last month and earned a much stronger 52, a figure she has more or less replicated in several turf efforts over the course of her career; Ruiz will return to take the mount and her running style should be suited to an outside post. SECOND CITY SAINT has been extremely erratic while switching between three synthetic tracks in her last three starts; she looked strongest at Woodbine in April, but it’s hard to dismiss the dud at Presque Isle on June 1, even if the early speed in that field proved tough to chase; she finished in the money in two turf starts last year, so there’s reason to trust her switching back. NATTIE’S BOSS is a potential pacesetter in this field and will return to the grass after getting rained off last month; she has never looked stronger than she did in her lone turf start in April, when she led before fading back to fourth; maybe she has more staying power this time.
Fifth Race
1. Bearamour
2. Charlie’s Clock
3. Full Tank
BEARAMOUR is one of several firsters presenting mixed signals to bettors; yes, Desormeaux almost never strikes with debuting runners and might not be asking more of this colt on first asking; on the other hand, there’s so much pointing to a strong outing; sire Vekoma strikes at an astounding 23% rate and this colt’s workout at Keeneland on June 20 is sure to turn some heads. CHARLIE’S CLOCK debuted at Churchill Downs on June 27 and probably won’t try this spot, but the colt obviously warrants consideration if Miller is considering traveling here in the future; the Drain the Clock colt caught a tough field in Kentucky on a sloppy track and would probably earn more respect in these parts. FULL TANK will make his debut for Rivelli with plenty of upside, as the trainer does not ship many duds to Colonial; sire Instagrand only strikes with 5% of debuting runners, so there are reasons to go against, the dam Meadow Dance has already produced a debut winner and the workouts at Hawthorne have been trending in the right direction.
Sixth Race
1. Seasonal Love
2. Sinetic
3. Pajaro
SEASONAL LOVE has only attempted turf twice in his career, finishing second in back-to-back conditioned claimers at Evangeline last summer; he has run on dirt in four starts since, though his return race at Delaware in June was taken off the turf; he did little running that day after losing all chance out of the gate, so the performance can probably be tossed; he was still in solid form over the winter at Delta Downs, and it’s encouraging that Brinkman is doubling down on this return to turf after getting stymied last time out. SINETIC is an obvious contender coming out of restricted allowance company at Laurel, where he has simply struggled to maintain early leads against tough rivals; he will get some class relief for Machado here, and Lopez is always a welcome addition; he has not won since November 2024, but he has seldom been a serious contender in the time since. PAJARO is still trying to get back to the outstanding form he displayed in Florida last summer and has struggled in his three starts; Hernandez is trying his best to find the right spot off a short break.
Eighth Race
1. Reading Time
2. Justifiable Steel
3. Queen Rocket
READING TIME has been a little win-averse since Orseno claimed her in January, but this is an intriguing trip to try to get her back on track; she has proven competitive with a number of running styles recently, so it’s simply a matter of finding the right field to get her back in the winner’s circle; Lopez seems convinced. JUSTIFIABLE STEEL broke her maiden at the end of her juvenile campaign and got right back to business in Indiana in June, kicking clear to win a conditioned claimer with an improved 65 Beyer; West only ships so many runners over for this meet, so the front-runner should be able to handle this step up off a hot streak. QUEEN ROCKET is a steady competitor making her third start off the layoff for Aro; the mare won two of her last three starts in 2025, so there’s clearly still interest, and she has come close at Colonial in the past; in comparison to other contenders, she can be more easily trusted to run her typical race against these.
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