MLB Best Bets Today July 1
It will be a full day of baseball with lots of getaway day action and a handful of night games as well. It is very hot and steamy across most of the country, which should help the flight of the baseball, especially with the day games, so keep that in mind as you are handicapping over the next few days.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 1:
Rays vs. Royals Prediction
Pick: Shane McClanahan (TB) Over 1.5 Walks (+108)
A total of 10.5 is on tap for the Rays and Royals on a hot night in KC. Shane McClanahan gets the call here for the Rays and I was looking for a creative way to try and go against him in this one and I think I found it. McClanahan has posted Chase Rates under 20% in each of his last two starts and this start being on the road adds a pretty compromising factor.
So far this season, McClanahan has been worse on the road and a lot of it has to do with his control. Opposing hitters own a .331 OBP off of Mac on the road compared to a .257 at home. A big reason why is because his BB% spikes to 10.8% away from the climate-controlled conditions of Tropicana Field.
On a hot and humid night, where the baseball can feel like a cue ball, I think what I presume to be grip issues could absolutely pop up. The Royals are a pretty aggressive lineup that doesn’t walk a ton and I think that is why we’re getting this at a plus-money price. McClanahan has gone Over this total in five of his eight road starts, but one where he didn’t was at Rogers Centre in Toronto, another dome.
Reds vs. Brewers Prediction
Pick: Under 9 (-114)
Andrew Abbott and Shane Drohan are the listed hurlers here for this NL Central rivalry matchup. While most of the country is hot, the A/C should be on at American Family Field here. Abbott has some concerning peripherals with a FIP over 5 and an xERA nearly a run higher than his actual ERA, but most of that has to do with his K/BB ratio and 15 homers allowed. Obviously those aren’t good things, but he hasn’t given up a lot of hits otherwise and ranks above average in Barrel% and Hard Hit%.
Abbott has consistently gotten more swings and misses and more chases outside the zone here of late, so those are two positive signs for him as he looks to right the ship a bit. He has a 12% SwStr% over his last seven starts and a 32.7% O-Swing%. That helps him induce weaker contact and he should start trending more in that direction, as his contact authority numbers have seen a slight uptick recently.
Drohan danced around five hits and three walks to go 4.1 scoreless innings against the Reds last time out. Normally it’s tough to face a team for the second straight time, but Drohan is heading back home, where most Brewers pitchers are very solid, and this is one of the smartest organizations in baseball, so they’ll surely make some adjustments. Drohan’s high spin rates made him very attractive to the Brewers and have helped him to just a 35.8% Hard Hit%.
Drohan isn’t working terribly deep into games right now, though, as he only recently transitioned to being a full-time starter. That should get the specialists and hard-throwers into the game in the middle innings and that usually leads to some run suppression as teams get fewer plate appearances against the starter the third time through the order.
I’ll also fade the Reds offense, which has been a bottom-five unit over the last 14 days and give Abbott the benefit of the doubt against a Brewers offense that ranks just 21st in wOBA against LHP on the season.
