MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, May 31.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
12:15 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Toronto is expected to piece together the game with Spencer Miles handling a starter or bulk role. Miles has been effective with a 2.16 ERA and just 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he has not worked beyond 4⅓ innings in any appearance this season, putting added pressure on a middle-of-the-pack Blue Jays bullpen. Baltimore counters with Kyle Bradish, who owns a 3.86 ERA but a higher 4.13 FIP while allowing 4.6 walks per nine innings. The Orioles have been productive at home, ranking seventh in scoring with 4.9 runs per game.
Pick: Blue Jays vs. Orioles Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
1:35 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Zebby Matthews has impressed in limited action since returning from the injured list, posting a 2.37 ERA through three starts. However, his 3.80 FIP and 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings suggest some warning signs remain after a difficult 2025 season. Braxton Ashcraft has been steady for Pittsburgh with a 2.75 ERA, 0.8 home runs allowed, and 2.2 walks per nine innings. The Pirates rank third in home scoring, while Minnesota’s bullpen ranks 26th in ERA.
Pick: Twins vs. Pirates Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
1:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Jack Kochanowicz has done a good job limiting home runs, but a 4.99 ERA, modest strikeout rate, and elevated walk rate remain concerns. The Angels bullpen entered Saturday tied for the worst ERA in baseball. Shane McClanahan has looked dominant for Tampa Bay with a 2.52 ERA, 2.78 FIP, and only 0.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. He also gets a favorable matchup against an Angels lineup that leads the league in strikeouts.
Pick: Rays Run Line -1.5 +115
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -1.5 -117
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds
Spencer Strider continues to miss bats at an elite rate with 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings, though home runs and walks have inflated some of his underlying numbers. Nick Lodolo has struggled badly with a 5.57 ERA and 6.44 FIP while allowing 2.1 home runs per nine innings. Atlanta owns significant advantages in both bullpen performance and offensive production, ranking second in scoring and first in bullpen ERA.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -126
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -138
2:35 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers
Michael Wacha has posted a strong 2.69 ERA, but his 3.90 FIP suggests some regression may be coming. Kansas City’s road offense has been the worst in baseball, averaging only three runs per game away from home, and the bullpen ranks 28th in ERA. Jack Leiter has been inconsistent, but his strikeout rate and underlying metrics are more encouraging than his ERA, and he is backed by the American League’s best bullpen.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline -108
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -133
3:10 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Robbie Ray has struggled to find consistency, posting a 4.60 ERA and 5.62 FIP while allowing two home runs per nine innings. Tanner Gordon has also had major issues for Colorado with a 5.85 ERA and 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. The Giants hold the edge both offensively and in the bullpen, with San Francisco ranking well ahead of Colorado in relief pitching effectiveness.
Pick: Giants Moneyline -118
Greg’s Handicap: Giants -147
4:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Andrew Painter’s 5.40 ERA is higher than his underlying performance would suggest, as he owns a 4.36 FIP with respectable home run and walk rates. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been excellent for Los Angeles with a 3.09 ERA and strong command. Both offenses have been less productive in this split than their overall season numbers indicate, and the Dodgers also bring one of the league’s top bullpens into the matchup.
Pick: Phillies vs. Dodgers Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
7:20 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Jordan Wicks struggled badly in his season debut, allowing eight runs in 4⅓ innings, and his career numbers at the major league level remain concerning. Matthew Liberatore has also had difficulties this season with a 4.76 ERA while allowing 1.6 home runs per nine innings. With the more reliable starter and home-field advantage, St. Louis gets the nod in this matchup.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline -102
Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -122
