Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for July 9. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Thursday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Thursday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Janson Junk Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-122) vs. Mariners
Mariners at Marlins – 6:40 pm ET
Junk is making his first start since May 25, so we don’t know how long he’ll go in this one. However, as long as he flirts with 80 pitches, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t rack up four or more strikeouts. Junk doesn’t have outrageous swing-and-miss stuff, so this is more of a play against Seattle than a play on the righty. The Mariners are a team I’ve been looking to target the last couple of weeks, as they have a strikeout rate of 23.3% on the year. It’s also up at 26.2% over the last 10 games. He’s getting them at the right time, so hopefully he’s healthy.
Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135) vs. Athletics
Athletics at Tigers – 6:40 pm ET
I don’t love dealing with significant juice to go Over on a hitter prop for a player on the home team, but I just love this matchup for McGonigle. The lefty bat is averaging 2.3 HRR per game over the last 15 games, going Over 1.5 HRR in 10 of those 15 games. He has also gone Over 1.5 HRR in six of his last 10 games against right-handed pitchers, and the Athletics will have a shaky one on the mound tonight. Jack Perkins carries a 6.75 ERA into tonight’s game, and he has gotten beat up in three of his last six starts.
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-116) vs. Padres
Diamondbacks at Padres – 9:40 pm ET
Carroll really hasn’t been playing very well lately, but tonight could be a night he does some damage. Griffin Canning will be the starter for the Padres, and this is a righty that has a 7.02 ERA through eight starts this year. That means that Carroll will have a couple of looks at a shaky starter, in a game with a pretty high total. Carroll is actually 2 for 6 with a homer off Canning, so the matchup has been kind to him in the past.
Additional Picks
Mitch Keller Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-131 – 1.5 units) vs. Braves
Michael Wacha Over 18.5 Outs (+128) vs. Mets
Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-133) vs. Twins
Patrick Sandoval Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+128) vs. White Sox
Jesus Luzardo Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+110) vs. Reds
Christian Yelich Over 1.5 Total Bases (+132) vs. Cardinals
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-118) vs. Rockies
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Bryan Torres Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-140) vs. Brewers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.96 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -608 — a +27.5% edge to the Over.
James Outman Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-140) vs. Athletics
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.72 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -456 — a +23.7% edge to the Over.
Josh Lowe Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-151) vs. Rangers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.63 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -409 — a +20.2% edge to the Over.
