MLB Simulation Projected Scores Provide Solid Handicapping Foundation:
Last week, a longtime VSiN subscriber asked me how my MLB score projections do. I thought I should answer this important question with its own article. The short answer is, at least for 2026, they are providing a solid foundation for bettors to use as part of an overall MLB handicapping recipe. While there are some specific profitable situations for using them so far this season, which I will share below, they are best used in conjunction with many of the other data pieces offered on VSiN, including my own Analytics Reports, the team trend analysis, Greg Peterson’s lines/scores projections and even the expert best bets.
That said, this is exactly how my score projections have fared for 2026 in games through Sunday, July 12:
Sides
* Using the score projections for ALL games, backing whichever team the simulation projections say will win has gone 793-638 for -119.2 units. This is an ROI of -8.3%.
* In MLB wagering, we are playing against a money line, looking to find value against an actual line. This is where a bigger advantage has come in using my simulation projections. Using the score projections for ALL games, backing whichever team has the edge in pricing against the actual, that team’s record is 696-712 for -43.92 units for a ROI of -3.1%. This is obviously a huge improvement over simply taking the team that should win by formula and a huge edge over blind wagering.
* Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 397-386 for +11.65 units, good for 1.5% ROI.
More often than not, these score projections will give these 10-cent edges to underdogs, as my model, as well as my own personal wagering belief, is that underdogs and smaller-priced favorites offer the best chance at long-term success in betting MLB. This +11.65 unit tally shows a profit on a sample of 783 games, and I would challenge anyone’s mathematical models to beat this over the course of a half-season of baseball.
Totals
Of course, we also have totals when using my projected simulation scores. These are the current numbers for the 2026 season so far when using my total projections against the actual totals offered:
* Using the score projections for ALL games, backing whichever side of the total the simulation projections say will win has gone 342-325 for -19.05 units (ROI -2.9%) on Over projections and 348-349 for -39.12 units (ROI -5.6%) on Under projections. Both of these numbers beat blind wagering results, so these score projections do provide some advantage when considering totals.
* Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 RUN edge on either the Over or Under. On Over projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 14-8 for +4.48 units and an ROI of 20.8%. On Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Unders are 23-10 for +11.2 units and a ROI of 33.9%.
* Naturally, the angles just above have produced only 55 plays over the last 3 1/2 months. If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider that when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 90-75 for +6 units and an ROI of 3.6%.
To understand the power of these advantages, you really have to consider how much MLB lines have changed in the regulated USA market. The average game price has a 15-cent line, which makes it really difficult for bettors who do the daily grind and play a lot of games. Although there are some weak spots, I’m encouraged by what these results above provide, that being a solid foundation to use my projected simulation scores as part of your daily routine.
If you’d like to try getting behind these score projections regularly, I would encourage you to visit the DAILY MATCHUP RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. When you’re there, you will find a score projection for every game plus an Eff Line (Effective Line) for the home team using my math model. When the line for either team is off by 10 cents or more, it would meet this criteria. Same for the totals being 1.0 run off (or 0.6 on Unders). We will start tracking these now daily on the VSiN Analytics Reports.
Best of luck in the second half of the season.
