Today we kick off the month of July with a loaded 14 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:15 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (-135, 9)
The Cardinals (44-38) won last night’s series opener 5-3, hanging on as +125 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Cardinals hand the ball to righty Michael McGreevy (3-6, 3.12 ERA) and the Braves (49-34) turn to fellow righty Reynaldo Lopez (3-1, 3.47 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -125 home favorite and St. Louis a +105 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Braves to bounce back with a win at home, driving Atlanta up from -125 to -135.
At DraftKings, the Braves are taking in 75% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Braves are receiving 50% of moneyline bets and 58% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
Home favorites priced -140 or less receiving line movement in their favor, like the Braves here, are 140-101 (58%) with a 4% ROI this season.
Home favorites priced -140 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season are 102-63 (62%) with a 12% ROI this season.
The Braves are 20-13 (61%) with a 9% ROI off a loss this season, the 7th most profitable bounce back team in MLB.
The Cardinals are 1-6 in McGreevy’s last seven starts. He has posted a 4.36 ERA on the road compared to 1.96 at home.
Atlanta has the better bullpen as well, sporting a team ERA of 2.76 (1st in MLB) compared to 4.37 for St. Louis (20th).
The Braves are 24-15 (62%) at home, the 6th best home record in MLB.
8:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros (-135, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Twins (41-46) won the opener 5-4, cashing as +115 road dogs. Then the Astros (43-45) bounced back with a 6-4 win yesterday, coming through as a -110 home pick’em.
In tonight’s series finale, the Twins send out righty Taj Bradley (6-3, 3.98 ERA) and the Astros tap fellow righty Tatsuya Imai (5-3, 5.36 ERA).
This line opened with Houston listed as a -120 home favorite and Minnesota a +100 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Astros to earn a victory and take the series, steaming Houston up from -120 to -135.
We’ve also seen smart money back the Astros on the run-line (-1.5 at +155), as Houston is receiving only 41% of spread bets but 74% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the home favorite priced -140 or less has gone 68-44 (61%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Home favorites priced -140 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season are 102-63 (62%) with a 12% ROI this season.
Houston is 4-0 in Imai’s last four starts.
Meanwhile, Bradley posted a 5.53 ERA in five June starts, giving up 17 earned runs in 27.2 innings pitched. He has posted a 5.08 ERA in night games compared to 3.02 during the day.
8:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (-160, 9)
The Brewers (52-31) have won the first two games of this four-game series, taking the opener 5-3 as -140 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 7-2 as -170 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Reds (39-45) tap lefty Andrew Abbott (5-4, 3.90 ERA) and the Brewers go with fellow southpaw Shane Drohan (3-2, 3.12 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -155 home favorite and Cincinnati a +135 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Brewers to stay hot at home, pushing Milwaukee up from -155 to -160 and even -165 at some shops.
At DraftKings, the Brewers are taking in 86% of moneyline bets and a whopping 96% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in their favor.
Milwaukee has the better bats, hitting .255 with 430 runs scored compared to the Reds hitting .227 with 355 runs scored.
Drohan has posted a 2.48 ERA in night games compared to 3.91 during the day.
Meanwhile, Abbott has posted a 4.15 ERA at night compared to 3.66 during the day.
The Brewers have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.64 (7th) compared to 4.87 for the Reds (25th).
Milwaukee is 28-17 (62%) at home, 5th best home record in MLB. Cincinnati is 20-23 on the road.
The Brewers are 5-0 against the Reds this season.
