Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Sunday, July 19 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 4
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Ubique (4th race)
Fourth Race
1. Ubique
2. Spitfire
3. Ur Desire
UBIQUE had a trip going short in her career debut, where she wound up second behind a winning stablemate (who has since won again); didn’t earn much of a figure when given more ground to work with in the maiden win, but she did everything right that day, before winning with relative ease; still has plenty of room to improve, which is something that cannot be said for her main rivals. SPITFIRE was stakes-placed as a 2yo, after breaking her maiden on this track as a second-time starter; has hit the board in three straight non-stakes starts routing, and this looks like class relief. UR DESIRE parlayed a nice trip into a determined maiden win when switched to dirt three starts back, and she earned a competitive figure for that race; got in way too tough in her next start, then caught a sloppy track last time.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other nine races on Sunday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Sturdy
2. McDiesel
3. American Grant
STURDY is almost certain to be claimed out of this race as he drops in for $20k to make his return from a short break; gets the distance, and he owns all of the top dirt figures in the field. MCDIESEL faced a tough field of two-life claimers going this distance in March when cutting the pace and settling for third behind two horses who are both worth quite a bit more than $20k; pulled a front-running upset in his next start when rained off to a muddy main track; can play out as the main speed switching from turf to dirt for Rudy. AMERICAN GRANT posted his maiden win in dirt early on; has been competitive in tougher races while racing almost exclusively on turf over the last three years; lack of early speed might be the main obstacle he has to overcome as he returns to dirt on the drop.
Second Race
1. Mizty Fog
2. Forever to Go
3. Ticket to Ride
MIZTY FOG debuted for this tag last summer, where she came wide off the turn in tandem with the impressive winner of that race, before getting left behind as that one powered clear in the stretch; turns back and removes blinkers for the second start off the layoff, after trying to show speed from a tough post going longer last time in the new equipment. FOREVER TO GO is the one to beat dropping into the maiden claiming ranks for the first time in her 4yo debut; she has run well in all three starts sprinting on turf so far. Thought TICKET TO RIDE ran very well when switched to turf for her second start last summer, but she disappointed badly in her next two starts on the surface – albeit in the MSW ranks; she is also turning back for this after trying to go longer in her two starts since returning to NY.
Third Race
1. Sfumato
2. Trail Blaze
3. Start the Day
SFUMATO looked like he needed his debut when breaking poorly and then racing greenly in a race that came back very fast; tried turf in his next start, then failed to make ground in a race that was dominated up close, and that has produced three next-out winners last time; Mott 20 for his last 49 with dirt horses dropping from MSW to maiden claiming (41%, $2.14 ROI). TRAIL BLAZE hit the board in five of his last seven dirt starts in California, including both starts with Lasix earlier this year; makes his second start for Rice after getting wired in his NY debut off the layoff. START THE DAY was nowhere in his debut going long on the grass; dropped for that last one, where he just went evenly after winding up back off the pace early; cuts in half for this while adding blinkers.
Fifth Race
1. No Tide
2. Factory Setting
3. Pelican Pride
NO TIDE failed to break sharply from the gate, then was rank in the early stages of that debut here last month; she never looked comfortable in that race, and it is at least worth noting that she had several gaps in her work tab leading up to the race; well-bred filly is eligible to improve quickly with that experience behind her. FACTORY SETTING switched to turf in the same race that both NO TIDE and PELICAN PRIDE exit here during the Belmont Stakes Festival; this filly ran very well in the surface debut while enduring a tough trip from start to finish; draws inside, but she will be a shorter price this time. PELICAN PRIDE has been a handful to ride so far, though she showed some potential in the debut once she got some room to run; nothing really went right for her last time in an effort that is easy to forgive; rider change for this, but took the worst of the draw.
