Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 7 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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9:38 p.m. ET: Athletics at Los Angeles Angels (-120, 8.5)
This is the final game of a four-game series.
The Angels (17-33) won the opener 2-1, walking off as +110 home dogs. Then the Athletics (25-24) won the second game 14-6 as +120 road dogs and posted another victory last night, winning 6-5 in extra innings as -130 road favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Athletics hand the ball to righty Luis Severino (2-5, 4.45 ERA) and the Angels go with fellow righty Jose Soriano (6-3, 2.41 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -120 home favorite and the Athletics a +100 road dog.
We’ve seen the Angels remain stagnant at -120 or dip down to -115 across the market. This signals sneaky sharp liability on the Athletics, who have seen the line remain the same (+100) or move slightly in their favor (+100 to -105).
At DraftKings, the A’s are receiving 54% of moneyline bets and a whopping 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the A’s are taking in 55% of moneyline bets but 66% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the road team.
The Athletics have the better bats, hitting .251 with a .329 OBP, .401 slugging percentage and 221 runs scored compared to the Angels hitting .224 with a .312 OBP, .376 slugging percentage and 199 runs scored.
The A’s are hitting .254 against righties (6th best in MLB) while the Angels are hitting just .217 (30th and dead last).
Severino has posted a 3.56 ERA on the road compared to 5.55 at home.
Meanwhile, Soriano has posted a 6.35 ERA in three May starts, giving up 12 earned runs in 17 innings pitched. Los Angeles is 1-3 in his last four starts. He has a 3.86 ERA at home compared to 1.14 on the road.
The A’s have the better bullpen as well, sporting a team ERA of 4.51 compared to 5.60 for the Angels (2nd worst in MLB).
The Athletics are 15-12 on the road. The Angels are 9-15 at home.
9:40 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-200, 9.5)
The Rockies (19-31) just dropped two of three against the Rangers, losing yesterday’s series finale 5-4 as +100 home dogs. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks (25-23) just swept the Giants, winning 6-3 yesterday as a -110 home pick’em.
In tonight’s series opener, the Rockies start righty Zach Agnos (0-0, 5.59 ERA) and the Diamondbacks turn to lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (4-1, 2.53 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -185 home favorite and Colorado a +165 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with the Snakes, steaming Arizona up from -185 to -200, with some shops creeping up to as high as -205 or even -210.
At DraftKings, Arizona is receiving 89% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Diamondbacks are taking in 63% of moneyline bets and 68% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Smart money has also sided with Arizona on the run-line (-1.5 at -105), as the Diamondbacks are receiving 87% of spread bets and 95% of spread dollars at DraftKings along with 75% of spread bets and 98% of spread dollars at Circa.
Sweet spot home favorites priced between -200 and -240 with at least 15 cents of steam in their favor, like the Snakes here, are 99-39 (72%) with a 5% ROI since 2024.
Rodriguez has posted a 1.74 ERA in three May starts, allowing only 4 earned runs in 20.2 innings pitched. Arizona is 6-1 in his last seven starts. He is 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA at home this season.
Meanwhile, Agnos has posted a 5.40 ERA in four May appearances (all losses), giving up 7 earned runs in 11.2 innings pitched.
Arizona is 15-9 at home. Colorado is 9-16 on the road.
