Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer preview the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.
The Kentucky Oaks goes Friday evening at Churchill Downs as the featured 13th race on a 13-race card, with a $1.5 million purse and a post time of 8:40 p.m. Eastern. Aragona and Beer arrive at the same trifecta in different order: Aragona tops with No. 2 Zany, the 4-1 morning-line favorite, while Beer goes with No. 9 Always a Runner and has Zany second. A year after Good Cheer towered over the field, this Oaks reads as the opposite – wide open and separated more by trip than talent.
The pace question
There are 14 fillies are drawn to the main body of the field, with No. 6 My Miss Mo and No. 8 Bottle of Rouge announced as scratches and No. 15 Lovely Grey and No. 16 Nycon expected to draw in. “Trips become very important,” Beer says, “with 14 of these horses sort of barreling toward the first turn.” Aragona agrees several contenders share running styles as well as résumés, with “a ton of tactical speed, not necessarily a bunch of front-running speed.”
Aragona’s top pick: No. 2 Zany
Zany, trained by Todd Pletcher, looked the part of a standout when she won the Demoiselle by open lengths as a juvenile, earning a Beyer of 89 that ranks near the top of this group. She has not matched that figure as a sophomore, but Aragona thinks the narrative that she has not improved is wrong. He points to her seasonal debut in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. The form of that race was flattered when runner-up Life of Joy came back to win the Fair Grounds Oaks.
“She was so convincing to me winning that race despite doing just about everything wrong,” Beer says, citing her tendency to lug in and imperfect lead changes.
Her last-out defeat in the Ashland came over what Aragona calls Keeneland’s “short stretch configuration . . . where they basically have a furlong from the far turn to the wire.” He believes the longer Churchill stretch suits her and that she will relish getting back to 1 1/8 miles.
Beer’s top pick: No. 9 Always a Runner
Beer keeps the Chad Brown-trained Always a Runner on top, a decision he describes as sticking with a horse who is “all upside.” She stepped up off a maiden win at Tampa Bay Downs to take the Gazelle at Aqueduct, a performance Beer calls visually impressive regardless of the figure.
“I don’t care what figure it got,” Beer says. “It was a very impressive win.”
Always a Runner has only two career starts, and Beer acknowledges she “is going to give away some experience in this race.”
Aragona points to her late kick in the Gazelle, when she ran down No. 13 Pashmina in the final eighth. “She’s got the best closing kick of anybody in this race,” Aragona says, “but is she gonna be professional enough to pick her way from 13th or 14th through the pack?”
No. 10 Prom Queen
Both handicappers slot the Brad Cox-trained No. 10 Prom Queen third. She stepped up off a maiden win into the Gulfstream Park Oaks and beat No. 6 My Miss Mo with Javier Castellano riding.
“Her pedigree is all distance on the bottom,” Beer says. “She’s a really dangerous horse in here.”
The handicappers’ verdict
David Aragona’s picks
No. 2 Zany
No. 10 Prom Queen
No. 9 Always a Runner
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 9 Always a Runner
No. 2 Zany
No. 10 Prom Queen
For more from David and Mike, check out this video preview:
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