MLB Best Bets Today August 19
It will be an imbalanced MLB schedule today, as there are four early games, a midday matinee in Boston, and then a bunch of late games across the 15-game slate. There aren’t as many competitively lined games today as we’ve seen in the early part of the week, but for those who don’t want to lay chalk or roll the dice on dogs, there are always plenty of prop bets available to get some action going and find some smart, sensible wagers. Consider that while looking at my best bets for today.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 19:
Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction
Pick: Yankees 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+100)
Chris Bassitt makes his second start since returning from the IL today and draws the Yankees, who do enter this game as the worst offense against RHP in the second half by a pretty wide margin. But, I think this is a better matchup for them than most and a chance to give Will Warren some run support, which he might really need.
Bassitt just came back after missing more than three months and allowed two runs on five hits over 5.1 innings to the Rays with three strikeouts and three walks. He only gave up two runs, but had a 5.22 xERA and a 5.35 xFIP in that start, as he only had a 2.3% SwStr%. The Yankees have had problems with batted balls in the second half, posting just a .239 BABIP in this split, but the biggest issue has been their 27.5% K%. That is easily the highest in the second half against RHP.
But, Bassitt is not a strikeout guy nor a swing and miss guy. This season, he only has a 14% K% with an 8.8% BB%. Instead of pitching at pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field, he’s back at home on an 84-degree night with a slight breeze helping out to left field. Lefties own a .327/.406/.520 slash with a .400 wOBA against him in 175 PA this season and the Yankees should have seven in the lineup against him.
Nationals vs. Rangers Prediction
Pick: Nationals +120
A couple of 2022 first-round picks square off here, as Cade Cavalli, who was taken 22nd overall by the Nationals, faces off against Kumar Rocker, the No. 3 pick by the Rangers. Cavalli is having the better season, posting a 3.36 ERA with a 3.94 xERA and a 3.46 FIP. It should probably be noted that he’s allowed 11 unearned runs on the season, but he also has 151 strikeouts against just 41 walks.
On the whole, Cavalli has been solid, especially after he missed all of 2023, a large chunk of 2024, and only threw 48.2 innings at the MLB level in 2025. While he has allowed 15 HR this season, he’s only allowed a 7.2% Barrel%. He’s also getting better as the season goes along. His second half ERA is just 2.13 over 38 innings of work, as he’s held opposing batters to a .206 BA. He has allowed seven HR after allowing just eight in 98.2 first half innings, but he didn’t allow one last time out with just one hit surrendered to the Cubs over eight innings. He’s struck out 18 batters in his last 14 innings, including 10 last time out.
Globe Life Field isn’t a great hitter’s park. It suppresses power for one reason or another, so this should be a good venue for Cavalli, even with the recent HR barrage. The other thing is that he’s allowed six homers in his last four starts, but 11 of his 15 HR allowed have been solo shots. Because he doesn’t walk many guys or give up a lot of hits, the homers are of the one-run variety and that worries me less.
Rocker has a 4.50 ERA with a 4.62 xERA and a 4.37 FIP over 116 innings this season. He does not have a K per inning like Cavalli does and has allowed 16 HR in fewer frames. Rocker hasn’t been bad, per se, but he got off to a really fortunate start in April and May when he had major control issues, but happened to pitch around them. Since the middle of June, he has a 5.72 ERA with a 4.77 FIP over his last nine starts. He’s found more strikeouts, but has also continued to walk too many batters.
Offensively, these are two very different teams. The Nationals are fifth in wOBA at .336 in the second half against righties with a .258/.336/.433 slash, while the Rangers are 26th in wOBA at .297 with a .233/.293/.382 slash. Lefties have peppered Rocker this season to the tune of a .291/.366/.492 slash with a .372 wOBA, which is a good sign for the six or seven lefties in the order.
The Nationals offense has cooled considerably with James Wood out, but the Rangers are the worst offense in MLB against RHP since Wood went out, so Washington still has an advantage.
Angels vs. Astros Prediction
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105)
Ethan Pecko will make his MLB debut for Houston today and the Angels will counter with the effectively wild Walbert Urena as this AL West series continues at what used to be lovingly referred to as The Juice Box. Pecko is a really fascinating righty out of Towson whose 4.94 ERA and 4.68 xERA from Triple-A may provide some betting value in the early going.
Pitching in the PCL is very hard. Pecko also only worked 74.2 innings over 15 starts and two relief appearances, so his 71/28 K/BB ratio won’t be viewed all that favorably by some of the advanced metrics because it’s under a K per inning and a bit of a heightened walk rate. However, there are five teams in the PCL averaging over six runs per game and the league average is 5.86 R/G. It is a miserable place to pitch. It’s August 19 and El Paso has a team ERA of 7.00. Salt Lake is at 6.98. There are so many good hitter’s parks in this league between elevation and heat that it’s really rough to be a hurler. As a result, pitchers nibble and that leads to heightened BB%.
FanGraphs had Pecko listed as Houston’s fourth-best prospect entering the season and he’ll have the chance to live up to that with a really good first assignment. The Angels are a bad offensive team in just about every facet. They are 29th in wOBA in the second half against RHP and have a 25.9% K%. That should help Pecko, who has a lot of swing and miss. Also, as noted by James Fegan, Pecko’s fastball shape avoids the swing plane of most lefties, so platoon splits haven’t been an issue yet. That’s usually something young pitchers have to deal with, but not Pecko.
Urena is an adventure, as he has a 2.67 ERA with a 3.28 xERA and a 3.72 FIP over 107.2 innings of work. He’s struck out 102 and walked 57 over 459 batters faced, so nearly 35% of his plate appearances end in a K or a BB. The Astros don’t really walk or strike out a lot and Urena has held the opposition to a .198 BA with a lot of deep counts and weak contact. Opponents have just a 33.6% Hard Hit% and a 4.8% Barrel% against him.
The thing I really like about Urena here is that he’s allowed a .189/.288/.259 slash with a .257 wOBA to right-handed batters. It’s not like lefties have crushed him either, with just three HR in 247 PA. They have walked at a higher rate, but walking Yordan Alvarez is hardly a problem.
With two bullpens full of available high-leverage arms, I’m looking for a low-scoring affair tonight.
