MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, June 21.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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6:10 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers
Tigers starting pitcher Framber Valdez has struggled to generate strikeouts this season, posting a 4.09 ERA with 3.4 walks per nine innings and a career-low 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that ranks 25th in scoring with fewer than 4.1 runs per game.
The Yankees lineup has remained productive even without Aaron Judge, averaging more than 4.9 runs per game this month. Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole has been solid since returning from the injured list, posting a 2.57 ERA. While his strikeout numbers are down overall at 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings, that figure has climbed back to nine strikeouts per nine innings over his last four starts.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline -124
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -141
6:40 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins
Rangers starting pitcher Kumar Rocker owns a 4.17 ERA with one home run and 3.9 walks allowed per nine innings. He is backed by a lineup that ranks 27th in scoring with just over four runs per game.
Marlins starter Tyler Phillips owns a 3.10 ERA with only 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. His ERA drops to 0.83 at home but rises to 6.86 on the road. Both bullpens have been strong this season, as the Marlins rank fourth in bullpen ERA at 3.33, while the Rangers rank seventh at 3.48.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -117 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -146 and Total 7.9
7:07 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown has produced a dynamic 13.2 strikeouts per nine innings and a 1.10 ERA, but it is a very small sample size of just three starts this season, and this will be only his second start since April.
The Blue Jays lineup ranks second in fewest strikeouts per at-bat, while starter Dylan Cease owns a 2.71 ERA with 13.6 strikeouts per nine innings. However, he can run into command issues, allowing 3.8 walks per nine innings. He faces an Astros offense that ranks 10th in road scoring with more than 4.6 runs per game this season and is backed by a bullpen that ranks 23rd in ERA at 4.64.
Pick: Astros vs. Blue Jays Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.6
7:10 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Brewers will give Brandon Woodruff his first MLB start since April 30. He did not look sharp during his minor league rehab assignment, allowing six runs across nine innings over two starts.
Reds starter Brady Singer has had a rough season, posting a 5.32 ERA and 6.15 fielding independent with 2.3 home runs allowed per nine innings. He faces a Brewers lineup that entered Sunday ranked second in the league in run production, averaging more than 5.3 runs per game.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +145 and Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Reds +135 and Total 9.8
7:40 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
The Guardians are experiencing a power outage offensively, averaging just 3.2 runs per game over their last 15 contests. However, they could get back on track against White Sox starter Anthony Kay, who owns a 4.61 ERA and 5.32 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs and 3.6 walks allowed per nine innings.
Guardians starter Gavin Williams has a 3.83 ERA with 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he is also generating 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that has posted a 3.39 ERA since May 1, ranking ninth in the league. The White Sox rank 17th during that span with a 3.79 bullpen ERA.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline -107
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -130
8:40 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies
Red Sox starter Jake Bennett has pitched better than his 4.79 ERA would indicate, owning a 3.33 fielding independent with 0.4 home runs and 2.2 walks allowed per nine innings.
Rockies starter Ryan Feltner owns a 5.05 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.5 walks allowed per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA at 5.07, while the Red Sox bullpen ranks third at 3.15.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline -116 and Under 12.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -168 and Total 11.8
