Handicapping the MLB Weekend Games by Early-Season Team Trends:
Hopefully by now, you’ve become well-acquainted with our daily MLB Analytics Reports, and they’ve become a fundamental part of your daily routine for handicapping the baseball action each day. They are loaded with all kinds of great system, trend, and rating analysis, including the very successful Bullpen System data that I have been writing about every Monday. While we will still, of course, have all that for each day this weekend, I thought I’d take some time to look at each of the 15 series from a more narrow focus, that being just focusing on some of the early-season tendencies the teams have demonstrated, and how they are doing recently. It is an interesting weekend across the league too, with several matchups between hot & not teams of late. Let’s get right into it.
ATLANTA (38-19) at CINCINNATI (29-26)
Despite a current 2-5 stretch, Atlanta remains in firm control of the NL East Division as it heads into a weekend set with Cincinnati. The Reds are in a crowded race for second in the Central, 5-games behind the Brewers. The Braves have been solid in almost every betting spot this season and are 19-games over-.500. They have actually played their best ball on the road, going 21-9 for +11 units of profit. They are also 19-9 Over the total on the road, putting up 6.0 runs per game. Cincinnati’s best betting spot so far has been against left-handed starters, as the Reds boast a 9-3 mark for +6.69 units vs. southpaws. They are scoring 5.9 RPG in that spot. The Braves are slotted to go with one lefty in the series, on Saturday with Martin Perez. That figures to be the Reds’ best shot at a win.
SAN DIEGO (31-24) at WASHINGTON (29-28)
San Diego seems to be going through the motions lately, and oddsmakers have certainly picked up on that notion. For game 1 of the series versus Washington, the Padres are an underdog on the road, despite a fairly solid start in the return of Lucas Giolito to date. The Nats are playing good baseball, taking two games in each of their last five series. The most noteworthy trends in this series show the Padres being much better on the road and Washington being much worse at home, so that would figure to benefit San Diego here. In fact, the Padres are 14-7 on the road as opposed to 16-16 at home, while the Nats are 10-16 at home but 19-12 on the road. San Diego needs a series win; this looks like a good spot to get it, and at good value, considering the huge edge they own in my bullpen ratings.
MIAMI (26-31) at NEW YORK-NL (23-33)
Whenever it seems that the Mets are finally taking a step forward, they take two steps back. Since winning 6 of 7 games earlier this month, they have regressed and come into the weekend set versus division rival Miami on a 2-7 skid. New York is still 10-games under .500 and looking up at Atlanta in the standings, 14.5 games out of the division lead. Miami is 12 games back and off back-to-back losses, which snapped a previous 4-game winning streak. The Marlins have gone just 8-16 on the road to date, good for -3.88 units of loss. The Mets haven’t been good at home nor the road, but they are putting up 0.5 more runs per game at Citi Field. Both of these teams struggle against left-handers; however, the early projected starters are all righties for the series. While the odds would figure New York would be good for a couple wins here, bet on them at your own peril at this point.
CHICAGO-NL (31-26) at ST LOUIS (29-25)
The biggest rivalry series of the weekend finds the Cubs traveling to St Louis to take on the Cardinals. Neither team is playing great baseball right now, although the Cubs have won back-to-back games to snuff out a 10-game losing skid. The Cardinals come off a series sweep at the hands of the Brewers, which dropped them back into the pack of teams vying for the second spot in the NL Central. If you’re looking for anything that might give the Cubs the edge in this set, consider that they are a healthy 18-11 in night games for +6.67 units and all three games of the series will be evening contests. That said, the Cardinals are even one better in that spot, 19-10 for +11.6 units. Something has to give here. Oddsmakers have the Cubs favored on the road in the first two contests at least. Are they playing good enough baseball to warrant that respect, however?
SAN FRANCISCO (22-34) at COLORADO (20-37)
Two struggling teams in the NL West get together in Denver this weekend, with the Rockies hosting the Giants for three games. San Francisco has lost its last three games and is 2-7 in its last 9. Colorado is on a 5-game skid and has lost 14 of its last 18 games. Naturally, there aren’t going to be a whole lot of good trends to focus on when both teams are at least 12-games under-.500, but the Rockies have been particularly bad in the early going versus divisional foes, going 5-16 for -7.53 units. The Giants are a heavy favorite in Logan Webb going in game 1, but they also seem like a team not worthy of your betting dollar.
PHILADELPHIA (29-27) at LOS ANGELES-NL (36-20)
Theoretically, this would be the best matchup of the weekend in baseball, with two NL powers squaring off. The Phillies haven’t exactly played like one this season. Although they have won three straight games, they did so by scoring just 10 total runs against the Padres. They haven’t hit the 6-run mark in any of their last 9 games, which could prove a problem against the suddenly hot again Dodgers’ bats. LA has put up 40 runs in its last 5 games, all wins, and has reached a season high 16-games over .500 in the process. One good thing for both lineups for this weekend, they will each miss out on the opposing team’s ace, as Cristopher Sanchez and Shohei Ohtani both went in their teams’ most recent contest. The Phils have shown some distinct vs LH/vs RH tendencies in the early going, eight games over .500 versus righties, six games under .500 versus lefties. That might give the Dodgers a game 1 edge, as they go with LH Justin Wrobleski. The defending champs have had their way with lefties, going 10-2 while scoring 6.5 RPG. Keep that in mind for Sunday, when the Phils’ Jesus Luzardo takes the hill.
