The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, May 22, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Favorites are 20-9 (69%, +7.00 units) in the last 29 games in the BAL-DET series

– The ROI on this trend is 24.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-143 vs DET)

* NY METS letdown in follow-up game after divisional series vs. Washington: 14-21 record (40%) for -16.28 units, ROI: -46.5%
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-105 at MIA)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 422-371 record for +47.46 units and an ROI of 6% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+135 at TOR)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 90-68 start for +0.03 units and an ROI of +0.01%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-163 vs PIT), BOSTON (-156 vs MIN)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 10-11 for -3.18 units and an ROI of -15.1%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-114 at SF)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 32-39 for -10.21 units and an ROI of -14.4%!
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-132 vs ATH)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 106-73 start for -2.80 units and an ROI of -1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+153 at PHI), TORONTO (-163 vs PIT), BOSTON (-156 vs MIN), SEATTLE (-119 at KC), TEXAS (-168 at LAA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 54-66 for +8.31 units. I still don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-126 vs STL), WASHINGTON (+178 at ATL)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 23-10 for -0.45 units and an ROI of -1.4%.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-218 vs COL)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 25-26 but for -14.65 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ATLANTA (-219 vs WSH)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 97-107 for +1.03 units. However, it did get back +11.68 units since the start of last week alone.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+153 at PHI), ST LOUIS (+104 at CIN), NY METS (-105 at MIA), DETROIT (+119 at BAL), SAN FRANCISCO (-105 vs CWS)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 57-73 start for -9.49 units (ROI -7.3%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 25-33 for -6.15 units and an ROI pf -10.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CINCINNATI (-126 vs STL), PITTSBURGH (+135 at TOR)
3-games – MILWAUKEE (-109 vs LAD), ATHLETICS (+109 at SD)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 48-59 for -5.90 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-114 vs NYM), BALTIMORE (-143 vs DET), KANSAS CITY (-102 vs SEA), LA ANGELS (+139 vs TEX), COLORADO (+178 at AZ)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 466-374 for +36.54 units and an ROI of 4.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, TAMPA BAY, BOSTON, ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, ATHLETICS

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 230-174 for +17.76 units and an ROI of 4.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-119 at KC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-112 at SF)
*WATCH FOR LA DODGERS at MIL (-110 CURRENTLY)*

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 142-182 for -37.05 units and an ROI of -11.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-102 vs SEA)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 398-337 but for -79.32 units and an ROI of -10.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-126 vs STL), TORONTO (-163 vs PIT), BOSTON (-156 vs MIN), BALTIMORE (-143 vs DET)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 422-371 record for +47.46 units and an ROI of 6% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+135 at TOR)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2058-1954 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -271.00 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-126 vs STL), ATLANTA (-219 vs WSH)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,079-2,650 (44%) for -269.63 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, DETROIT, ST LOUIS, NY METS, WASHINGTON, COLORADO

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 628-519 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.51 units, for an ROI of 2.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-132 vs ATH), ARIZONA (-218 vs COL)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 520-592 SU but for +73.88 units (ROI: 6.6%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 174-191 SU for +35.51 units in the last 365 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+119 at CHC), ST LOUIS (+104 at CIN), DETROIT (+119 at BAL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 294-306 run (+10.41 units, ROI: 1.8%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DETROIT (+119 at BAL)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 185-153 (+9.85 units, ROI: 2.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+153 at PHI)

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 35-71 (-8.69 units, ROI: -8.2%) in their last 106 tries.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+153 at PHI)

Winning Streak Betting System #8:
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks but playing as large underdogs (+137 or more) have had their totals go Over at a 59-39-5 (60.2%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-PHI (o/u at 6.5)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ST LOUIS +104 (+22 diff), CLEVELAND +153 (+18)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS -143 (+31 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLE-PHI OVER 6.5 (+0.8), MIN-BOS OVER 7.5 (+0.7), CWS-SF OVER 7 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: COL-AZ UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(961) TAMPA BAY (33-15) at (962) NEW YORK-AL (30-21)
Trend: Gerrit Cole’s teams are just 12-10 (-4.90 units) when he starts vs Tampa Bay in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-156 vs TB)

(965) DETROIT (20-31) at (966) BALTIMORE (21-29)
Trend: Chris Bassitt’s teams are 21-10 (+5.14 units) when he starts vs AL Central opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-143 vs DET)

(969) TEXAS (24-25) at (970) LOS ANGELES-AL (17-34)
Trend: TEX is 14-4 (+6.76 units) in the last 17 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-168 at LAA)
Trend: Grayson Rodriguez’s teams are 18-3 (+13.92 units) when he starts against below .500 teams in the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+139 vs TEX)

(971) HOUSTON (20-31) at (972) CHICAGO-NL (29-21)
Trend: CHC is 17-5 (+9.35 units) as a favorite in the -145 to -165 line range by starter Jameson Taillon in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NOT YET BUT WATCH FOR CHICAGO CUBS vs HOU (-143 CURRENTLY)

(973) CLEVELAND (30-22) at (974) PHILADELPHIA (25-25)
Trend: PHI is 33-7 (+19.97 units) in the favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-186 vs CLE)

(975) PITTSBURGH (26-24) at (976) TORONTO (23-27)
Trend: Kevin Gausman’s teams are 16-25 (-24.29 units) when he starts at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-163 vs PIT)

(977) ATHLETICS (26-24) at (978) SAN DIEGO (29-20)
Trend: Walker Buehler’s teams are 22-10 when he starts vs AL opponents (+10.56 units) since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-132 vs ATH)

Series #24: Detroit at Baltimore, Fri 5/22-Sun 5/24
Trend: Favorites are 20-9 (69%, +7.00 units) in the last 29 games in the BAL-DET series
– The ROI on this trend is 24.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-143 vs DET)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): ST LOUIS, TAMPA BAY, NY METS, ATHLETICS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO, ATHLETICS, CHICAGO WHITE SOX

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON, TORONTO

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NY METS  
Letdown after series vs. WASHINGTON: 14-21 (40%) -16.28 units, ROI: -46.5%
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-105 at MIA)

ATHLETICS     
Letdown after series vs. LA ANGELS: 14-21 (40%) -10.40 units, ROI: -29.7%
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+109 at SD)

SAN DIEGO     
Letdown after series vs. LA DODGERS: 18-21 (46.2%) -11.75 units, ROI: -30.1%
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-132 vs ATH)

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