MLB Best Bets Today May 1
Fourteen night games and one day game make up the Friday schedule across Major League Baseball. It’ll be chilly for that early start with our lowest total on the board of 7. Many games are on the cooler side of things in the early part of the evening, but we have three games in California and another late tilt in Seattle where they can have the roof open if they’d like with a nice day in the PNW.
Seventeen of today’s starters are making their seventh starts of the season and three more are making their sixth starts, so 2026 stats are starting to reach a point of statistical significance to where some patterns are developing that we need to pay close attention to and we’re at the point for most guys where 2025 numbers have no bearing going forward.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for May 1:
Philadelphia Phillies (-120, 8) at Miami Marlins
7:10 p.m. ET
It has been said many times over that “momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitcher” in baseball. The Phillies are sending ace Zack Wheeler to the hill for his second start of the season, while the Marlins are sending out Eury Perez following yesterday’s off day. The Phillies are up against it a little bit today, as they arrived in Miami after 1:30 a.m. from having to play a doubleheader yesterday against the Giants.
Everybody in the bullpen pitched yesterday with the double dip, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing to me. Obviously nobody pitched on Wednesday with the rainout. Only two relievers worked on Tuesday and the Phillies had an off day on Monday. With the managerial change, I think some off days have helped with the transition and helped everybody reset and refocus.
This is a veteran team that got off to a horrible start and they’re hellbent on making up some ground. Wheeler’s return could help. He struck out six over five solid innings with two runs allowed on three hits against the Braves in his 2026 debut. The stuff looked pretty good, he had a big SwStr% of 16.7%, a 44% Chase Rate, and only allowed one Barrel with a 54.5% GB%. Those are all positives, even though his Zone% of 32.1% is a bit of a red flag. I’m sure there were a few nerves coming back from a major operation.
Perez has allowed four runs in four of his six starts this season and allowed three in another one. He has a 4.60 ERA with a 5.15 xERA and a 5.05 FIP over his 31.1 innings of work on the campaign, allowing 20 runs on 30 hits. He’s only allowed 16 earned runs, but has 14 walks and has given up six homers. He has allowed a 46% Hard Hit% and a 14.9% Barrel%, so the contact quality off of him has been extremely good by opposing offenses.
The Phillies are 3-0 under Don Mattingly, as it seems like they’ve gotten the fired coach bump. It’s always a case-by-case basis when these things happen, but a veteran team that has had success under Rob Thomson has to be shouldering the blame for his firing and that’s a motivating factor. It’s a much different dynamic than what’s happening in Boston, for example.
I’ll look up the Phillies here in the series lid lifter as they know they need to climb back up the standings and make up some ground.
Pick: Phillies -120
Chicago White Sox at San Diego Padres (-156, 8.5)
9:40 p.m. ET
Youngster Noah Schultz makes the fourth start of his MLB career and German Marquez makes his 206th career start here. Marquez has a 4.38 ERA with a 5.06 xERA and a 5.89 FIP over his 24.2 innings of work, as he’s allowed four runs in three starts and zero runs in the other two. There has been no rhyme or reason for the inconsistency, as two have been at home and one has been on the road. He’s struggled with the Giants, Rockies, and Diamondbacks, while shutting out the Pirates and Angels. So, who knows.
But, what I do know is that Schultz has looked very promising so far this season. The 6-foot-10 southpaw has racked up 18 strikeouts in his 15.1 innings of work. He’s only allowed six earned runs, just one homer, and just a 33.3% Hard Hit% with a 5.6% Barrel%. It’s been a really nice start to the season for him against the Rays, Athletics, and Nationals. Those teams rank 17th, 26th, and 3rd in wRC+ against lefties. The Padres are 27th in that split and are the only team in baseball that has not hit a home run off a lefty yet.
I think he’s a kid with a lot of upside. Any new lefty has a chance because they often have a lot of deception or some other things in their tool kit. He’s an interesting guy because he’s 6-foot-10, but ranks in the 26th percentile in Extension with a 21-degree arm angle, so he’s kind of coming from more of a sidearm angle than a three-quarter arm slot and he’s just limbs flying around everywhere. Those characteristics should continue to allow him to have success.
In that regard, I like Over 4.5 Strikeouts for Schultz. He’s gone from 4 to 6 to 8 in his three starts and from a 7.3% SwStr% to 9.8% to 11.8%. He seems to be getting more comfortable and adjusting to big league life. The Padres also have a 26.9% K% as a team over the last 14 days.
I also feel like the White Sox are worth a shot on the plus-money price tonight. Marquez only has 17 strikeouts out of 105 batters this season. He’s given up six homers and five at home, so there’s that as well. Despite all of the dominance for Mason Miller, the Padres have a 6.69 ERA over the last 14 days out of their bullpen. Chicago has a 3.48 ERA that ranks 11th. Worth a shot to be sure.
Pick: White Sox +129; Noah Schultz (CWS) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-106)
Cleveland Guardians (-115, 9.5) at Athletics
9:40 p.m. ET
A pretty simple player prop play here, as Joey Cantillo squares off against the Athletics. The A’s have a 24.8% K% against southpaws on the season. They also have just a 78 wRC+ in that split, so this should be a really good spot for Cantillo to not only rack up some punchies, but also have a good start for the Guardians.
His strikeout prop sits at 5.5 with pretty similar juice on both sides. He’s gone Over this number in three of his six starts, as he’s faced the Mariners, Cubs, Royals, Cardinals, Orioles, and Blue Jays. Those teams rank 15th, 13th, 20th, 5th, 22nd, and 1st in K% against LHP, ranging from lowest to highest, so the Blue Jays have the lowest and the Cardinals have the fifth-lowest. In that start against the Orioles, who rank 22nd with the same K% as the A’s against lefties, Cantillo struck out six in 4.2 innings and was not as effective as he usually is.
I think he’ll be able to generate lots of swings and misses tonight. The Hawaii native is finally getting to pitch in some nicer weather and he throws a high percentage of breaking balls that require good grip to be effective. He’s had a double-digit SwStr% in five of his six starts this season and I’d expect another one tonight with a higher Chase Rate than normal.
Pick: Joey Cantillo (CLE) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-118)
