2026 World Cup Group Stage Best Bets:
Kicks off Saturday, 03:00 p.m. ET
The wait is finally over — the 2026 FIFA World Cup is here! A 39-day feast of soccer will see a record-breaking 104 fixtures played in 16 stadiums across the United States, Canada and Mexico.
Since 1998, 32 teams have competed in the finals, but this year sees an expansion to 48 nations split into 12 groups of four. More games, more value, more betting opportunities. Here, you will see my best bets from the opening stage.
Group A – Mexico, South Korea, Czechia, South Africa
Group A looks more open to me than the odds suggest. Co-host Mexico are rightful favorites to win the group; their home advantage is amplified with their games played at high altitude, but the race for the remaining qualification spots is wide open.
The expanded 48-team format allows eight of the best third-place teams to advance. Therefore, South Africa doesn’t necessarily need a top two finish to cash a qualification ticket, and as outsiders, I like their price of +120 to do that.
Belgian coach Hugo Broos has done a great job in molding his squad into a disciplined and organized unit. Guiding them to the top spot in qualifying ahead of Nigeria was a major surprise, even more so after suffering a three-point penalty for fielding an ineligible player.
Playing the Mexicans in the tournament opener on Saturday may not be the worst situation, with hosts often producing nervy performances in their first game. If South Africa can take any points from that fixture, it will put them in a strong position, whilst adding pressure to both South Korea and Czechia.
None of these four are in the bracket of major soccer nations, so siding with the outsiders to spring another shock is a value play. The coach himself said, although it won’t be easy, there are no huge favorites, and for South African soccer, it is an opportunity to make history. Let us hope he is right.
Pick: Group A – South Africa to qualify from the Group Stage +120.
Group B – Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia, Qatar
Switzerland are -125 favorites to win Group B, which looks a fair price for a nation with by far more experience than Canada, Bosnia and Qatar. This will be their 13th World Cup, while the other trio only combine for a total of seven appearances.
The Swiss cruised through qualification, unbeaten in six fixtures, scoring 14 goals and conceding just twice. They have reached the knockout stages in each of their last six major international tournaments, and they will do so again by topping the group.
However, by adding the co-hosts to chase them home, we get a massive boost in price to +200. Former NYRB, Leipzig and Leeds manager Jesse Marsch is the man in charge and has made his team tough to beat, coming into the tournament with only one defeat in 90 minutes across their last 17 internationals.
The Canadians have developed into a dangerous transition team with the athleticism and pace to trouble almost anyone. Against lower-ranked opposition, they have the firepower to create plenty of scoring chances and a striker in Juventus’ Jonathan David to finish them.
Canada’s growing experience on the international stage should help them deal with the high-pressure nature of playing in front of an expectant home support. Bosnia qualified via the play-offs and relying on penalty shootouts to squeeze past both Italy and Wales, while Qatar lost all three games as hosts at the last tournament.
With the experienced Julen Lopetegui, the coach of Qatar, I actually fancy them to finish ahead of Bosnia, so I will include that outcome as a second selection from Group B.
Pick: Group B – Switzerland/Canada Exact Finishing Order (1st & 2nd placed) at +200.
Pick: Group B – Bosnia to finish bottom at +300
Group D – Turkey, Paraguay, Australia, USA
Ok everyone, it’s time to bet with your heads and not your hearts. Spoiler alert, I’m fading the USMNT here, in as much as I am taking Turkey to top Group D.
Let me deal with the United States first before coming on to why I think they won’t justify favoritism and win the section. Mauricio Pochettino has a fine reputation and plenty of experience as a coach at club level but is still relatively raw on the international scene.
Home advantage will certainly help, and I do think USA will at least match their performance when they previously hosted the tournament by reaching the round of 16. There is plenty of firepower with the likes of Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun but look defensively weak, especially in goal.
Turkey has the tools to take full advantage of those weaknesses, and if the final match in the group becomes a winner-takes-all shootout, I must side with the Europeans. They ran Spain close in qualifying, trailing the tournament favorites by only three points, and hit 17 goals via 12 different players.
Italian manager Vincenzo Montella has brought balance to a team that was often inconsistent and can follow up a quarterfinal finish at the 2024 Euros with a similar performance here. Captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu of Inter Milan offers experience and superb technical ability, with real exciting young talent like Kenan Yildiz of Juventus and Real Madrid’s Arda Güler able to turn matches with individual moments of brilliance.
The incentive of a favorable route to go deep in the tournament and staying on the west coast as group winners should be enough to bring the best out of a side with better man-for-man quality.
Pick: Group D – Turkey to win the group at +175.
Group F – Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia
Group F looks like one of the most competitive sections with cases able to be made to varying degrees for all four nations. Netherlands are the favorites and understandably so, but I really like the look of Japan to spring something of a surprise and take top spot at what looks big value.
Ronald Koeman took his side to the semi-finals of Euro 2024 and will be confident of carrying on a fantastic World Cup record. With the Dutch winning 14 of their last 19 games in the tournament, losing in 90 minutes just once in that time.
The Netherlands possess plenty of talent and is likely to attract a high percentage of tickets based on reputation alone. However, tournament soccer often rewards cohesion and efficiency over star power, two areas where Japan excels.
Hajime Moriyasu’s men also boast an impressive array of attacking talent. They were top scorers in Asian qualifying and became the first nation to book their place at this summer’s showpiece event.
Friendly victories over Scotland, England and Brazil in the last 12 months has not only continued momentum but grown confidence this generation could be the first to reach the final eight. Topping the group will make that goal very achievable, while finishing as runners-up would likely mean a much tougher assignment with Brazil awaiting in the round of 32.
Sweden finished winless and bottom of their qualification group but made the World Cup via the Nations League and are in the early days under Graham Potter, formerly of Brighton and Chelsea. Enough reasons to discount their chances of challenging the top two.
Tunisia was undefeated in qualifying, winning nine of ten fixtures without conceding a goal. However, despite participating in this tournament on six previous occasions, they are yet to make it beyond the group stage, and I am expecting that run to continue.
All of which leaves Japan as the value pick to win the group.
Pick: Group F – Japan to win the group at +300.
Group L – England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana
I end my group best bets with the 12th section, and the one which contains my own nation. This will see me attend my 9th major tournament and really hope I finally get to see the Three Lions lift a trophy.
However, my bet is not on England or indeed on who will be progressing but rather the team that definitely won’t be. I am taking Ghana to be catching an early flight home after finishing at the bottom of Group L.
England enters the tournament as the clear favorite, boasting one of the deepest and most talented squads in the field. Croatia, meanwhile, continues to punch above its weight on the international stage thanks to its technical quality and tournament experience.
Panama is the key team in this market with their disciplined defensive approach and willingness to play direct, physical soccer, seeing them rise to 33rd in the FIFA rankings. In a matchup against Ghana, Panama’s organization could prove decisive.
The absence of Premier League Tottenham’s Mohammed Kudus is a massive blow for Ghana. While the fact Jordan Ayew has just been relegated to the third tier in England but was his country’s top scorer and assister in qualifying should ring alarm bells.
Otto Addo was sacked just 72 days before the World Cup kicks off, with the experienced Carlos Queiroz appointed, but I’m not sure his style will get the best out of this team. A run of five defeats and a tie is hardly inspiring form to head into a tournament and is enough for me to have Ghana finishing bottom of Group L.
Pick: Group L – Ghana to finish bottom at +225.