TORONTO (28-29) at BALTIMORE (26-31)
The Toronto-Baltimore series is the only one for the weekend that began on Thursday. The defending AL Champs won that one on the road, a 2-1 decision. That was their third straight win, and they are also 7-2 in their last 9, perhaps finally resembling the team that we left off the ’25 season with. The Orioles are also playing solid baseball now and had won three straight over the Rays prior to the Thursday setback. Even with that sweep of Tampa Bay, the O’s are just 6-11 versus AL East foes so far, good for -5.39 units. If there’s one particular thing that might separate these teams this weekend, it could be pitching, as the Jays staff has heated up during the recent torrid 9-game stretch, allowing 2 or fewer runs in all seven victories.
LOS ANGELES-AL (22-35) at TAMPA BAY (34-19)
The most lopsided mismatch for the weekend record-wise finds the Angels visiting the Rays for three games. That said, the Angels are 22-35 but actually playing their best baseball of the year currently, having won five of their last 6 games. At the same time, the 34-19 Rays have lost their L4, so while we have a hot and not matchup here, it is actually the opposite of what you’d think in terms of recency. Does that give the Angels a chance to win the series? Well, considering the Halos are 9-11 in day games for +0.2 units, it might not be a horrible wager since the Saturday and Sunday games after afternoon contests. The Rays are 19-5 at home though, since returning to the Trop to start the 2026 season, as well as 24-8 versus AL opponents. I would think the recent momentum would shift this weekend.
BOSTON (23-32) at (918) CLEVELAND (33-25)
Boston is another team that seemingly can’t get anything good extended. After a great 3-game sweep at KC last week, the Red Sox proceeded to go 1-5 at home versus the Twins and Braves. They head back out on the road now, which could be a good thing considering they are 14-13 away from Fenway. Cleveland is 33-25 and leading the way in the AL Central again, 3-games up on the White Sox. The Guardians have been particularly strong against left-handed starters this season, 14-5 for +8.78 units. They are scoring 5.3 RPG in that spot, up 1.7 RPG from the opposite. The Friday and Sunday projected starters for Boston are both lefties. Seems like good fortune for the hosts.
DETROIT (22-35) at CHICAGO-AL (29-27)
At one point in early May, the Tigers were 18-17 and in first place in the AL Central Division. Since then, they have plummeted to last place via a 4-18 skid. The bats have gone cold, the bullpen has unraveled, and they’ve lost some middle infielders to the DL. Detroit’s next opponent is the surging White Sox, who have climbed to second place in the division standings and are coming off a series taking three of four from Minnesota. Chicago has been at its best in front of the home folks and seems to be quickly winning back fans. They are 17-11 at home for +7.1 units while putting up 5.0 RPG. They are also 8-3 in divisional games. Perhaps it’s time to flush the past few seasons and get behind this team.
KANSAS CITY (22-34) at TEXAS (25-31)
Kansas City and Texas have been two of the most disappointing teams in the American League so far, and they go head-to-head for three games in Arlington this weekend. Neither team is playing well right now either, with KC 2-7 in its last 9, and Texas 1-6 in its last 7. Asking for something positive out of the Royals at this point would seem to be a long shot, especially since they are just 7-17 on the road for -10.74 units. Texas hasn’t done much well, but they are better statistically on both offense and defense, and have a sizable bullpen rating edge as well.
NEW YORK-AL (34-22) at ATHLETICS (27-29)
The Yankees erupted for 26 runs in a 3-game sweep of the Royals, and they now have won four in a row as they travel to Cali to take on the Athletics. The hitting atmosphere in Sacramento is usually ripe for hot bats, so I would expect the Bronx Bombers to keep bombing. The Athletics have allowed 38 runs in their last 5 home games, too, so the scoring could come in bunches this weekend. Not surprisingly, the trend of giving up runs at home has been all season long, as they are just 10-15 (-8.67 units) at home in 2026, yielding 6.2 RPG. This doesn’t seem to be a great matchup for the Athletics, especially with the Yankees’ rotation finally settling in after getting some guys healthy.
MINNESOTA (27-30) at PITTSBURGH (29-28)
The first interleague series of the weekend features the Twins and Pirates in the only matchup that has teams with identical bullpen ratings heading into the series. Both the Twins and Pirates are at -2 right now. Perhaps the difference in the series could come down to the fact that the Twins are just 5-10 in interleague play so far, while Pittsburgh is 7-6. The Pirates are also six games over .500 vs. RH starters this season, and that’s all the Twins have scheduled for the 3-game set.
MILWAUKEE (33-20) at HOUSTON (26-32)
Milwaukee has picked up right where it left off last regular season by streaking to a 4-game lead in the NL Central Division. The Brewers are doing almost everything well: offense, defense, stealing bases, manufacturing runs, starting pitching, bullpen, etc. About the only thing they don’t do well is hit HR’s. Houston is also coming on now, and in fact, is playing its best baseball of the young season, having won six of its last 7 games. All of those games were on the road, and the Astros actually haven’t played all that well at home this season, going 12-14 while scoring just 4.0 RPG. Perhaps the other big thing going for the Brewers in this set is how well they’ve played in interleague play, 16-8 so far for +7.04 units. I’d be hard-pressed to bet against Milwaukee to win this series right now, especially with red-hot ace Jacob Misiorowski scheduled for Sunday.
ARIZONA (31-24) at (930) SEATTLE (28-29)
The final series of the weekend features a pair of West Coast teams coming off 3-game sweeps in their last series. Arizona did it to the Giants and has now won 10 of its last 11 games. Seattle got by the Athletics to reverse a 3-6 skid. The DBacks have been much better vs. lefties this year, 9-3 with 6.1 RPG, but they won’t see one in Seattle. The Mariners’ best spot this year has been day games in the early going, 13-9 so far. Only Sunday’s contest is an afternoon tilt. This looks like a series that could go either way. Hard to fade Arizona at this point with as hot as it has been.
