Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, July 9, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 169-91 SU (+42.22 units, ROI: 16.2%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-131 at MIN)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi’s teams are 20-5 (+11.31 units) when he starts at home vs opponents with a < 48% win percentage in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-142 vs LAA)
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 255-172 in their last 427 tries (+34.95 units, ROI: 8.2%).
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+103 at CWS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 151-119 for -2.66 units and an ROI of -1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+103 at CWS), LA ANGELS (+118 at TEX)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 51-87 for -40.20 units and an ROI of -29.1%! Fading these teams is producing better than ever before.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-132 vs AZ)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 102-130 for +3.31 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect; however, it has lost over 6.5 units the last four-and-a-half weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+135 vs PHI), SAN FRANCISCO (-136 vs COL), CHICAGO CUBS (+104 at BAL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 180-237 for -37.55 units. This ROI of -9% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect at all.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-110 at PIT), NY YANKEES (+124 at TB), BOSTON (+103 at CWS), LA ANGELS (+118 at TEX), CHICAGO CUBS (+104 at BAL), MIAMI (+105 vs SEA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 121-146 start for -19.38 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 50-68 for -18.49 units and a solid ROI of -15.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – TAMPA BAY (-150 vs NYY)
3+ games – MINNESOTA (+109 vs CLE)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 93-94 for +12.42 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-125 vs CHC), ATHLETICS (+113 at DET)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 453-475 but for +31.28 units and an ROI of 3.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-125 vs CHC), CLEVELAND (-131 at MIN), ATHLETICS (+113 at DET)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 764-990 but for +34.22 units and an ROI of 2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (+124 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+124 at NYM), CHICAGO CUBS (+104 at BAL), BOSTON (+103 at CWS), ATHLETICS (+113 at DET), LA ANGELS (+118 at TEX), ARIZONA (+110 at SD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 464-450 (50.8%) for +12.31 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 1.3%.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-142 vs LAA)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2151-2027 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -262.26 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+104 at BAL), CINCINNATI (+135 vs PHI), LA ANGELS (+118 at TEX), SAN DIEGO (-132 vs AZ)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,174-2,749 (44.2%) for -270.82 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+113 at DET), NY YANKEES (+124 at TB), SEATTLE (-136 at MIA), KANSAS CITY (+124 at NYM), MILWAUKEE (-136 at STL)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 652-547 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +17.12 units, for an ROI of 1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-110 vs ATL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-125 vs BOS), SAN FRANCISCO (-136 vs COL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 391-196 (66.6%) for +56.76 units and an ROI of 9.7%!
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-125 vs CHC)
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 65-42-5 (60.7%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 35-15 Over streak in the last 50).
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-BAL (o/u at 9.5)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 169-91 SU (+42.22 units, ROI: 16.2%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-131 at MIN)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #6:
Having at least 50 games under their belt for the year, interleague plus-money underdogs who have a 10% or higher win percentage than their opponent have gone 50-36 SU for +22.39 units (ROI: 26%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+104 at BAL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 309-320 run (+9.98 units, ROI: 1.6%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND (-131 at MIN)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 80-69 (+14.63 units, ROI: 9.8%) in their last 149 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+103 at CWS)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 192-159 (+10.72 units, ROI: 3.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+103 at CWS)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 255-172 in their last 427 tries (+34.95 units, ROI: 8.2%).
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+103 at CWS)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: TAMPA BAY -150 (+17 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: LAA-TEX OVER 7 (+0.8), MIL-STL OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ATH-DET UNDER 9 (-1.0), AZ-SD UNDER 9 (-0.8), ATL-PIT UNDER 9.5 (-0.5), BOS-CWS UNDER 9 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) ATLANTA (53-38) at (952) PITTSBURGH (47-46)
Trend: PIT is 13-25 (-12.58 units) vs NL East teams with starter Mitch Keller in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: PIT is 12-28 (-12.24 units) vs teams with a >58% win pct with starter Mitch Keller in the last 6+ seasons
Trends Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-110 vs ATL)
(955) MILWAUKEE (58-34) at (956) ST LOUIS (48-43)
Trend: STL is 37-17 (+12.93 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 vs MIL)
Trend: Over the total is 4-0 when St Louis faces MIL with starter Andre Pallante (5.92 ERA across 16 total appearances)
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-STL (o/u at 8.5)
(957) ARIZONA (45-47) at (958) SAN DIEGO (46-46)
Trend: AZ is 14-28 (-10.50 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+104 at SD)
(961) NEW YORK-AL (50-42) at (962) TAMPA BAY (54-36)
Trend: TB is 31-15 (+21.75 units) on the run line at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 vs NYY)
(963) CLEVELAND (47-46) at (964) MINNESOTA (46-47)
Trend: MIN is 12-4 (+10.12 units) as a +100 or worse underdog at home with starter Bailey Ober in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+109 vs CLE)
(965) BOSTON (42-48) at (966) CHICAGO-AL (47-44)
Trend: Patrick Sandoval’s teams are 6-16 (-12.73 units) in his last 22 day game starts
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (+103 at CWS)
Trend: CWS is 28-16 (+13.95 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-125 vs BOS)
(967) ATHLETICS (41-51) at (968) DETROIT (42-50)
Trend: Framber Valdez’s teams are 11-5 when he starts vs ATH in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-136 vs ATH)
(969) LOS ANGELES-AL (37-56) at (970) TEXAS (46-46)
Trend: LAA is 9-17 (-8.35 units) on the road in the -160 to +131 line range with starter Reid Detmers the last few seasons
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi’s teams are 20-5 (+11.31 units) when he starts at home vs opponents with a < 48% win percentage in the last 6+ seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-142 vs LAA)
(971) KANSAS CITY (38-55) at (972) NEW YORK-NL (39-54)
Trend: KC is 18-29 (-7.05 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+111 at NYM)
(973) CHICAGO-NL (52-40) at (974) BALTIMORE (42-51)
Trend: David Peterson’s teams are 8-12 (-4.88 units) when he starts on the road within line range -129 to +129 since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (+104 at BAL)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #32: Cleveland at Minnesota, Tue 7/7-Thu 7/9
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 37-18 (67.3%, +19.68 units).
– The ROI on this trend is 35.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-131 at MIN)
Series #34: Colorado at San Francisco, Thu 7/9-Sun 7/12
Trend: SAN FRANCISCO is on a 24-4 (85.7%, +14.15 units) surge hosting Colorado
– The ROI on this trend is 50.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-136 vs COL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+124 at NYM), BALTIMORE (-125 vs CHC), SEATTLE (-136 at MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-125 vs CHC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-PIT (o/u at 9.5), CHC-BAL (o/u at 9.5)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, July 10)
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