Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, July 18, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams on 7+ game winning streaks playing against an intraleague opponent with a win percentage within 10% of them have gone 57-21 SU (+23.93 units, ROI: 30.7%) when priced in the -350 to +100 line range since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-109 vs TB)
Trend: SEA is 26-6 (+17.34 units) in home games with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-157 vs SF)
* TEXAS is 5-23 SU (-17.14 units) on the road in the first three series post All-Star Break since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-105 at ATL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 156-123 for -1.97 units and an ROI of -0.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-109 vs TB), ARIZONA (-120 vs STL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 40-29 for +1.79 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH GAME 1 (+109 at CLE), PHILADELPHIA (-186 vs NYM), SAN FRANCISCO (+130 at SEA)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 56-90 for -38.3 units and an ROI of -26.2%! Fading these teams continues to produce.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-111 at KC)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 106-139 for -1.07 units. After losing about 11 units over the last month, this angle has finally gone into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-114 at COL), WASHINGTON (-115 at ATH)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 49-29 for -16.02 units, ROI -20.5%, as it is now acting like its usual self.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-198 at LAA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 194-248 for -33.05 units. This ROI of -7.5% is much less than what we’ve come to expect.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-109 at TOR), BOSTON (-109 vs TB), HOUSTON (-109 vs BAL), CLEVELAND GAME 2 (-106 vs PIT), ATHLETICS (-104 vs WSH)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 164-105 for +38.94 units, an ROI of +14.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-114 at COL), SAN DIEGO (-111 at KC), ATLANTA (-114 vs TEX), ARIZONA (-120 vs STL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 130-154 start for -16.12 units (ROI -5.7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the L3 regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 53-70 for -16.49 units and a solid ROI of -13.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3+games – PITTSBURGH GAME 1 (+109 at CLE), MINNESOTA (+123 at CHC), BALTIMORE (-110 at HOU), SAN FRANCISCO (+130 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 97-103 for +7.71 units. However, it did lose -6.63 units last week.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-111 vs CWS), COLORADO (-105 vs CIN), TAMPA BAY (-110 at BOS), MIAMI (+123 at MIL), LA ANGELS (+163 vs DET)
MLB Post-All Star-Break Trends/Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays look at how teams fare coming out of the All-Star break in previous seasons. This study looks at the first three series for each team after the Midsummer Classic, unless otherwise noted.
In the first three series post-All-Star break, home underdogs are 158-153 for +43.94 units (ROI: 14.1%) since 2019.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-109 vs CWS), COLORADO (-106 vs CIN), BOSTON (-109 vs TB), KANSAS CITY (-108 vs SD), HOUSTON (-109 vs BAL)
* In the first three series post-All-Star break, games with higher totals (O/U >= 9) have gone Under at a 350-268-38 (56.6%) rate since 2016.
Trend Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CWS-TOR (o/u at 9.5), CIN-COL (o/u at 12.5), TB-BOS (o/u at 9.5), SD-KC (o/u at 11), TEX-ATL (o/u at 9), BAL-HOU (o/u at 9), STL-AZ (o/u at 9), LAD-NYY (o/u at 9), WSH-ATH (o/u at 11.5)
In the first three series post-All-Star break, National League teams have had a slight edge in interleague play, going 132-116 for +14.12 units (ROI: 5.7%) since 2016.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH GAME 1 (+109 at CLE), CHICAGO CUBS (-149 vs MIN), SAN DIEGO (-111 at KC), ATLANTA (-114 vs TEX), PITTSBURGH GAME 2 (-114 at CLE), LA DODGERS (-106 at NYY), SAN FRANCISCO (+130 at SEA), WASHINGTON (-115 at ATH)
TEAM NOTABLES (*first three series post ASB*)
* ARIZONA – 14-8 (+5.47 units) at home since 2021 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-120 vs STL)
* ATLANTA – 36-49 SU (-18.77 units) overall since 2016 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-114 vs TEX)
* BOSTON – 16-23 SU (-9.59 units) overall since 2022 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-109 vs TB)
* CHICAGO CUBS – 50-31-5 (61.7%) to the Under overall since 2016 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-CHC (o/u at 8.5)
* CINCINNATI – 27-11 (71.1%) to the Under overall since 2022 ASB
* COLORADO – 29-10-2 (74.4%) to the Under at home since 2018 ASB
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-COL (o/u at 12.5)
* COLORADO – 11-7 SU (+9.51 units) at home since 2023 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (-105 vs CIN)
* KANSAS CITY – 20-12 (62.5%) to the Under at home since 2021 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-KC (o/u at 11)
* NY METS – 23-14 SU (+10.95 units) on the road since 2018 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (+153 at PHI)
* PITTSBURGH – 5-15 SU (-6.37 units) on the road since 2019 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH GAME 1 and GAME 2 (at CLE)
* SAN DIEGO – 24-14 SU (+11.77 units) on the road in the -145 to +190 line range since 2021 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-111 at KC)
* SAN FRANCISCO – 10-21 SU (-12.89 units) on the road since 2022 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+130 at SEA)
* SEATTLE – 2-11 SU (-13.40 units) at home in low-totaled games (o/u <= 7) since 2016 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-157 vs SF)
* TAMPA BAY – 8-17 SU (-10.28 units) on the road since 2022 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-110 at BOS)
* TEXAS – 5-23 SU (-17.14 units) on the road since 2019 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-105 at ATL)
* TORONTO – 18-11 (+6.81 units) overall since 2023 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-111 vs CWS)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 431-370 but for -90.45 units and an ROI of -11.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND GAME 1 (-131 vs PIT)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 453-401 record for +45.74 units and an ROI of 5.4% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH GAME 1 (+109 at CLE)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 465-451 (50.8%) for +10.92 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 1.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-109 vs CWS), ATHLETICS (-104 vs WSH), SEATTLE (-157 vs SF)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2158-2034 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -260.58 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH GAME 1 (+109 at CLE), BOSTON (-109 vs TB), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-111 at TOR), ATLANTA (-115 vs TEX), WASHINGTON (-115 at ATH)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,184-2,766 (44.1%) for -277.69 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-106 at NYY), TEXAS (-105 at ATL), MIAMI (+123 at MIL), DETROIT (-198 at LAA)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 655-550 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +16.84 units, for an ROI of 1.4%.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-157 vs SF)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 349-313 (52.6%) for +19.92 units and an ROI of 3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-104 vs WSH)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 107-152 SU (-20.76 units, ROI: -8%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (-108 vs SD), ST LOUIS (+100 at AZ)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 78-152 skid (-42.47 units, ROI: -18.5%).
