Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, June 27, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 306-313 run (+15.72 units, ROI: 2.5%).
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-193 vs TEX)
Trend: CINCINNATI is 8-20 (28.6%, -12.81 units) in the last 28 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -45.8%
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-118 at PIT)
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 386-194 (66.6%) for +54.35 units and an ROI of 9.4%!
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-131 vs KC)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 135-108 for -3.93 units and an ROI of -1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-141 vs HOU), TORONTO (-193 vs TEX), NY METS (-132 vs PHI), SEATTLE (-149 at CLE), LA ANGELS (-114 vs ATH)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 24-23 for –7.53 units (ROI -16%).
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-118 at PIT), SAN FRANCISCO (-132 vs ATL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 42-75 for -35.95 units and an ROI of -30.7%!
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+119 at STL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to an 86-114 start for -1.46 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect, however, it has lost almost 11.29 units over the last two-and-a-half weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (+158 at TOR), COLORADO (+119 at MIN), ATHLETICS (-106 at LAA)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 39-21 for -7.70 units, ROI -12.8%.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-193 vs TEX)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 162-203 for -23.14 units. This ROI of -6.3% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect…YET
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-102 vs CIN), COLORADO (+119 at MIN), MIAMI (+119 at STL), SAN DIEGO (+168 vs LAD), ATLANTA (+109 at SF)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 135-88 for +30.35 units, an ROI of +13.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-123 at BOS), BALTIMORE (-117 vs WSH), LA ANGELS (-114 vs ATH)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 101-127 start for -21.65 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 44-60 for -16.12 units and an ROI of -15.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – BOSTON (+102 vs NYY), TEXAS (+158 at TOR), ATHLETICS (-106 at LAA)
3+ games – PHILADELPHIA (+109 at NYM)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 78-81 for +8.00 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+109 at CWS), WASHINGTON (-103 at BAL), ST LOUIS (-143 vs MIA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2125-2008 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -267.22 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, MINNESOTA, ATHLETICS
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2153-2727 (44.1%) for -269.94 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, WASHINGTON, ARIZONA, NY YANKEES, PHILADELPHIA, KANSAS CITY, CHICAGO CUBS, LA DODGERS
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 386-194 (66.6%) for +54.35 units and an ROI of 9.4%!
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-131 vs KC)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 195-232 SU record for +38.87 units and an ROI of 9.1% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+109 at CWS)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 76-151 skid (-43.60 units, ROI: -19.2%).
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 19-24 (+7.91 units, ROI: 18.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 100-185 (-65.80 units, ROI: -23.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 42-79 in their last 121 tries (-21.61 units, ROI: -17.9%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
Systems Match (FADE): NY METS (-132 vs PHI)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 306-313 run (+15.72 units, ROI: 2.5%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TORONTO (-193 vs TEX)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 165-165 (-68.44 units, ROI: -20.7%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-163 vs CHC)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: HOUSTON +117 (+15 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MINNESOTA -144 (+43 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX -131 (+33), MILWAUKEE -163 (+22), LA ANGELS -114 (+22), NY YANKEES -123 (+21)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: CHC-MIL OVER 8 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: PHI-NYM UNDER 9 (-0.9), ATL-SF UNDER 8 (-0.7), HOU-DET UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), LAD-SD UNDER 8 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) CINCINNATI (38-42) at (952) PITTSBURGH (41-41)
Trend: Under the total is 3-0 when CIN faces PIT with starter Chase Burns in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-PIT (o/u at 8)
(955) CHICAGO-NL (44-38) at (956) MILWAUKEE (50-29)
Trend: MIL is 17-7 (+11.56 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 vs CHC)
(957) MIAMI (43-39) at (958) ST LOUIS (42-37)
Trend: Over the total is 22-11-3 (+9.90 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-STL (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: STL is 28-19 (+11.25 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-143 vs MIA)
(961) ATLANTA (49-31) at (962) SAN FRANCISCO (33-48)
Trend: Under the total is 7-2 when Logan Webb faces ATL in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-SF (o/u at 8)
(963) NEW YORK-AL (48-33) at (964) BOSTON (34-46)
Trend: Over the total is 14-6 when starter Gerrit Cole faces BOS in his career
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYY-BOS (o/u at 8)
(967) TEXAS (40-42) at (968) TORONTO (39-43)
Trend: TEX is 18-27 (-13.11 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+1.5 at TOR)
(969) KANSAS CITY (34-49) at (970) CHICAGO-AL (42-38)
Trend: Michael Wacha’s teams have a 9-3 record when he starts against CWS in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+109 at CWS)
Trend: Under the total is 22-15-1 (+5.50 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-CWS (o/u at 8)
Trend: CWS is 27-13 (+16.49 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-131 vs KC)
(973) ATHLETICS (40-42) at (974) LOS ANGELES-AL (34-49)
Trend: Under the total is 24-16-1 (+6.40 units) in ATH road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-LAA (o/u at 8.5)
(975) ARIZONA (41-40) at (976) TAMPA BAY (46-33)
Trend: AZ is 12-22 (-6.96 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+119 at TB)
(977) WASHINGTON (41-42) at (978) BALTIMORE (39-44)
Trend: Over the total is 30-13-1 (+15.70 units) in WSH night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-BAL (o/u at 9)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee, Fri 6/26-Sun 6/28
Trend: Over the total is 16-8-1 (66.7%, +7.25 units) in the last 25 games of the CHC-MIL series at Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 29%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-MIL (o/u at 8)
Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Fri 6/26-Sun 6/28
Trend: CINCINNATI is 8-20 (28.6%, -12.81 units) in the last 28 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -45.8%
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-118 at PIT)
Series #20: Washington at Baltimore, Fri 6/26-Sun 6/28
Trend: Under the total is 19-4-1 (82.6%, +14.65 units) in the last 24 games between Washington and Baltimore
– The ROI on this trend is 61%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-BAL (o/u at 9)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): HOUSTON, WASHINGTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA, WASHINGTON, MINNESOTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, ST LOUIS, LA ANGELS
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, June 29)
