MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, April 17.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
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12:10 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins
Eduardo Rodriguez gets the start for the Diamondbacks with a 4.86 ERA, but a much stronger 3.26 fielding independent and 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Marlins starter Edward Cabrera makes his second start of the season after allowing two runs in 5 2/3 innings in his 2025 debut. For his career, Cabrera owns a 3.90 ERA at home compared to a 4.70 ERA on the road.
Picks: Marlins Moneyline +140 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Marlins +131, Total 8.3)
12:40 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starter Brady Singer has a 3.18 ERA through his first three starts with Cincinnati, with promising advanced numbers—a 2.73 fielding independent and just one home run allowed in 17 innings. Mariners starter Bryan Woo has posted a 2.89 ERA since the start of the 2024 season, but with a 3.36 FIP and a declining strikeout rate (7.6 K/9). Both teams have struggled to score this year: Seattle ranks 22nd with just over 3.8 runs per game, while Cincinnati is tied for 17th with a little over 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +112 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -134)
2:10 PM Eastern
Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
White Sox starter Davis Martin has pitched to a lot of contact this season, opening with a 4.24 ERA and a 4.61 FIP, along with just 5.8 strikeouts per nine. A’s starter JP Sears holds a 4.48 ERA since joining Oakland, allowing 1.6 home runs per nine innings. Behind Sears is an A’s lineup that leads the American League in runs per game on the road, averaging 5.5.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.4)
6:40 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Michael Lorenzen posted a 3.31 ERA in 2024 despite a 4.89 FIP, 6.7 strikeouts, and 4.1 walks per nine innings. In 2025, his ERA sits at 3.71. Tigers starter Reese Olson has a 6.00 ERA despite allowing just one home run in 15 innings across three starts, with his 3.95 FIP suggesting positive regression. Detroit ranks 8th in runs per game with over 4.7, while Kansas City is 29th, scoring just over three per game.
Picks: Tigers -130 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -148, Total 8.2)
6:45 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles
Guardians starter Tanner Bibee has had a rough start to 2025 with a 4.40 ERA and a 6.93 FIP through three starts, but he thrived on the road in 2024—posting a 2.76 ERA away from home compared to 4.15 at home. Cleveland also owns the lowest bullpen ERA in baseball since the start of 2024. Orioles starter Tomoyuki Sugano, after a strong run in Japan’s NPB, has allowed just six runs in his first two MLB starts, though he’s striking out only 3.2 per nine innings as his pitch-to-contact approach carries over.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.1)
8:05 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Rangers starter Kumar Rocker has struggled so far, allowing 10 runs in 11 1/3 innings, but his minor league history includes a dominant 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings across two seasons. Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz owns a 5.74 ERA, primarily due to a lack of swing-and-miss stuff—just 3.8 strikeouts per nine innings in his MLB career. However, the Rangers lineup he faces entered Wednesday 28th in scoring, averaging just over 3.2 runs per game.
Pick: Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.8)
