MLB Best Bets Today July 4
Fireworks will be on display at most Major League ballparks because the slate is packed full of night games on the July 4 holiday. There are a few early starts where fireworks won’t be a thing, but the majority of the schedule is at night. It should be a good night of baseball once again, as it’s hot in most places, which should help the bats and make life tough on the pitchers.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 4:
Rays vs. Astros Prediction
Pick: Under 7 (-102)
A total of 7 doesn’t leave a lot of margin for error, but based on how they’ve been throwing the ball lately, Drew Rasmussen and Hunter Brown don’t need much. Rasmussen is actually in the midst of an incredible season and an incredible run. The Rays right-hander has a 2.45 ERA with a 2.99 xERA and a 2.99 FIP in his 92 innings of work across 16 starts. He’s struck out over a batter per inning with a pristine 4.5% BB%.
Adding to the appeal of Rasmussen is that he’s held righties to a .132/.170/.202 slash with a .169 wOBA on the season. He has a 39/3 K/BB ratio in that split. Lefties have done better, at least in a relative sense, with a .228/.276/.354 slash and a .279 wOBA. I can’t really recall seeing split numbers righty vs. righty better than that and the Astros are obviously a great lineup to have those against.
He’s also got a 2.36 ERA on the road with a .186/.213/.299 slash against and a .225 wOBA, allowing 12 earned runs over 45.2 innings of work. Normally we see TB pitchers do better at home because the Tropicana Field is a good park for pitchers, but Rasmussen’s been great everywhere.
Also, Rasmussen is on an obscene run in June, posting a 0.82 ERA with a 2.26 xERA and 1.78 FIP in five starts over 33 innings. He has a 39/4 K/BB ratio with just three runs allowed on 16 hits. He’s held opposing batters to a 31.1% Hard Hit% and a 2.7% Barrel%.
Brown is still working his way into rhythm after missing 2.5 months due to injury, but he’s close to what he usually is. He’s allowed four earned runs on 12 hits over 14.2 innings since coming back. He has a 15/7 K/BB ratio and the walks are something that should improve as he keeps getting stronger and stronger. He has allowed a 41% Hard Hit%, but just a 5.1% Barrel% thanks to a 51.3% GB%.
In his career, Brown has a 3.62 ERA against at home in 271.1 innings, but that’s misleading because he had a 6.56 ERA in 72.2 innings back in 2023. If we look just at his home numbers in the last three seasons, he has a 2.68 ERA at home in 32 games.
These are two top-10 bullpens by ERA over the last 30 days, with Houston second at 2.20 and Tampa Bay eighth at 3.35. It should be a really good showcase of pitching tonight.
Orioles vs. Reds Prediction
Pick: Orioles +109
Hunter Greene makes his 2026 debut for the Reds and there is clearly a lot of hype and excitement around his start, as the Reds are in a pretty big favorite role, at least for a team with their metrics, record, and standing. Greene was nearly flawless in three minor league starts, going 14.1 innings with no runs allowed on just five hits and two walks. He struck out 13 and actually went 6.1 innings in his last start because he only faced one batter over the minimum.
But, MLB hitters are a different beast and Greene may have some nerves, or at least a strong sense of wanting to go out there and be perfect to make up for the time that he lost. The Orioles do have an 11.1% BB% against RHP over the last 14 days, so if Greene is a bit erratic, they might be able to take advantage.
If nothing else, I’ll take the better lineup and the better bullpen in this game with Brandon Young on the hill for Baltimore. Young has only allowed more than three earned runs once in a start this season. Overall, he has a 3.11 ERA, 4.24 xERA, and 3.95 FIP. While the advanced metrics do show some regression signs, and it is possible with his below average K%, he’s only posted a 7.5% HR/FB% and keeping the ball in the park goes a long way these days. He has only surrendered a 6.6% Barrel% and just one Barrel in his last four starts, impressive considering he’s faced Seattle twice, the Dodgers, and Washington.
So, Young has at least a good chance to cancel out Greene to some degree, if not fully, which means I’ll have the better bullpen and the more promising lineup in the late innings at a plus-money price.
