The 2026 record now sits at 82–49–6 on the year.
Dave Ross and I were joined by Doug Vazquez of Sports Illustrated on this weeks First Strike. Make sure to catch it everywhere you listen to your podcasts and also available on YouTube!
Let’s dig into this weeks numbers.
Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan
There’s nothing but respect for Jared Cannonier. The Killa Gorilla has always been down for a fight, always shown up, and always given everything he has inside the octagon. But the numbers are telling a story that’s hard to ignore, and at 42 years old with a 1–3 mark in his last four, the window is clearly narrowing.
His most recent outing was a decision loss to Michael Page nearly a year ago last August. Across from him is Christian Leroy Duncan, England’s rising middleweight with a four-fight win streak. Most recently a decision over Roman Dolidze in March and a 14–2 professional record built since his pro debut in 2020. At 31 years old, he’s a man trending in exactly the right direction.
The xR% gap reflects that divergence clearly. Cannonier has dipped to 45%, below the red flag line, a number that reflects the rough recent stretch and the accumulated wear of fighting elite competition late in a career. Duncan checks in at a strong 64%, consistently winning rounds and building the kind of statistical foundation you want to see from a legitimate contender.
Both men carry finishing ability. Between them, 12 knockouts combined. But it’s Cannonier who carries the vulnerability with three knockout losses in the UFC and eight times knocked down across his career. Duncan has never been stopped in the UFC.
The striking numbers separate them further. Cannonier lands 4.42 significant strikes per minute with a near-even +0.08 differential, so he’s absorbing shot for shot in exchanges. Duncan lands an almost identical volume at 4.43 per minute but posts a +1.85 differential, absorbing only 2.59 significant strikes per minute. He’s landing at the same rate as Cannonier while taking far less damage in return. That’s the kind of clean profile that keeps a fighter out of trouble against a power puncher like Jared.
The ground game isn’t a major factor here. Cannonier holds a 47% control rate with 10 takedowns at 40% accuracy. More active than Duncan’s two takedowns at 17%, but Duncan defends at 63% and the UFC clearly wants to see this fight play out on the feet.
The model runs it through and lands firmly on Duncan with a strong Tier 1 Favorite designation. His moneyline has climbed from –300 to –340 depending on the shop, and that price takes the straight bet completely off the table on a small card like this one.
Where the value lives is in the method. Duncan by decision at +115 is the safer prop given his defensive profile and Cannonier’s durability. But the number that catches the eye is Duncan by knockout at +180. Cannonier has been stopped three times and dropped eight times in the UFC, and Duncan’s clean striking efficiency gives him a real path to a finish. We’re watching for that prop to officially arrive before committing, but it’s the target.
No straight bet here, the price is simply too steep. The prop market is the play.
Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman
Dricus Du Plessis returns after dropping the middleweight championship to Khamzat Chimaev last August. The man who beat him twice, Sean Strickland, now holds the belt again, which means DDP’s path back to gold runs through whoever gets in his way first. He’s hungry, he’s dangerous, and he’s still one of the most awkward, difficult fighters to prepare for in the division.
Across from him is Kamaru Usman, the former welterweight champion making his move to middleweight. This isn’t entirely new territory for Usman, he’s gone up in weight before, but at 39 years old and more than a year removed from his last fight, the questions are real. That last fight, for the record, was a very strong performance against Joaquin Buckley as a +205 underdog, winning the majority of five hard rounds. Don’t sleep on what he can still do.
The first number worth flagging is the xR%. And it goes the way you might not expect. Usman sits at a strong 79% xR%, a championship-level mark that reflects a career spent controlling and winning rounds at the highest level. DDP, despite his title run, checks in at 56%. A number that took a hit after five grinding rounds with Chimaev and reflects a fighter whose style sometimes costs him on the cards even in wins.
The striking profiles tell an interesting story. DDP lands 5.18 significant strikes per minute with a +0.85 differential. His striking is unconventional, awkward, and effective in its own way. Usman lands less at 4.16 per minute but with a +1.50 differential, absorbing only 2.67 significant strikes per minute. He’s elusive, he’s efficient, and he avoids damage better than his reputation as a pressure wrestler might suggest. Both men have logged knockdowns, Usman with 10, DDP with four. But neither has scored one in years, and the power question at a new weight class is one worth asking for Usman.
Now here’s where the fight truly lives.
Usman holds a 91% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, one of the highest marks you’ll find anywhere on the roster, and has scored 63 takedowns across his UFC career at 44% accuracy, averaging 4.04 attempts per five minutes. When he decides to take someone down, he commits relentlessly and he’s exceptionally good at it.
Du Plessis defends takedowns at only 35%. Chimaev took him down 12 times in their title fight. The takedown defense appeared to be a hole in DDP’s game that night, and Usman is one of the most accomplished wrestling-pressure fighter in the history of the welterweight division. If he brings that same blueprint to 185 pounds, the path to dominating this fight is clearly mapped out.
The model processes all of it, with the standard reminder that weight class changes aren’t accounted for in the data, and lands on the former welterweight champion. Kamaru Usman receives a Live Dog designation.
Let’s be transparent here. We were 8–3 on Live Dogs earlier in the year before a cold stretch brought us to 8–8. The category is still profitable overall. The goal now is to get one home.
This is a smaller betting card. The number is too good to ignore. Usman only takes a fight like this if he genuinely believes he can win it, and the data gives him a real path to do exactly that.
I took a bite at +220 and that number has dropped to around +190 today. I’m not strongly confident that less than +200 is worth the play, but either way, the model predicts a win for Kamaru Usman this Saturday.
Check out FightingWithNumbers.com for the full model tale of the tapes, grades, and reports on the fights this weekend.
Good luck Saturday. Enjoy the violence.
