Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Wednesday, August 19 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 8.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Not Tapping (8th race)
Eighth Race
1. Not Tapping
2. Paula’s Choice
3. Two Clicks
NOT TAPPING had trouble at the start, then could not get clear in the stretch in the turf and route debut two starts back; broke from the far outside post and could not get over when suffering a wide trip in that last one; rates one more chance as she moves to a better post. PAULA’S CHOICE faced better in her debut here just over two weeks ago, and she still looked green in that race while splitting the field; drops while adding Lasix and blinkers for an excellent barn. TWO CLICKS ran well without the lead two back; got hung wide and had to send up to the lead with an early move in that last one, and she was clearly tired in the stretch of that race; needs a better trip.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other seven races on Saturday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Street View
2. Snide
3. Save Us Melania
STREET VIEW did not run well under conditions similar to this off the layoff last time. Notably, she was claimed out of that race by a high-percentage trainer, and one for whom this mare has had success in the past; expecting an improved effort. SNIDE was in good form earlier this year while being kept to route distances; has been freshened up since just missing to in-form stablemate Mursal (has won three more times since then) when last seen in May; slight turnback should not be an issue. SAVE US MELANIA’s excellent form for Linda Rice came last year, and a return to that kind of form would make her tough in here; she was facing better horses when she returned for two starts over the winter, though things did not appear to be going well for her at that time, and she went right back to the sidelines; dangerous if ready.
Second Race
1. Pronghorn
2. Concurrently
3. Midtown Lights
PRONGHORN appeared to drag her rider into position before proving to be easily best two back at Oaklawn; returned to run an even better race in her next start when just missing in a stakes race; looks well-spotted for her first start after being freshened up by Asmussen. CONCURRENTLY has taken steps forward with each start to date; she was never winning the Demoiselle right off the maiden win late last year; parlayed a good trip into a clear-cut win off the bench before shipping up here; can easily improve again. MIDTOWN LIGHTS goes for a cold barn, and she has done most of her damage against fellow NY-breds, but she likes this distance and will be a price. BALLERINA D’ORO has more talent than anyone in this field, though she also has a right to need one as she makes her first start since a difficult trip in last year’s Kentucky Oaks.
Third Race
1. Pinky Brier
2. Celestial Body
3. Huck’s Agenda
PINKY BRIER never got involved in a stakes race here during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival; she wheeled back two weeks later to run poorly again and was given some time off; can be inconsistent, but she owns a top effort that makes her a contender in here at a fair price, and she is fast enough to get forward in a race featuring a murky pace scenario. CELESTIAL BODY just got nailed late in her 3yo debut early this year; returned to win her next start in slow time, though that was going longer over a wet track; she improved off the layoff last time when only second-best, but she also had speed, and she holds more upside than most in this field. HUCK’S AGENDA is a new face to this group dropping down in class; lack of speed is the main concern.
Fourth Race
1. Gardiner
2. Treaty Obligation
3. Runaway Joke
GARDINER ran well twice here last summer when shipped up off two good races at Churchill; will repeat that pattern as a 4yo following a convincing win when given some class relief and running away from pace pressure late at the end of June. TREATY OBLIGATION has plenty of back races that make him tough in here, though he has not Beyered out of the 80s in his last seven starts, and has only done so once since being claimed out of a win here last summer – that when wheeled back on short rest to make his first start for these connections; turf to dirt and turning back looking to get back to his best. RUNAWAY JOKE made it seven wins in a row when wiring a field with a 92 Beyer on his first start back from a layoff last June – though only one of those wins came on this circuit; he only managed four starts in total as a 4yo, and his return from the layoff this year left something to be desired; drops down needing his best.
Fifth Race
1. Engraved
2. Story of Rory
3. Hot Off the Beach
ENGRAVED sold for $200k last April after a 10-flat breeze, but showed no works after that and didn’t race at two. He has been breezing right along since the end of June for a red-hot barn, and he is bred for this – the dam went 3 for 4 on turf in her career, and her two winning foals were both turf horses (one debut winner). STORY OF RORY gave it up in the stretch after showing speed in his debut here as a 2yo; took a tough beat when back on grass two back, as he likely never saw the winner rallying down the outside late to tag him on the wire; was only second-best to a front-running winner last time; switches into a very good barn to try one more time. HOT OFF THE BEACH made his debut back in May for a $50k tag and was only second-best, but he might not need to improve at all off that 77 Beyer effort to contend in this spot; steps up into a race that didn’t come up that strong for the level.
Sixth Race
1. Solo Jim
2. Big Gain
3. Discotheque
SOLO JIM’s two wins have come over wet tracks, though he ran fine over fast dirt two back when just missing to an odds-on favorite going a mile; might have run even better than it looks in that last one as he was continuously moving forward into a strongly run race, and just kept going through the stretch; will find out a bit more about him here, but he will be a good price once again. BIG GAIN has improved since the claim here last August, despite settling for second in three of his five starts for the new connections; turning back again to the distance over which he earned a field-best 90 Beyer two starts back. DISCOTHEQUE took 18 tries to break his maiden, but he accomplished that feat over this course and distance, then came right back nine days later and improved again; going good now.
Seventh Race
1. Combat Move
2. She’s Country
3. Celtic Dawn
COMBAT MOVE took advantage of an advantageous pace setup when finishing well for second in her off-turf debut early in the meet; was entered for turf again last week, and she was much more clued-in from the start that day while keeping the pace within range, and she still fired a good one to close that field down easily in the late stages; bred for turf, and Linda Rice has excellent numbers when wheeling horses back quickly like this. SHE’S COUNTRY looked good winning her debut over this turf course last August, then tried an open stakes race in her next start to no avail; sat a perfect trip and was narrowly best in the Key Cents before the layoff; just has to be ready. CELTIC DAWN ran very well, winning her first two starts on dirt – including the debut that was scheduled for turf here as a 2yo; looked quite good handling the grass two back, but that was sprinting, and she was disappointing when stretched out for that last one; dangerous if she can rebound.
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