MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, June 26.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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I’ve edited it for spelling, grammar, punctuation, and readability while preserving your voice, analysis, and formatting.
6:45 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott has improved greatly throughout the season. He owns a 3.83 ERA with 6.8 strikeouts and 4.1 walks per nine innings overall, but has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 10 straight starts while posting a 2.41 ERA during that span. Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes has a 2.86 ERA with 10.9 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings and faces a Reds lineup that ranks 21st in scoring with 4.2 runs per game.
Pick: Reds vs. Pirates Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.4
7:05 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Nationals starting pitcher Andrew Alvarez has been reliable with a 3.34 ERA and 2.73 fielding independent while allowing just 0.6 home runs per nine innings and recording 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers has a 5.30 ERA with 6.7 strikeouts and three walks per nine innings and faces a Nationals lineup that leads the league in scoring with nearly 5.4 runs per game.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline +120 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals +112 and Total 9.4
7:10 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren has put together a solid season with a 3.45 ERA, 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings, and 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. He has been even better on the road with a 2.97 ERA and fewer than 0.3 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Red Sox starting pitcher Payton Tolle owns a 3.08 ERA with 0.8 home runs and 2.5 walks per nine innings and is backed by a Red Sox bullpen that ranks third in ERA at 3.20. However, the Red Sox lineup ranks last in home run production with just 3.4 runs per game at home.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline -110 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees Moneyline -122 and Total 8.1
7:10 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Diamondbacks give Brandon Pfaadt his first start since April 11 and his first appearance of any kind since June 3. He has struggled this season, posting a 5.92 ERA with 1.7 home runs and four walks per nine innings.
Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez has been a master at inducing soft contact. While he records only 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings, he owns a 2.73 ERA while allowing just 0.8 home runs and 1.7 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -118
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -152
7:40 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
White Sox starting pitcher David Sandlin has struggled in his three career MLB appearances, posting an 8.10 ERA while allowing 2.7 home runs and 4.7 walks per nine innings.
Royals starting pitcher Stephen Kolek pitches to a lot of contact with just 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings, but he does not issue many free passes, allowing only 1.9 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Royals Moneyline +116
Greg’s Handicap: Royals +103
8:10 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins
Rockies starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano pitches to quite a bit of contact with only 5.2 strikeouts per nine innings, but he has posted a respectable 4.31 ERA while allowing 1.6 home runs and 2.5 walks per nine innings.
Twins starting pitcher Taj Bradley owns a 4.11 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings, but he is recording 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings and has allowed just 0.9 home runs per nine innings at home.
The Rockies’ recent offensive numbers have been heavily skewed by their 23-run outburst against the Athletics in Las Vegas less than two weeks ago.
Pick: Rockies vs. Twins Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.1
9:45 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starting pitcher Walker Buehler has pitched better than his 3.96 ERA would indicate, posting a 3.28 fielding independent while allowing just 0.6 home runs and 2.8 walks per nine innings.
Dodgers starting pitcher Roki Sasaki owns a 4.76 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings, and his ERA jumps to 6.19 on the road. The Dodgers back him with a bullpen that ranks 10th in ERA at 3.71, while the Padres bullpen ranks second at 3.07.
Pick: Padres Moneyline +135 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Padres +112 and Total 8.1
