Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:05 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (-150, 8)
The Rays (33-15) just swept the Orioles, winning the series finale 5-3 as -120 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Yankees (30-21) just split a four-game series against the Blue Jays, losing the series finale 2-0 as -145 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Rays hand the ball to righty Nick Martinez (4-1, 1.51 ERA) and the Yankees turn to fellow righty Gerrit Cole, who is making his 2026 debut after missing all of 2025 with an elbow injury.
This line opened with New York listed as a -150 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +130 road dog.
The public is leaning toward backing Cole in his return, with 57% of moneyline bets at DraftKings laying the chalk with the Yankees at home.
However, despite the majority of tickets backing the Yankees we’ve seen New York remain stagnant at -150. This signals a sneaky sharp line freeze on the Rays as the line has remained right where it’s at even though Tampa Bay is the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, the Rays are receiving 43% of moneyline bets and 64% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor.
Sweet spot dogs priced between +120 and +150, like the Rays here, are 106-119 (47%) but have produced a 9% ROI due to the plus money payouts.
Tampa Bay has additional betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and leading to more upset opportunities.
Divisional dogs off a win, like Tampa Bay here, are 50-46 (52%) with a 17% ROI this season.
The Rays are 7-2 in Martinez’s nine starts this season. He has posted a 1.08 ERA in three May starts, allowing only 2 earned runs in 16.2 innings pitched.
Tampa Bay also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Rays were off yesterday while the Yankees played the Blue Jays.
7:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox (-150, 7.5)
The Twins (23-27) just won two of three against the Astros, taking the series finale 4-1 as -140 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Red Sox (22-27) just swept the Royals, winning the series finale 4-3 as -105 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Twins start lefty Connor Prielipp (1-2, 2.88 ERA) and the Red Sox tap fellow southpaw Payton Tolle (2-2, 2.05 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -145 home favorite and Minnesota a +125 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Red Sox at Fenway, pushing Boston up from -145 to -150, with some shops touching -155.
At Circa, Boston is taking in only 33% of moneyline bets but a whopping 88% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in Vegas.
When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the home favorite off a win who made the playoffs the previous year, like Boston, is 48-23 (68%) with an 11% ROI since 2025.
When both teams are coming off a day off, which is also the case here, the home favorite is 34-16 (68%) with a 14% ROI this season.
Boston has additional betting system and correlative betting value as a non-division favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the lack of familiarity and fewer expected runs scored historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Red Sox are hitting .273 against lefties this season (3rd best in MLB) while the Twins are hitting .244 (12th).
Boston also has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.98 (2nd) compared to 5.00 for Minnesota (3rd worst).
7:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers (-110, 8.5)
The Dodgers (31-19) just took two of three against the Padres, winning the series finale 4-0 as -200 road favorites. On the other hand, the Brewers (29-18) just swept the Cubs, taking the series finale 5-0 as +100 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Dodgers send out lefty Justin Wrobleski (6-1, 2.49 ERA) and the Brewers go with righty Logan Henderson (1-1, 3.50 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -120 road favorite and Milwaukee a +100 home dog.
The public can’t believe this line is so short and 75% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to back Los Angeles as a short chalk favorite.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the Dodgers fall from -120 to -110. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Brewers, as the line has moved toward Milwaukee (+100 to -110) despite being the unpopular play.
Essentially, smart Brew Crew money has moved this game down to a pick’em.
Milwaukee is only receiving 25% of moneyline bets at DraftKings in one of the most heavily bet games of the night, offering notable “bet against the public” contrarian value.
