MLB Best Bets Today June 27
A big day on the diamond got going early with the Yankees vs. Red Sox and Astros vs. Tigers matchups, but we’ve got plenty of action this evening to consider and analyze for the best bets of the day. It is an interesting day because we’ve got some pitchers having great seasons that aren’t exactly household names like Reid Detmers, Davis Martin, and Chase Burns on the bump.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for June 27:
Diamondbacks vs. Rays Prediction
Pick: Diamondbacks +119
Jose Cabrera will make his second MLB start as the Diamondbacks and Rays battle it out at The Trop. It will be a Johnny Wholestaff game for the Rays, as Cole Sulser will start it and Michael Grove, who hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2024, will probably play some role, as he’s thrown 12.2 innings in the minors, never going more than two innings.
Cabrera limited hitters to a 28.3% Hard Hit% and just one Barrel in 46 batted ball events in Triple-A and posted a 26.8% K% with a 6.7% BB% before getting the call up. Most of his work this season came in Double-A, but the Diamondbacks have liked what they’ve seen and moved him up the ranks quickly. He worked five shutout innings with three punchies and a hit batter in his debut against the Twins, allowing just an 86 mph average exit velo. He had a 16.1% SwStr% and got a lot of chases, so we’ll see if he can follow up that strong effort with another one.
As you know if you’ve read the column this week, I’m looking to back the D-Backs, as their incredible ineptitude with RISP should be regressing back towards the mean as we go along. Over the last seven days, Arizona is fifth in PA with RISP, but still only batting .175. This can’t continue forever.
Sulser has allowed 21 runs in his 31.2 innings of work with 27 relief efforts and one start as the opener. Grove had a 2.84 ERA in the minors, but has allowed four runs in his last three appearances covering just 4.2 innings of work. The Rays are in a pretty uncomfortable spot today with no starter to go to and some recent relief usage. Craig Kimbrel has worked back-to-back days, while Kevin Kelly and Garrett Cleavinger would be working for a third time in four days and on back-to-back days. There aren’t a lot of fresh arms out there.
Marlins vs. Cardinals Prediction
Pick: Cardinals -137
Andre Pallante has been really good for the Redbirds this season, posting a 3.59 ERA with a 3.77 xERA and a 4.10 FIP over his 82.2 innings of work. I got a little fortunate with the Fish yesterday, as they didn’t do anything against regression candidate Michael McGreevy, but did come away with a 4-0 win as Max Meyer was outstanding. It concerns me that they couldn’t hit McGreevy and Pallante is undoubtedly having a stronger season.
Of late, Pallante has been really good. He’s allowed just six runs over his last four starts and has a 58.6% GB%. In that span, he’s allowed just three Barrels and a 31.4% Hard Hit%. He throws from a very high arm slot for a 6-foot tall right-hander and gets so much downward tilt and really good spin that he’s a much better pitcher than I’ve ever really given him credit for. Most importantly, he’s only walked four of the last 95 batters that he has faced and control was always the main question with him.
Gusto is a guy I do like, but it’s been a struggle this season. He had a 3.83 ERA in the minors before getting called back up and has a 6.35 ERA with a 5.48 xERA and a 4.11 FIP in his 17 innings since. He’s given up quite a bit of loud contact with a 45.8% Hard Hit% and a 10.2% Barrel% in those four starts and one relief outing.
The Cardinals have a huge starting pitcher advantage in this one and probably the better offense as well, especially after Miami’s poor effort against McGreevy yesterday.
