MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, April 9.
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12:35 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller is a completely different pitcher at home than away. He’s posted a 5.14 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine innings on the road, compared to a 4.15 ERA and 0.9 home runs per nine innings in Pittsburgh. The offense behind him hasn’t helped much either, entering Tuesday averaging just over 3.6 runs per game after ranking 24th in runs per game last season.
Erick Fedde gets the start for St. Louis. He started the season strong, allowing one run in six innings against the Twins, but got roughed up in his last outing, giving up six runs to the Red Sox. Since returning from the KBO, his numbers have improved, dropping from 1.5 home runs and 3.8 walks per nine innings allowed prior to 2024 to 1.1 home runs and 2.7 walks since his stint overseas.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Pirates Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.6)
1:10 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Miami’s Max Meyer has allowed at least three runs in nine of his past ten starts dating back to 2024. He owns a career 5.42 ERA and 5.44 FIP. On the other side, Tylor Megill is off to a hot start, giving up just one run total in his first two outings. However, control remains an issue—he’s walking 3.5 batters per nine this season, in line with his career 3.4 BB/9 and 4.34 FIP.
Pick: Marlins vs. Mets Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.3)
3:40 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks lead the league in runs per game since the start of 2024 and should get some positive regression from starter Brandon Pfaadt. Despite a 4.74 ERA, he’s got a 3.76 FIP and a strong 4.51 strikeout-to-walk ratio since the start of 2024.
Orioles starter Dean Kremer owns a 4.26 ERA since the beginning of last season, with 1.2 home runs and 3.4 walks allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -120 (Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -146)
6:45 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers
The Yankees offense is still averaging 7.1 runs and 2.3 home runs per game—even after getting shut out yesterday. They’ll look to get to Tigers starter Jack Flaherty, who has a 4.36 ERA across 17 starts for the Dodgers and Tigers, with over 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Max Fried starts for the Yankees. While his ERA sits at 2.61 through two starts, that’s a bit misleading—four of the runs he’s allowed have been unearned. His FIP is 3.84.
Pick: Yankees vs. Tigers Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.8)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Tanner Houck has consistently pitched better on the road than at Fenway, with a lifetime 3.99 ERA at home (0.7 HR/9) versus a 3.24 road ERA (0.8 HR/9). Kevin Gausman’s strikeouts have dipped—down to 7.8 K/9 since the 2024 season began after five straight years of 10+ K/9. He’s held a 3.84 ERA in that span.
Picks: Red Sox -122 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -142 and Total 9.1)
7:15 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Taijuan Walker looked sharp in his season debut—six scoreless innings at home vs. Colorado—but he was one of the league’s worst starters in 2024, finishing with a 7.10 ERA and 6.94 FIP while giving up 2.6 HR/9 across 19 appearances.
Grant Holmes starts for Atlanta. Since the beginning of 2024, he’s posted a 3.80 ERA with a 3.39 FIP, along with 9.2 strikeouts and just 2.3 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -120 (Greg’s Handicap: Braves -147)
7:40 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Joe Ryan has struggled with the long ball on the road throughout his career, holding a 4.09 road ERA with over 1.6 HR/9. Seth Lugo, meanwhile, is coming off a 2024 season where he allowed just 0.7 HR/9, but he’d allowed at least 1.2 HR/9 in each of the four prior seasons. He’s also pitching to contact early this year—just six strikeouts in 11 innings across two starts.
Pick: Twins vs. Royals Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.7)
8:40 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies
Antonio Senzatela’s season has started bizarrely: 19 hits allowed across 9.2 innings, yet only one (unearned) run scored—clearly unsustainable. Backing him up is the league’s worst bullpen ERA entering Tuesday at 6.98. The Brewers bullpen hasn’t been much better, ranked 29th with a 6.92 ERA. Tyler Alexander starts for Milwaukee, coming off a 2024 season where he had a 5.08 ERA and gave up 1.9 HR/9. The Brewers offense, however, entered this series averaging just under 4.7 runs per game on the road.
Picks: Brewers Run Line -1.5 (+114) and Over 10.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Brewers RL -121 and Total 11.2)