Sixth Race
1. Ed Charles
2. George St.
3. Tonja’s Treasure
ED CHARLES leveled nicely into that 10.3 breeze prior to selling for $60k in March; new sire already has a debut winner from limited starters, and this trainer does excellent work with first-time starters. GEORGE ST. debuted for one of the top first-out trainers in the game, and this colt, by speed influence Maclean’s Music, has already progressed up to five furlongs in the morning; does have a lot of turf on the bottom of his pedigree. TONJA’S TREASURE is by a promising new sire, from a dam who had a lot of speed and was a four-time winner sprinting on dirt; interesting that Prat takes the mount for an underrated trainer.
Seventh Race
1. National Archive
2. Silvology
3. Agia Marina
NATIONAL ARCHIVE won a race going this trip as a 3yo, then tried a much tougher Grade 3 to no avail before getting a break; third off the layoff and stretching back out after an underrated effort last time when closing ground into a wickedly fast final fraction. SILVOLOGY improved as soon as she was stretched out in distance by Shug, and she was twice graded stakes-placed going long early last year before enduring a long layoff; viewing that return race as a prep going shorter than she prefers. AGIA MARINA just jumped up with a career-best effort when stretched out to this distance at Aqueduct; she is facing tougher here, but that was an impressive win, and she still has plenty of room to improve.
Eighth Race
1. Iron Dome
2. Playa Del Mar
3. Georgia Magic
IRON DOME had his coming-out party here last summer while winning three times in impressive fashion, including the Albany over fellow NY-breds; makes his second start as a 4yo after running well into a hot horse at Oaklawn back in April, and he has the required tactical speed to get position out of the chute going this distance. PLAYA DEL MAR has improved noticeably while posting two blowout wins off the claim for Rice this year; earned a figure for that last one that makes him tough in here, and he has also found improved speed for this trainer, though this will be a lot tougher. GEORGIA MAGIC won a race out of the chute here last summer; didn’t love his effort two back when off the claim for this trainer, though he got right back on track last time while blowing a weaker field away with a new Beyer top.
Ninth Race
1. El Magnate
2. Johnny’s Red Storm
3. Intricate Spirit
EL MAGNATE impressed winning first time out while overcoming trouble at the start, and even more trouble as that field came to the stretch; had an easier time of it in the allowance race, though he handled that assignment convincingly; switching to turf no issue, as his dam was a Grade 3 winner on the surface, while the second dam won several major Group 1 races overseas; needs a scratch to get in, but there is plenty of speed in the field to help him get a trip from the outside. JOHNNY’S RED STORM was an impressive debut winner here as a 2yo despite showing some greenness in the stretch; was more professional when dominating a rich Kentucky Downs stakes race in his second start, after which he was given time off – reportedly for issues related to soundness; talented colt has a fast breeze showing for the return. INTRICATE SPIRIT earned a competitive figure winning a stakes race as a 2yo, that after an impressive debut win of his own on this track; endured a tough trip at Keeneland two back, then took no prisoners on the lead when bouncing back last time with blinkers on; might need to rate and run this time.
Tenth Race
1. Roagna
2. Artistic Success
3. Leslie’s Star
ROAGNA was an impressive debut winner way back at the end of 2023, after which she continuously tried, and failed, to clear her first-level allowance condition as a 4-and-5-year-old; traffic trouble left her with too much to do when she was finally given class relief at the end of last year, and Bond might have been tightening her up when putting her on the lead off the layoff while using the waiver; appears tp be plenty of speed for her to come after this time. ARTISTIC SUCCESS ran the two best races of her career last summer at Saratoga, including a front-running maiden win when stretched out for the first time; came back to earn a field-best 77 Beyer in her next start, then tried a couple of tougher races before the layoff; stretching back out and reuniting with Irad for her second start off the bench. LESLIE’S STAR faced tougher in her two routes here as a 3yo, then turned back and earned a career-best 73 Beyer at this level at the end of the meet; raced in tight and was bumped coming to the stretch when claimed two back; she was also tried on the lead last time, but is plenty capable from off the pace.
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