MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, July 4.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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11:05 AM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals
Pirates starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft has put together a nice season with a 3.33 ERA, 10.1 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings, and a 3.11 fielding independent. Nationals starting pitcher Zack Littell owns a 5.29 ERA with a 6.47 fielding independent and 2.5 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he has posted a 3.86 ERA over his last 11 appearances.
Pick: Pirates vs. Nationals Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.9
1:35 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
Twins starting pitcher Zebby Matthews has a 4.15 ERA with 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings this season, but he has pitched better of late with two runs or fewer allowed in four of his past five starts. He faces a Yankees lineup that entered Friday having scored just 37 runs over its past 14 games. Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodón was carrying a 3.30 ERA with 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings and only 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he was scratched late Friday. The Yankees are expected to rely heavily on a bullpen that ranks second in ERA at 3.19.
Pick: Twins vs. Yankees Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.1
7:10 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene is making his first MLB appearance of 2026 after beginning the season on the injured list. While his 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings in three minor league rehab starts were below his usual standard, he did not allow a run. Orioles starting pitcher Brandon Young owns a 3.11 ERA with only 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings, but his 3.96 fielding independent with 3.4 walks and 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings suggests some regression could be ahead.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -120
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -145
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen has been outstanding this season with a 2.45 ERA while allowing only 0.9 home runs and 1.6 walks per nine innings. Astros starter Hunter Brown has made only five starts this season, but he has been superb, posting a 1.78 ERA with 11.4 strikeouts and just 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Astros Moneyline -108
Greg’s Handicap: Astros -121
8:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals
Phillies starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo has pitched better than his 3.88 ERA would indicate, as he owns a 3.10 fielding independent with 10.7 strikeouts and 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. Royals starter Michael Wacha has a 3.31 ERA with 0.8 home runs and 2.5 walks allowed per nine innings while facing a Phillies lineup that ranks 26th in road scoring at four runs per game. Kansas City ranks 23rd in scoring overall with 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Phillies vs. Royals Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
9:40 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Athletics
Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara owns a 4.20 ERA this season with a lower 3.99 fielding independent, allowing 0.9 home runs and 2.5 walks per nine innings. Athletics starter Aaron Civale has struggled of late, posting a 5.05 ERA and 5.36 fielding independent with 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings while recording only 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The Athletics also have the bullpen disadvantage, ranking 27th in ERA at 4.98, while the Marlins rank seventh at 3.64.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -115
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -136
