MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, July 18.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
2:20 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs
The wind is expected to be blowing out at Wrigley Field during the morning and afternoon before shifting direction later in the evening. While Matthew Boyd’s 3.58 fielding independent compared to his 4.50 ERA suggests positive regression could be coming, he’s getting only 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings since returning from the injured list after averaging 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings for the season. Twins starting pitcher Taj Bradley owns a 3.59 ERA with 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his past five starts, though Minnesota ranks 29th in bullpen ERA at 5.19.
Pick: Twins Moneyline +125 and Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Twins +122 and Total 9.7
4:10 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Marlins starting pitcher Max Meyer has been superb this season, posting a 2.58 ERA with 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. However, his 3.52 fielding independent and 3.2 walks per nine innings suggest some regression could be on the horizon. Brewers starting pitcher Shane Drohan owns a 3.09 ERA and 3.24 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs and 2.6 walks allowed per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks fourth in ERA at 3.47 and an offense that ranks fourth in scoring at 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline -130 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -132 and Total 8.3
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Red Sox starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval is making just his second start over the past two seasons. In eight minor league starts this season, he posted a 3.49 ERA with 8.4 strikeouts and 4.9 walks per nine innings. Rays starter Ian Seymour has pitched better than his 4.59 ERA would indicate, as he owns a 4.09 fielding independent with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings. He also benefits from facing a Red Sox team that entered this series 17-27 at home while averaging just 3.55 runs per game at Fenway Park, the lowest home scoring average in baseball.
Pick: Rays Moneyline +100 and Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -122 and Total 9.1
Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros
Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers owns a 4.48 ERA with 6.9 strikeouts and 3.1 walks per nine innings. Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti has a 4.50 ERA with 4.8 walks per nine innings, but Houston has ranked second in bullpen ERA since June 1 at 2.93. He also benefits from facing an Orioles lineup that ranks 18th in road scoring with 4.3 runs per game.
Pick: Astros Moneyline -110
Greg’s Handicap: Astros -124
7:10 PM Eastern (Game 2 of Doubleheader)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians
Pirates starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft owns a 3.49 ERA and 3.32 fielding independent with 10.2 strikeouts and 2.1 walks per nine innings. He faces a Guardians lineup that has averaged just 3.6 runs per game over its past 35 contests. Cleveland is expected to send Logan Allen to the mound for his first start of the 2026 season after logging only four relief innings this year. Last season, Allen posted a 4.25 ERA with seven strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -120 (Game 2 of Doubleheader)
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -136
8:08 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo has pronounced home/road splits, posting a 2.10 ERA with 0.4 home runs allowed per nine innings at home compared to a 6.28 ERA with 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road. Giants starter Logan Webb also has significant splits, owning a career 2.92 ERA at home with 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings compared to a 3.95 ERA on the road. San Francisco is backed by a bullpen that ranks 21st in ERA at 4.50, while Seattle’s bullpen ranks fourth at 3.56.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline -130 and Over 6.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -154 and Total 7.3
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Ryan Weathers has struggled to keep the ball in the park, posting a 4.15 ERA while allowing 1.5 home runs per nine innings. He faces a Dodgers lineup that leads the league in road scoring at six runs per game. Dodgers starter Emmet Sheehan has had his own struggles, posting a 4.81 ERA with 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. For his career, he owns a 3.20 ERA at home with 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings, compared to a 5.46 ERA and 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road.
Pick: Dodgers vs. Yankees Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.2
10:05 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Athletics
Nationals pitcher Zack Littell is expected to either start or serve as the bulk pitcher on Saturday. He should feel fortunate that his ERA is only 4.90, as he owns a 6.09 fielding independent with 5.7 strikeouts and 2.3 home runs allowed per nine innings. Athletics starter JT Ginn draws the difficult assignment of facing the league’s second-highest scoring offense, as the Nationals average 5.4 runs per game. Ginn has posted a solid 3.67 ERA while allowing 1.1 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Athletics Moneyline -125 and Over 10.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Athletics -156 and Total 11.1