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-104 vs WSH)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 20-25 (+8.79 units, ROI: 19.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 103-188 (-65.70 units, ROI: -22.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-104 vs WSH)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 311-322 run (+10.19 units, ROI: 1.6%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MIAMI (+123 at MIL)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 87-70 (+21.05 units, ROI: 13.4%) in their last 157 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-110 at HOU)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 199-160 (+17.14 units, ROI: 4.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-109 vs TB)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 256-172 in their last 428 tries (+35.95 units, ROI: 8.4%).
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-110 at HOU)
Winning Streak Betting System #11:
Teams on 7+ game winning streaks playing against an intraleague opponent with a win percentage within 10% of them have gone 57-21 SU (+23.93 units, ROI: 30.7%) when priced in the -350 to +100 line range since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-109 vs TB)
Winning Streak Betting System #12:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won nine games in a row or more, the lowest priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks on 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 46-26 (+21.12 units, ROI: 29.3%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-109 vs TB)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 398-391 for +7.35 units, good for 0.9% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: PITTSBURGH GAME 2 -106 (+37 diff), LA ANGELS +163 (+27), HOUSTON -109 (+23), BOSTON -109 (+16), PITTSBURGH GAME 1 +109 (+15), LA DODGERS -106 (+15), NY METS +153 (+10)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ATLANTA -114 (+26 diff), ARIZONA -120 (+17), CHICAGO CUBS -149 (+10)
Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 run edge on either the Over or Under. On Over projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 14-8 for +4.48 units and an ROI of 20.8%. On Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Unders are 23-10 for +11.2 units and an ROI of 33.9%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (1.0 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: MIN-CHC OVER 8.5 (+1.2)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (1.0 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: CWS-TOR UNDER 9.5 (-1.5)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 92-75 for +8 units and an ROI of 4.8%. TODAY’s MATCHES:
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CWS-TOR UNDER 9.5 (-1.5), WSH-ATH UNDER 11.5 (-0.7)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(903) NEW YORK-NL (41-57) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (54-44)
Trend: Sean Manaea’s teams are 9-13 (-8.76 units) when he starts against NL East opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+153 at PHI)
(911) BALTIMORE (47-51) at (912) HOUSTON (47-52)
Trend: Under the total is 23-12 (+10.20 units) with starter Trevor Rogers since the start of the 2025 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-HOU (o/u at 9)
(913) TAMPA BAY (56-40) at (914) BOSTON (48-48)
Trend: Patrick Sandoval’s teams are 2-11 (-10.81 units) when he starts at home against divisional opponents with a > 41% win pct
Trend: Patrick Sandoval’s teams are 7-16 (-11.73 units) in his last 23 day game starts
Trends Match (FADE): BOSTON (-109 vs TB)
(915) DETROIT (45-52) at (916) LOS ANGELES-AL (38-60)
Trend: DET is 25-12 (+4.72 units) in Tarik Skubal’s last 37 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-199 at LAA)
(917) MINNESOTA (49-49) at (918) CHICAGO-NL (54-43)
Trend: Over the total is 30-15-2 (+13.50 units) in MIN road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-CHC (o/u at 8.5)
(919) TEXAS (49-48) at (920) ATLANTA (56-40)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore’s teams are 11-25 (-12.73 units) when he starts vs NL East opponents in his career
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-105 at ATL)
(921) SAN DIEGO (48-49) at (922) KANSAS CITY (39-59)
Trend: Under the total is 28-19-2 (+7.10 units) when SD is favored this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-KC (o/u at 11)
Trend: Griffin Canning’s teams are 3-13 (-11.17 units) when he starts on the road in the +105 to -130 line range in the last 6+ years
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-111 at KC)
(925) SAN FRANCISCO (42-55) at (926) SEATTLE (48-50)
Trend: SEA is 26-6 (+17.34 units) in home games with starter Bryan Woo since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-157 vs SF)
(929) WASHINGTON (49-49) at (930) ATHLETICS (41-56)
Trend: WSH is 34-13 (+16.77 units) on the run line in away games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-1.5 at ATH)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): MINNESOTA, BOSTON, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND GAME 1, MINNESOTA, SAN DIEGO, TEXAS, PITTSBURGH GAME 2, LA DODGERS, SEATTLE, ATHLETICS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TEX-ATL, BAL-HOU
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next few Monday, July 20)
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